ineedsnow Posted Monday at 04:32 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:32 PM Just now, Snowcrazed71 said: I can only imagine what the accumulation map shows for the GFS model. Damn 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted Monday at 04:32 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:32 PM 7 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: I like how the block causes it to shoot straight east from the Delmarva Well some of us do not. 1 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted Monday at 04:33 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:33 PM Canadian basically the same maybe a touch more snow from the initial overrunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted Monday at 04:34 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:34 PM That will keep the dryslot well south if it happened like that. It's a good evolution for higher end totals since you stay right in the heart of all the inflow and CCB.The phasing shortwave that the GFS drops into the trough is off the coast of Alaska currently fwiw, such a crucial piece . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted Monday at 04:34 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:34 PM 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: The finer details will still need to be worked out if we even have a similar scenario going forward, The main thing now i think is we need to see more consistency from the OP models going forward to assume this is not another head fake. Agreed. I am internally excited right now but waiting another 24 hours before I get overly excited. Probably better to wait until Wednesday to do that but all the pieces are there...its just about the timing. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted Monday at 04:34 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:34 PM This is a wild 6-hour panel. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted Monday at 04:35 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:35 PM 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: We can only hope for the Euro to be in line with the GFS! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted Monday at 04:36 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:36 PM 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That will keep the dryslot well south if it happened like that. It's a good evolution for higher end totals since you stay right in the heart of all the inflow and CCB. Any analogs (not December '92 lol) come to mind looking at that run? Feb '13? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted Monday at 04:36 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:36 PM 4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: well in the last half hour a lot of members trended north Is that a euphemism? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted Monday at 04:36 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:36 PM 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: This is a wild 6-hour panel. Areas in that deform band could see 2' of snow with 15:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted Monday at 04:36 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:36 PM 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: Agreed. I am internally excited right now but waiting another 24 hours before I get overly excited. Probably better to wait until Wednesday to do that but all the pieces are there...its just about the timing. Yea we need euro to hop on and then can’t afford step backs in subsequent cycles. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted Monday at 04:37 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:37 PM Just now, moneypitmike said: Is that a euphemism? I think it was...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted Monday at 04:37 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:37 PM 9 minutes ago, Heisy said: It’s all about the N branch lobe that dives down on the GFS. How often does GFS win model battles with major features? Not often. CMC evolution makes more reasonable sense, it’s strong enough with southern energy to create some coastal precipitation. I hope the GFS is right, but until the euro has anything like it I’d toss personally . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted Monday at 04:38 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:38 PM Don't start a thread for this yet... Tuesday at the earliest. And it should be Ray that starts it 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted Monday at 04:38 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:38 PM 32 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: The swings on the OPs are ridiculous, especially inside of 5 days....especially at the 500 level It really seems as if the OP runs have become a roll of the dice ensemble member until say 2-3 days out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted Monday at 04:38 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:38 PM 3 minutes ago, Heisy said: The phasing shortwave that the GFS drops into the trough is off the coast of Alaska currently fwiw, such a crucial piece . Yes, you mean the piece that comes over the top and gives it the cold beef injection from Manitoba? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted Monday at 04:39 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:39 PM 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Agreed. I am internally excited right now but waiting another 24 hours before I get overly excited. Probably better to wait until Wednesday to do that but all the pieces are there...its just about the timing. So even though the Canadian didn't have a similar outcome, that one probably doesn't hold as much weight as the GFS? And I get what you're saying, we need to get a little closer to get a definite idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Monday at 04:39 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:39 PM This isn't Feb 2013. I get a Jan 2011 vibe a bit with that precip distribution and temps...but that was more nrn stream I believe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted Monday at 04:39 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:39 PM 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Don't start a thread for this yet... Tuesday at the earliest. And it should be Ray that starts it After Wednesday’s 12z runs. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted Monday at 04:40 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:40 PM Weird to say but a part of me doesn't want to see a storm that strong lol. You start introducing some weird, finite and mesoscale processes which can make for forecasting hell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted Monday at 04:40 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:40 PM GEFS looking better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted Monday at 04:40 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:40 PM Meanwhile, nice steady snow here. Wintery appeal! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted Monday at 04:41 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:41 PM 3 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Yes, you mean the piece that comes over the top and gives it the cold beef injection from Manitoba? Yeah, This one. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted Monday at 04:41 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:41 PM 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: Weird to say but a part of me doesn't want to see a storm that strong lol. You start introducing some weird, finite and mesoscale processes which can make for forecasting hell. Nothing ventured, nothing gained. Let's go for it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Monday at 04:42 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:42 PM Very good move on the GEFS. 00z 06z 12z 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Monday at 04:42 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:42 PM alright now i'm a little happier, having seen the 12z gefs ... need some eps but at least 'happier ' in fact, the 3 run trend is pretty evident. the sfc pp layout among the member(s) mean is clearly indicating coalescent cyclogen fields, n-s, along the 90 w longitude ... haven't seen the 144+ yet but i'd be surprised if that didn't show improvement. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted Monday at 04:42 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:42 PM Just now, dryslot said: Yeah, This one Is 100-150 miles too much to ask? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted Monday at 04:43 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:43 PM 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: This isn't Feb 2013. I get a Jan 2011 vibe a bit with that precip distribution and temps...but that was more nrn stream I believe. Jan 2011 also curled up into the gulf of Maine....this one kind of slides due east after reaching a certain latitude. Looks more like 1/27/11 by the time it gets up here...maybe a bit more robust and a little north of that one...but same type of sliding east. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted Monday at 04:43 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:43 PM 10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Agreed. I am internally excited right now but waiting another 24 hours before I get overly excited. Probably better to wait until Wednesday to do that but all the pieces are there...its just about the timing. Yeah externally excitement arrives 00z Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted Monday at 04:43 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:43 PM GEFS looking great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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