Jester January

[kazimirkai]

Irritating to even root for this one because I'm going to be at the AMS conference in New Orleans from the 10th to the 13th. I almost hope it doesn't end up being a huge event since that would be miserable to miss.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

39 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I said that yesterday....there is going to be one suite where it just explodes onto the scene. 

I’m taking a backseat on this one, because I’m tired of the “ if variable A,B, and C change and do X,Y, and Z then the storm might hit!” Talk. It’s become exhausting. It’s not even about discussing what the model actually shows.

However, the all or nothing scenario seems most likely to me. It’s either going to phase and tuck, or miss the phase or phase too late and be way out to sea.

[ineedsnow]

Icon should be better

[Prismshine Productions]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

Icon should be better

less positive tilt through 90

[Layman]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m taking a backseat on this one, because I’m tired of the “ if variable A,B, and C change and do X,Y, and Z then the storm might hit!” Talk. It’s become exhausting. It’s not even about discussing what the model actually shows.

However, the all or nothing scenario seems most likely to me. It’s either going to phase and tuck, or miss the phase or phase too late and be way out to sea.

In weather, when is this NOT a thing?  It seems there's a near infinite amount of variables that can play with most any weather pattern aside from perhaps a summer COC teasing season.  

[Prismshine Productions]

not as much energy being left behind over Mexico through 96

[Prismshine Productions]

Icon H5 damn near identical to the 12z GFS at 102

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, Prismshine Productions said:

Icon H5 damn near identical to the 12z GFS at 102

everything better aligned

[cut]

Well, I bought a new 26" Ariens - kiss this one goodbye. And I broke my other superstition rule - I talked about the GFS 12Z output and showed it to the sales guy!!! Sorry everyone!!!!

[ineedsnow]

Nice trend on the ICON

[ORH_wxman]

Northern stream looking healthier on ICON....not gonna produce this run, but very close. I wonder if this is one of those very few razor's edge solutions where we get light snow from it.

 

I think if the ICON goes one more nudge at 00z like we saw this run, it would prob go nuts. This threat is ugly to follow because it's not one where the low is going to slowly move from Bermuda to ACK each run....it's going to jump when you get a good phase.

On other threats, you're trying to get slightly stronger energy boosting the downstream ridge, or a better PNA ridge helping to dig it further....on this one, we're talking a full phase.

[Spanks45]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

everything better aligned

It's the confluence shoving things back WSW, keeping the ridge from folding over.....

[SJonesWX]

9 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m taking a backseat on this one, because I’m tired of the “ if variable A,B, and C change and do X,Y, and Z then the storm might hit!” Talk. It’s become exhausting. It’s not even about discussing what the model actually shows.

However, the all or nothing scenario seems most likely to me. It’s either going to phase and tuck, or miss the phase or phase too late and be way out to sea.

beer?

like @Layman said, there are a ton of variables in any weather event. Most of us enjoy reading those types of posts so we can learn what it takes for something to go right, or to go wrong. if we didn't talk about them, then might as well just shut the forum down.

[40/70 Benchmark]

30 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Kid number 5 incoming?

Not if its on the keyboard, no...

[EastonSN+]

Resembles the cmc.

[radarman]

41 minutes ago, kazimirkai said:

Irritating to even root for this one because I'm going to be at the AMS conference in New Orleans from the 10th to the 13th. I almost hope it doesn't end up being a huge event since that would be miserable to miss.

Frenchmen St jazz and a hurricane or 3 will help ease the pain.  But yeah, glad I skipped it this year.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

It's the confluence shoving things back WSW, keeping the ridge from folding over.....

Yea, definitive move toward the GFS, but not there yet.

Still favor GFS like outcome here.

[Zeus]

22 minutes ago, kazimirkai said:

Irritating to even root for this one because I'm going to be at the AMS conference in New Orleans from the 10th to the 13th. I almost hope it doesn't end up being a huge event since that would be miserable to miss.

Safe travels, little lamb

[Prismshine Productions]

just noticed the 12z CFS had the storm too

[78Blizzard]

Big improvement on the ICON at h5 from 12z.  If the run went past 120 hrs, the next couple of panels would have had it moving toward the benchmark.

[ineedsnow]

4 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

just noticed the 12z CFS had the storm too

It's coming!! I'm all in.. 

[cut]

3 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Big improvement on the ICON at h5 from 12z.  If the run went past 120 hrs, the next couple of panels would have had it moving toward the benchmark.

Way better - almost neutral there.

[78Blizzard]

At least the trends have been better today thus far.

[ineedsnow]

[78Blizzard]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

That cluster on the NC coast is where the ICON has it at that hr.

[Go Kart Mozart]

30 minutes ago, cut said:

Well, I bought a new 26" Ariens - kiss this one goodbye. And I broke my other superstition rule - I talked about the GFS 12Z output and showed it to the sales guy!!! Sorry everyone!!!!

That's awesome...can you wheel it up to Woodlawn and do my driveway?

[Prismshine Productions]

tick back from 12z through 45 but could be noise

[78Blizzard]

Everyone is riveted to each GFS panel as it comes out... 

[Lava Rock]

22 minutes ago, Zeus said:

Safe travels, little lamb

which one is the real Wolf?

[ROOSTA]

39 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m taking a backseat on this one, because I’m tired of the “ if variable A,B, and C change and do X,Y, and Z then the storm might hit!” Talk. It’s become exhausting. It’s not even about discussing what the model actually shows.

However, the all or nothing scenario seems most likely to me. It’s either going to phase and tuck, or miss the phase or phase too late and be way out to sea.

WTF happened to you? I think you should find another hobby. FULL STOP
The A,B,C, and X,Y,Z is meteorology, nothing but math. Once you figure it out then come back and tell us how you did it.