Patrick-02540 Posted Monday at 02:32 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:32 PM 9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: And these are the things that can’t be seen at 7+ day leads, that can change things in either direction unfortunately/or fortunately depending on one’s perspective. I don't disagree, but the component energies are materially interacting in basically 3 days. The evolution of the final storm may change, but that may be a change only for the mid-Atlantic region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted Monday at 02:34 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:34 PM 16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: absolutely perfect and concise interpretation if/when based upon the trends to date wrt incorporating available indicators - i've noticed that the teleconnector ( pure numerology ) have charlie browned this period of time, 9/10/11th ... beginning about 48 hours ago. i posted then that i did not like the torpid commitment by the ens means - but am willing to admit i was a bit star-struck by the 00z euro and 06z gfs operational Rembrandter solutions... however, the pna was, up until about 2.5 days ago, progged to rise through the 12thl this thing we've been monitoring was at the time occurring as the telecon was approaching an apex out there... done deal. since then, the index has changed... it's now -d(pna) starting late on the 8th and falling pretty sharply through the 10th/ ...11th+ that's going the wrong direction. it doesn't have to mean coffin nails to this thing being meaningful for us...but, objectively, these recent model runs may just as well be the underlying physics of an abandoning pna ... That’s most likely why the trough is so positively tilted now on modeling. +PNA going away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted Monday at 02:37 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:37 PM 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: PNA goes negative so yeah expect some ridging perhaps. But it looks like a potential SWFE look. Good fuk these coastals unless there Miller B's Less distance to have to traverse, We will clean up on the SWFE's similar to how it went in 2007. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted Monday at 02:40 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:40 PM 06z Skynet and NAM are going the wrong way. Edit...12z NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted Monday at 02:40 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:40 PM Just now, Go Kart Mozart said: 06z Skynet and NAM are going the wrong way. Shit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted Monday at 02:42 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:42 PM Just now, Kitz Craver said: Shit I am disappointed in Skynet in terms of the flip flops...it's alleged strength is consistency beyond day four. It's acting like an ordinary model with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted Monday at 02:42 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:42 PM 43 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Time to fire up a February 2026 thread? FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted Monday at 02:43 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:43 PM If it’s not going to snow it would be nice to get some sunny days. The CRV has been mostly overcast the past week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted Monday at 02:44 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:44 PM 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: how it went in 2007. Ooooh, now I'm getting tingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted Monday at 02:46 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:46 PM 7 minutes ago, dryslot said: Good fuk these coastals unless there Miller B's Less distance to have to traverse, We will clean up on the SWFE's similar to how it went in 2007. I'd take a 2-4" clipper at this point just to whiten it up around here. Driving down our gravel road this morning with dust flying everywhere. reminds me of dry summer. 17.1f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted Monday at 02:47 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:47 PM 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: If it’s not going to snow it would be nice to get some sunny days. The CRV has been mostly overcast the past week. Yup. Grey, low cloud deck, cold, windy and these conditions have sustained for quite some time now. Everything we need, except for snow. Useless. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted Monday at 02:48 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:48 PM We're building a decent ice pack and getting the ground frozen like we always hope for before we get the snow.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted Monday at 02:49 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:49 PM Just now, dryslot said: We're building a decent ice pack and getting the ground frozen like we always hope for before we get the snow.............. Rusty, dull, dagger twist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted Monday at 02:51 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:51 PM 8 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: If it’s not going to snow it would be nice to get some sunny days. The CRV has been mostly overcast the past week. This^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted Monday at 02:52 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:52 PM 4 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said: Yup. Grey, low cloud deck, cold, windy and these conditions have sustained for quite some time now. Everything we need, except for snow. Useless. Not completely useless. Good days for burning lots and lots of firewood. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted Monday at 02:56 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:56 PM On a ship of rats, they're always the ones who jump first. I don't know who's the Capt. but this cruise is going nowhere fast. NEXT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted Monday at 02:57 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:57 PM 3 minutes ago, kdxken said: Not completely useless. Good days for burning lots and lots of firewood. Plowed through two cords so far. At this rate, it'll be a 5 cord season. Of course, I keep the house at 75 and walk around in tees and shorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted Monday at 02:59 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:59 PM My daughter just NW of Baltimore said they have 3.5-4. She’s disappointed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted Monday at 03:01 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:01 PM I would strongly advise giving the NAM little attention beyond 48 hours for this system with the only attention just comparing evolution of H5 through a 48-hour window....that is all. Beyond that, the NAM will be useless garbage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted Monday at 03:01 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:01 PM 16 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: I am disappointed in Skynet in terms of the flip flops...it's alleged strength is consistency beyond day four. It's acting like an ordinary model with this one. IDK. It’s been consistently showing the system with minimal or no impact to the region. Not one run did it show a hecs like multiple gfs runs or a euro run or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted Monday at 03:08 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:08 PM 13 minutes ago, kdxken said: Not completely useless. Good days for burning lots and lots of firewood. I would feel better burning it with snow on the ground...probably close to using 2 cords so far along with a quarter tank of oil....definitely ahead of my burning schedule Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted Monday at 03:13 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:13 PM 11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: IDK. It’s been consistently showing the system with minimal or no impact to the region. Not one run did it show a hecs like multiple gfs runs or a euro run or two. Good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted Monday at 03:19 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:19 PM People are melting already? Give this a couple days to sort itself out. I mean, we are discussing a threat about 6 days from gracing the eastern seaboard. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted Monday at 03:21 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:21 PM It's actually snowing outside right now....at least the ground is cold enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted Monday at 03:22 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:22 PM 2 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: People are melting already? Give this a couple days to sort itself out. I mean, we are discussing a threat about 6 days from gracing the eastern seaboard. We could use some grace 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted Monday at 03:25 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:25 PM 3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: We could use some grace From the Pope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted Monday at 03:27 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:27 PM 22 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: IDK. It’s been consistently showing the system with minimal or no impact to the region. Not one run did it show a hecs like multiple gfs runs or a euro run or two. With these type of setups though, its almost irrelevant whether models show a storm or not. Slight tweaks in how the models evolve and interact with the H5 energy can have large impacts on how the sfc evolves. At some point you do want to see models become consistent with showing a storm and favorable track but I don't think that is very important right now...but that time is coming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted Monday at 03:28 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:28 PM 16 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: My daughter just NW of Baltimore said they have 3.5-4. She’s disappointed. Flurries here. At least got something from the MA storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted Monday at 03:29 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:29 PM Still 11.0° Congrats everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted Monday at 03:29 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:29 PM 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: From the Pope? grace is good from most any source. but I was responding to a storm Henry said was modelled to "grace the coast." I thought it was a fitting mispelling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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