Jester January

[Damage In Tolland]

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You also have a crap ridge out west with another s/w crashing into the PAC NW. Too much shit going on. Going to need to see big changes. 

Your gut says this coming though 

[WinterWolf]

This isn’t just two streams phasing anymore…unfortunately it’s become much more complicated than that now. 

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Your gut says this coming though 

I think that has changed now…lots of different things have happened, entered the picture since yesterday.  This isn’t the same set up anymore.  

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Your gut says this coming though 

I have no gut anymore. It’s punched out. Good time for a break this week.

[Kitz Craver]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Kind of acts to keep the ridge sort of folding over.  I agree with Dendrite that the initial s/w doesn’t allow the flow to buckle much.  We’ll see what 12z does,  but we need some large changes in the flow. 

At this point is it even possible to see large wholesale changes in the flow?

[mahk_webstah]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I have no gut anymore. It’s punched out. Good time for a break this week.

"Letting go gives us freedom, and freedom is the only condition for happiness." - Thich Nhat Hanh

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Kitz Craver said:

At this point is it even possible to see large wholesale changes in the flow?

I think we just did…in the form of these different sw’s that have changed this picture now…and probably not for the better.  Definitely has made things more complicated.  

[Spanks45]

I would just like to see some sun, longer than an hour after sunrise.....reminds me of April, just colder.

[Snowcrazed71]

It's really hard to keep the positive vibes when it comes to getting any kind of snow around these parts. The downer indeed, when you see the map showing something really promising to then just tear it apart. I know there's still more winter left and things can change, but, I think a break is in order

[Damage In Tolland]

Based on both sets of ensembles and the GGEM coming so far NW.. I’m not giving up 

[Kitz Craver]

Just peaked at the 6z EURO it’s a flat positively tilted trough the entire run. Just OP but, not what you want to see.

[Kitz Craver]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Based on both sets of ensembles and the GGEM coming so far NW.. I’m not giving up 

Yeah curious what 12z ens has to say.

[Spanks45]

12 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

It's really hard to keep the positive vibes when it comes to getting any kind of snow around these parts. The downer indeed, when you see the map showing something really promising to then just tear it apart. I know there's still more winter left and things can change, but, I think a break is in order

If it wasn't so 'cold' it wouldn't be so tough...but it has felt like snow for weeks it seems with very little to show for it. All the while, the subconscious part is telling you that the warmup switch is coming so we better get some snow soon or it will be too late. 

[SnoSki14]

Just now, Spanks45 said:

If it wasn't so 'cold' it wouldn't be so tough...but it has felt like snow for weeks it seems with very little to show for it. All the while, the subconscious part is telling you that the warmup switch is coming so we better get some snow soon or it will be too late. 

Ensembles are showing some some ridging in the east by Jan 18-20 however it could be transient and they could be jumping the gun somewhat. 

[CoastalWx]

16 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Ensembles are showing some some ridging in the east by Jan 18-20 however it could be transient and they could be jumping the gun somewhat. 

PNA goes negative so yeah expect some ridging perhaps. But it looks like a potential SWFE look.

[Allsnow]

25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

PNA goes negative so yeah expect some ridging perhaps. But it looks like a potential SWFE look.

Yeah, Canada looks to be cooling down with the -epo 

[Patrick-02540]

I knew it when I saw only 1 new page since 12am.  

[Patrick-02540]

Albany's take:

 

Attention then turns to next weekend when another storm system, at
this point, looks to pass us by to the south. Deterministic
solutions, though slightly varied in the evolution of the system,
generally favor the disconnect of the northern and southern streams.
The lack of phasing of two shortwaves embedded within these flow
regimes would lead to a faster, more east-northeasterly track of a
developing surface low in the deep south which looks to become a
coastal low off the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic Coast by Saturday
afternoon. If this is to be realized, much of our region would
remain dry through the weekend, with only light snow showers
possible in the lower Mid-Hudson Valley and southwest New England.
However, if there were to be phasing of the two aforementioned
shortwaves, the track of the coastal low would be slower and shifted
farther west, giving us a potentially significant snowfall. This
isn`t out of the question being that there is still a fair amount of
lead time ahead of the system, but based on latest ensembles, the
probability for even sub-Advisory snowfall is very low.

[Torch Tiger]

Time to fire up a February thread?  

[Spanks45]

52 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

PNA goes negative so yeah expect some ridging perhaps. But it looks like a potential SWFE look.

Would definitely take a good 3-6 inch that switches over before ending....mix up this pattern already

[Typhoon Tip]

23 minutes ago, Patrick-02540 said:

Albany's take:

 

Attention then turns to next weekend when another storm system, at
this point, looks to pass us by to the south. Deterministic
solutions, though slightly varied in the evolution of the system,
generally favor the disconnect of the northern and southern streams.
The lack of phasing of two shortwaves embedded within these flow
regimes would lead to a faster, more east-northeasterly track of a
developing surface low in the deep south which looks to become a
coastal low off the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic Coast by Saturday
afternoon. If this is to be realized, much of our region would
remain dry through the weekend, with only light snow showers
possible in the lower Mid-Hudson Valley and southwest New England.
However, if there were to be phasing of the two aforementioned
shortwaves, the track of the coastal low would be slower and shifted
farther west, giving us a potentially significant snowfall. This
isn`t out of the question being that there is still a fair amount of
lead time ahead of the system, but based on latest ensembles, the
probability for even sub-Advisory snowfall is very low.

absolutely perfect and concise interpretation if/when based upon the trends to date wrt incorporating available indicators -

i've noticed that the teleconnector ( pure numerology ) have charlie browned this period of time, 9/10/11th ... beginning about 48 hours ago.  i posted then that i did not like the torpid commitment by the ens means - but am willing to admit i was a bit star-struck by the 00z euro and 06z gfs operational Rembrandter solutions...  however, the pna was, up until about 2.5 days ago, progged to rise through the 12thl  this thing we've been monitoring was at the time occurring as the telecon was approaching an apex out there...  done deal. 

since then, the index has changed... it's now -d(pna) starting late on the 8th and falling pretty sharply through the 10th/ ...11th+     that's going the wrong direction.   

it doesn't have to mean coffin nails to this thing being meaningful for us...but, objectively, these recent model runs may just as well be the underlying physics of an abandoning pna ... 

 

[WinterWolf]

Let’s see what kind of antics 12z throws at us in a little while.  This thing has more plot twists than a mystery novel..

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

PNA goes negative so yeah expect some ridging perhaps. But it looks like a potential SWFE look.

That is my expectation for Feb.

[Prismshine Productions]

Let’s see what kind of antics 12z throws at us in a little while.  This thing has more plot twists than a mystery novel..

M. Night Shamalan, weather edition

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[Prismshine Productions]

That is my expectation for Feb.

Feb being a full month -PNA?

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[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

absolutely perfect and concise interpretation if/when based upon the trends to date wrt incorporating available indicators -

i've noticed that the teleconnector ( pure numerology ) have charlie browned this period of time, 9/10/11th ... beginning about 48 hours ago.  i posted then that i did not like the torpid commitment by the ens means - but am willing to admit i was a bit star-struck by the 00z euro and 06z gfs operational Rembrandter solutions...     the pna was, up until about 2.5 days ago, progged to rise through the 12th, as this thing we've been monitoring was as the telecon was approaching an apex out there...  done deal.  but, since then, the index has changed... it's now -d(pna) starting late on the 8th and falling pretty sharply through the 10th/ ...11th+     that's going the wrong direction.   

it doesn't have to mean coffin nails to this thing's being meaningful for us...but, objectively, these recent model runs may just as well be the underlying physics of an abandoning pna ... 

And these are the things that can’t be seen at 7+ day leads, that can change things in either direction unfortunately/or fortunately depending on one’s perspective.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Feb being a full month -PNA?

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Not what I said...averaged out, yes..with SWFE.

[Typhoon Tip]

btw, pna may be a better fit for 3 or so days around or preceding the 20ths - but the telecon being sketchy as of late, ... i remember discussing wtih someone in this media, years ago, that the telecons themselves have become increasingly less stable - they're really the bedrock upon which the buildings sway.  whenever the sways try to sway one's thinking one way or the other ... just refer back to the teleco and uuuusually, that could protect one from the 'miss'guidance quotient.  but that get's kind of hard to do when telecons are having earth quakes.

[DJln491]

10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Let’s see what kind of antics 12z throws at us in a little while.  This thing has more plot twists than a mystery novel..

the OP will be zonked but ensembles will be worse, I think that's what is up next in the rotation

[mahk_webstah]

if the PNA drops but the NAO is still weakly neg, that is good right?  and strong NaOs last 5 weeks usually I think.