Jester January

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Very good move on the GEFS. 
 

00z

 

06z

 

12z

Can you post the members?  (Not a euphemism)?

[cleetussnow]

9 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Is that a euphemism?

I see what you did there...

[Layman]

9 minutes ago, Heisy said:

The phasing shortwave that the GFS drops into the trough is off the coast of Alaska currently fwiw, such a crucial piece


.

 

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yeah, This one

 

Does this imply that it should be, or is getting well sampled at this point and therefore can be more reliably believed to be participating as the models are showing?

[H2Otown_WX]

6 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

It really seems as if the OP runs have become a roll of the dice ensemble member until say 2-3 cycles out

Fixed

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Layman said:

 

Does this imply that it should be, or is getting well sampled at this point and therefore can be more reliably believed to be participating as the models are showing?

We probably need to see a few more cycles showing something similar to believe it.

[WinterSnow]

Seeing some light snow in western CT. A pleasant surprise.

[UnitedWx]

19 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Dr. No is waiting in the wings to administer the jab.

I remember a big one way back in like 2013 when the title of the thread was... Dr. NO says YES! Lets do that again

[Damage In Tolland]

GEFS have lead the way last few days 

[Typhoon Tip]

just for help

spread is tending more west ...   this is a miss as is, but is also trending -

[ineedsnow]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

GEFS have lead the way last few days 

Some monster hits

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Jan 2011 also curled up into the gulf of Maine....this one kind of slides due east after reaching a certain latitude. Looks more like 1/27/11 by the time it gets up here...maybe a bit more robust and a little north of that one...but same type of sliding east.

Yeah, Not a fan and usually not a good outcome up here, We really need to see a bit more relaxation of the blocking to get this further north before the ENE move, As intense as this was at the surface and only gets to that lat before moving east, Tells me something weaker is going to be worse and maybe even further south.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah that is a great signal on the GEFS.

[ORH_wxman]

Ukie looking a lot better through 84h....won't be like the GFS because the southern stream is dragging a bit, but the northern stream looks much better. Hopefully a good sign for Euro later.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

A ton of west leaners and big hits for CT. 

[H2Otown_WX]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Some monster hits

Congrats ALB-BTV?

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Can you post the members?  (Not a euphemism)?

00z

06z

12z

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Some monster hits

I think it’s happening now. Hard to convince otherwise .

[PWMan]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

We probably need to see a few more cycles showing something similar to believe it.

Especially those of us who are farthest NE and the most vulnerable to being fringed. Not much room for error.

[UnitedWx]

Lets just hope our phase doesn't turn into something like this

 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, PWMan said:

Especially those of us who are farthest NE and the most vulnerable to being fringed. Not much room for error.

We will need more help, I'm skeptical.

[Go Kart Mozart]

10 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Is 100-150 miles too much to ask?

Yes. Go away!

[Typhoon Tip]

okay, this is what i wanted to see happen, the spread migration is n-w

this is not atypical for west atlantic/continental interface cyclogen ( coastal developement ) as the lower to 850 mb thermal packing is not really very well resolved among the members, so they tend to drift their solutions e ( at this range...) of where the best discrete b-c gradient aligns. 

in this case, with nascent cold air abutting the g-string heat source, the higher res operational run is more likely to be correct if/when running that much powerful q-g forcing right over the thermal wall - it's prooobabliy why the operational run is making this look so compact -  ... it's a little like 2005 dec, only detonating 6 to 9 hrs sooner and tracking slightly s.

[Snowcrazed71]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think it’s happening now. Hard to convince otherwise .

Please don't give it the kiss of Doom..lol

But yes, we're on the good side of things

[ineedsnow]

Ukie is meh

[EastonSN+]

9 minutes ago, WinterSnow said:

Seeing some light snow in western CT. A pleasant surprise.

Yep roads are covered already grass is getting covered.

[wokeupthisam]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

We will need more help, I'm skeptical.

Really?  Couldn't tell, looking at your avatar... lol   I'm intrigued but don't think we're going to have a good handle until Wed earliest.  A lot of moving parts in the flow and many aren't sampled well and won't be until then.  I think we'll see more waffling on the models until those pieces are initialized better.  Signal is there and potential is high, even up here I think.  Fun to watch it unfold.

[UnitedWx]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

Ukie is meh

I wouldn't be concerned... he gave up the sauce for the new year. Baby steps with the less important models. I really want to see the Euro bite soon

[ineedsnow]

Just now, UnitedWx said:

I wouldn't be concerned... he gave up the sauce for the new year. Baby steps with the less important models. I really want to see the Euro bite soon

Ukie was a little better but not even close to enough.. atleast it wasn't worse

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, UnitedWx said:

I wouldn't be concerned... he gave up the sauce for the new year. Baby steps with the less important models. I really want to see the Euro bite soon

Ukie had a vastly improved northern stream this run....southern stream still dragging which is why it can't produce the bomb. There's a non-linear response to these features.

[dryslot]

Just now, wokeupthisam said:

Really?  Couldn't tell, looking at your avatar... lol   I'm intrigued but don't think we're going to have a good handle until Wed earliest.  A lot of moving parts in the flow and many aren't sampled well and won't be until then.  I think we'll see more waffling on the models until those pieces are initialized better.  Signal is there and potential is high, even up here I think.  Fun to watch it unfold.

I changed that the other day from my Feb69 one to change up the juju as this is what has been happening to us.