Jester January

[CoastalWx]

Maybe NJ points N deformed as low develops and matures.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

I melted hard after the 0z Euro.   You're welcome.

Surprisingly I did not.

[cleetussnow]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think we lose this one...the N stream shitting the bed is BS.

It was soo stable for a few days too

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

78blizzard is waiting for Uncle and Canadian.

Canadian is trying....a bit better than 00z.

[weathafella]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Surprisingly I did not.

No you didn't.  In fact your words of encouragement allowed me to sleep with sugar plums dancing in my head.

[mreaves]

14 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Yeah because I’m psyched to be burning through my wood and oil to stay warm on the cold, brown, barren tundra.

@kdxkenis certainly psyched to be selling you some more wood!

[40/70 Benchmark]

This just proves that this set up is heavily governed by sensitivity to the N stream, which should perform given the trend this season. 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

This would be further NW then depicted for deformation bands

IDK if that would be the case this time around, not with a storm that intense. Would probably start farther northwest but collapse quickly towards the northwest side of the center. Scott did just make a good point this would be more of a CCB than a deform and that also may favor something a bit closer to the northwest center of the H7 low, If I'm thinking correctly. 

[ineedsnow]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Canadian is trying....a bit better than 00z.

Not close enough hopefully we can trend with plenty of time left 

[cleetussnow]

6 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

if this is the set up the trend could be north, yes?  is this a miller a?  or a b with a late insert to tug it up?

@Typhoon Tip says Miller D, maybe like a hybrid,  A's aren't really phasers but I say A.  A storm emerges from the Gulf with plenty of power is my argument.

[H2Otown_WX]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

H7 is in a great spot for deep erly flow. More of a CCB vs deformation.

I like how the block causes it to shoot straight east from the Delmarva

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

No you didn't.  In fact your words of encouragement allowed me to sleep with sugar plums dancing in my head.

The s stream is pretty much figured out...that ameliorated most of my doubt. 

[dryslot]

I would assume the GEFS to be better, But if you looked at what was posted earlier this morning with the ensembles, There's been a steady trend back north and west with a lot of members.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This just proves that this set up is heavily governed by sensitivity to the N stream, which should perform given the trend this season. 

It's not just about the existence of it...timing of all these things is so precarious. What a complicated flow.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dryslot said:

I would assume the GEFS to be better, But if you looked at what was posted earlier this morning with the ensembles, There's been a steady trend back north and west with a lot of members.

Yep...even the EPS last night. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

It's not just about the existence of it...timing of all these things is so precarious. What a complicated flow.

Right..."sensitvity"....

[Henry's Weather]

CMC holds serve, Sampras style

[moneypitmike]

Dr. No is waiting in the wings to administer the jab.

[RDRY]

6 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

CT and RI approved.

[Heisy]

It’s all about the N branch lobe that dives down on the GFS. How often does GFS win model battles with major features? Not often. CMC evolution makes more reasonable sense, it’s strong enough with southern energy to create some coastal precipitation. I hope the GFS is right, but until the euro has anything like it I’d toss personally


.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

I like how the block causes it to shoot straight east from the Delmarva

That will keep the dryslot well south if it happened like that. It's a good evolution for higher end totals since you stay right in the heart of all the inflow and CCB.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

IDK if that would be the case this time around, not with a storm that intense. Would probably start farther northwest but collapse quickly towards the northwest side of the center. Scott did just make a good point this would be more of a CCB than a deform and that also may favor something a bit closer to the northwest center of the H7 low, If I'm thinking correctly. 

The finer details will still need to be worked out if we even have a similar scenario going forward, The main thing now i think is we need to see more consistency from the OP models going forward to assume this is not another head fake.

[Spanks45]

On a side note, not that anyone cares...but it is snowing nicely down here atm. Good sign for this weekend?!?!

[mahk_webstah]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Surprisingly I did not.

you've been expressing confidence this would come back, and your rationale has to do with the NS.  I'm intrigued when mets have gut feelings about situations that to me almost look like lost causes.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

I like how the block causes it to shoot straight east from the Delmarva

Yea latitude gain is capped. The bigger concern is a OTS/weak impact. 

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, dryslot said:

The finer details will still need to be worked out if we even have a similar scenario going forward, The main thing now i think is we need to see more consistency from the OP models going forward to assume this is not another head fake.

Agree, though I still look at ops as another ensemble member at this point. 

[DavisStraight]

Some good cold coming in after the storm, deep winter incoming.

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

06z Skynet and NAM are going the wrong way.

 

Edit...12z NAM.

NAM, at this timeframe...

[Snowcrazed71]

I can only imagine what the accumulation map shows for the GFS model.  Damn

[mahk_webstah]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I would assume the GEFS to be better, But if you looked at what was posted earlier this morning with the ensembles, There's been a steady trend back north and west with a lot of members.

well in the last half hour a lot of members trended north