Jester January

[mahk_webstah]

Just now, dendrite said:

Still 11.0°

Congrats everyone 

 

only the 2nd time we haven't taken the babies for their morning walk in the woods.  (in backpacks).  wind chill is really wicked cold this morning.  Feels like the coldest day of the winter.

[mahk_webstah]

31 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

My daughter just NW of Baltimore said they have 3.5-4.  She’s disappointed.

you raised her well

[cleetussnow]

19 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

I would feel better burning it with snow on the ground...probably close to using 2 cords so far along with a quarter tank of oil....definitely ahead of my burning schedule

I’m already through 2 tons of wood pellets.  I’m not going to make it with 5 unless we blowtorch a couple of weeks which can happen.  I used a touch of oil but thats fine since oil isn’t super expensive.  Pellets rather expensive covid compared to so I’m not saving all that much anymore.  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

With these type of setups though, its almost irrelevant whether models show a storm or not. Slight tweaks in how the models evolve and interact with the H5 energy can have large impacts on how the sfc evolves. At some point you do want to see models become consistent with showing a storm and favorable track but I don't think that is very important right now...but that time is coming.  

I get that but AI has been showing a storm but ots and doing it every single run. I give that credit. 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

only the 2nd time we haven't taken the babies for their morning walk in the woods.  (in backpacks).  wind chill is really wicked cold this morning.  Feels like the coldest day of the winter.

I had a chicken decide to have the worst molt ever a few days ago. Had to bring her in yesterday because she’s almost completely featherless. 

[Henry's Weather]

4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

grace is good from most any source.

but I was responding to a storm Henry said was modelled to "grace the coast."  I thought it was a fitting mispelling.

No Z intended here!

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

I had a chicken decide to have the worst molt ever a few days ago. Had to bring her in yesterday because she’s almost completely featherless. 

She wants to be inside with you and your wife..

[mahk_webstah]

Just now, Henry's Weather said:

No Z intended here!

you sir, are a wordsmith.

[tamarack]

44 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

I'd take a 2-4" clipper at this point just to whiten it up around here. Driving down our gravel road this morning with dust flying everywhere. reminds me of dry summer. 17.1f

I'd take dust for our gravel road.  Something about the wx sequence caused the plow to "chatter" when pushing off the 1" slop on New Year's Day, and now we have a washboard surface that tries to shake the fillings from our teeth - 1st time that's occurred since moving here in 1998.

The pattern may be far different than 15 years ago, but that LP stuck so long in the Maritimes brings back bad memories.  So does the relatively long stretch of nothing; in 2010 we had a 25-day run with nothing but a few traces after the Jan 28 WINDEX, a streak ended by 3.8" precip that included 10 inches of "snow".

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I get that but AI has been showing a storm but ots and doing it every single run. I give that credit. 

If it nails it that will be pretty impressive, but we're going to want to see AI become extremely consistent with nailing storms, otherwise all it is going to do is just add to the uncertainty when there is large model spread. But it also has to go beyond just nailing storms, it needs to be consistent with the evolution of all these features and how the features are interacting. For example, lets say it is OTS because of a lack of phasing and the storm does end up going OTS...well in a sense it was correct with the OTS, however, if there was phasing, just a bit too late which still resulted in an OTS track...well then it was not technically correct. While it had the correct solution, the reasoning was incorrect. 

[tunafish]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I had a chicken decide to have the worst molt ever a few days ago. Had to bring her in yesterday because she’s almost completely featherless. 

Wow, I just assumed they all molted in late Fall.  Been giving mine warm oatmeal sprinkled with cracked corn before they go up at night when it's down in the single digits.  Spoiled ladies.

 

19/5°F

[Spanks45]

Definitely some light snow falling now, looks hazy at least....26/17 atm

[ice1972]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I get that but AI has been showing a storm but ots and doing it every single run. I give that credit. 

lol AI also consistently draws people with 3 eyes and 12 fingers......but I hear ya

[tamarack]

At least we have some sun, though clouds are appearing to the west - more sun today than the previous 9 days' total.  No wind at the moment but the near-constant breezes in recent days have brought daily highs occurring in late evening, with dawn temps running a few degrees less cold.  Odd diurnal pattern.

[Lava Rock]

9 minutes ago, tamarack said:

I'd take dust for our gravel road.  Something about the wx sequence caused the plow to "chatter" when pushing off the 1" slop on New Year's Day, and now we have a washboard surface that tries to shake the fillings from our teeth - 1st time that's occurred since moving here in 1998.

The pattern may be far different than 15 years ago, but that LP stuck so long in the Maritimes brings back bad memories.  So does the relatively long stretch of nothing; in 2010 we had a 25-day run with nothing but a few traces after the Jan 28 WINDEX, a streak ended by 3.8" precip that included 10 inches of "snow".

we had new gravel put down middle of Nov. Plow guy tried to be careful, but most of the new gravel is now along the side of the road. will fix in Spring.

[cleetussnow]

9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

If it nails it that will be pretty impressive, but we're going to want to see AI become extremely consistent with nailing storms, otherwise all it is going to do is just add to the uncertainty when there is large model spread. But it also has to go beyond just nailing storms, it needs to be consistent with the evolution of all these features and how the features are interacting. For example, lets say it is OTS because of a lack of phasing and the storm does end up going OTS...well in a sense it was correct with the OTS, however, if there was phasing, just a bit too late which still resulted in an OTS track...well then it was not technically correct. While it had the correct solution, the reasoning was incorrect. 

I wonder how model statistics handle false positives. Like you said - right for the wrong reasons. Its a pestilence in finance. 

[dendrite]

13 minutes ago, tunafish said:

Wow, I just assumed they all molted in late Fall.  Been giving mine warm oatmeal sprinkled with cracked corn before they go up at night when it's down in the single digits.  Spoiled ladies.

 

19/5°F

She’s 1 of the 8 from the 2023 flock so this is her first real molt. Usually it’s mid to late fall, but she’s definitely off cycle. I still have another one of those 8 laying. Hopefully she holds off on her molt. 

But this girl is a mess. It’s worse than it looks here. All she has are neck and wing feathers. 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, cleetussnow said:

I wonder how model statistics handle false positives. Like you said - right for the wrong reasons. Its a pestilence in finance. 

I wonder that too. I would love to explore model verification scores more and understand the process. I feel like it has to be exceedingly difficult to truly assess model performance and equate that to a particular score because of how complex this is. When you see the graphs comparing model performance at like H5...what is it that explicitly measuring? Is it averaging like observed H5 globally compared to model forecast globally at a particular time? But say one model is handling H5 great overall, but it is weaker in a particular part of the world versus another area where a model with a lower score did better in the area the model with the higher score did...? 

[tunafish]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

She’s 1 of the 8 from the 2023 flock so this is her first real molt. Usually it’s mid to late fall, but she’s definitely off cycle. I still have another one of those 8 laying. Hopefully she holds off on her molt. 

But this girl is a mess. It’s worse than it looks here. All she has are neck and wing feathers. 

I can imagine...it's that "naked rat haggard" look.

We've also increased protein when their molting though not sure how much it helps.  Hopefully the others let her stay in the middle on the roost.

[ineedsnow]

GFS should be a little better

[dryslot]

This 12z GFS run should be a bit better then 06z.

[cleetussnow]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I wonder that too. I would love to explore model verification scores more and understand the process. I feel like it has to be exceedingly difficult to truly assess model performance and equate that to a particular score because of how complex this is. When you see the graphs comparing model performance at like H5...what is it that explicitly measuring? Is it averaging like observed H5 globally compared to model forecast globally at a particular time? But say one model is handling H5 great overall, but it is weaker in a particular part of the world versus another area where a model with a lower score did better in the area the model with the higher score did...? 

Honestly there are too many variables for my pea brain to digest. Someone might have knowledge here and I'm sure @Typhoon Tip has given this thought.

[brooklynwx99]

GFS is phasing

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

GFS should be a little better

It needs a lot more than “a little”

[dryslot]

A lot less positive with the trough and further NW.

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

It needs a lot more than “a little”

It's going to be more than a little

[cleetussnow]

3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

It needs a lot more than “a little”

just need to catch the phase. Not so easy but what we want to see rn

[dryslot]

Yeah, This is a bigger change then just a little, This one is coming up the coast this run.

[ineedsnow]

She's coming again

[ineedsnow]

This might be real good