78Blizzard Posted yesterday at 06:32 AM Share Posted yesterday at 06:32 AM It's amazing how that N stream changed so much in one run. It virtually almost disappeared from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted yesterday at 06:33 AM Share Posted yesterday at 06:33 AM 14 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: FWIW: https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F144&rundt=2025010600&map=tbl You'll notice some ominous analogs in the top 5 including 2/10/10 and 1/20/00 I couldn't recall the storm in February of 2014 listed there but apparently the Cape got crushed: https://rightweather.com/2014/02/southern-new-england-snow-totals-february-15-2014/ Using purely analogs of the GFS evolution it would appear the ceiling of potential is 1/27/11. Yep and a day before we got a significant snowstorm and a few days after as well https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/past-storms-13-14 I still think 13-14 was probably the most well rounded perfect winters we've ever seen. It wasn't the biggest but it was cold and had multiple snowstorms in D-J-F 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted yesterday at 06:37 AM Share Posted yesterday at 06:37 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted yesterday at 06:38 AM Share Posted yesterday at 06:38 AM 5 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: It's amazing how that N stream changed so much in one run. It virtually almost disappeared from 12z. I call BS. This will be back by 12z Wed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted yesterday at 06:41 AM Share Posted yesterday at 06:41 AM EPS is best run since 00z last night. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted yesterday at 06:44 AM Share Posted yesterday at 06:44 AM Hang with 'em...its coming. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted yesterday at 06:51 AM Share Posted yesterday at 06:51 AM 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: EPS is best run since 00z last night. Def an improvement over 12Z. Well wait and see, i think well know by Tuesday or Wed at the latest. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted yesterday at 07:19 AM Share Posted yesterday at 07:19 AM 33 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Hang with 'em...its coming. If not, hoping the whole thing is squashed so no one sees anything, right? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted yesterday at 10:19 AM Share Posted yesterday at 10:19 AM 6z GFS whiff. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted yesterday at 10:20 AM Share Posted yesterday at 10:20 AM If we don't see the system across models on the 12z fun today, I'll be REALLY doubtful anything will happen. If nothing with tonight's 00z run, I'm putting a nail in it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted yesterday at 10:21 AM Share Posted yesterday at 10:21 AM Yeah, way OTS. wow so much for zonked off-hour libations 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted yesterday at 10:52 AM Share Posted yesterday at 10:52 AM 31 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Yeah, way OTS. wow so much for zonked off-hour libations 6z GEFS west of 0z though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted yesterday at 10:54 AM Share Posted yesterday at 10:54 AM 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: 6z GEFS west of 0z though Yeah GEFS is much improved overall from 00z 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted yesterday at 10:54 AM Share Posted yesterday at 10:54 AM 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 6z GEFS west of 0z though she gone for us 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted yesterday at 10:58 AM Share Posted yesterday at 10:58 AM 3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Yeah GEFS is much improved overall from 00z Can you post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted yesterday at 10:59 AM Share Posted yesterday at 10:59 AM 4 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: she gone for us naw she coming back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted yesterday at 11:02 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:02 AM 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: naw she coming back model-wise, sure. I bet they'll flip flop more 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted yesterday at 11:03 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:03 AM 4 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said: Can you post? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted yesterday at 11:05 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:05 AM 1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said: No denying, that’s quite an improvement 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted yesterday at 11:07 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:07 AM Not seeing much opportunity for meaningful precipitation during this portion of the forecast. The general W to NW flow should drive any potential ocean-effect mainly offshore over the coastal waters. The next chance for precipitation may come late this weekend. There remains a large amount of uncertainty concerning the details. There are a lot of moving parts, that must come together in just the right way, to produce a significant impact on southern New England. Thusfar, the guidance has depicted many possible solutions, in some cases from one run the next. This is a sign it is way too early to get focused on a singular answer. We still need to remain alert to the possibilities for now. It will likely be several days before these details come into better focus. For now, stayed close to the NationalBlend solution, as that is ensemble-based. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted yesterday at 11:35 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:35 AM 6z Euro is still very flat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted yesterday at 11:38 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:38 AM Still a long ways out. I'm not starting to buy anything either way until Wednesday. Gut says we get something... but how scientific is that 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted yesterday at 11:46 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:46 AM We need to see something now. the recent runs that have shown events either closing off too far south or weak waves heading harmlessly off the mid-atlantic. It appears those are oal posts for the last 24 hours. Need to see something better than that soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted yesterday at 11:51 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:51 AM 6z gfs phases the northern stream in really early into w tx. That lead s/w ejecting out of baja still looks like a problem to me wave spacing wise. The downstream ridging just can’t amplify enough to get the bigger dog up here. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted yesterday at 11:59 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:59 AM 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: 6z gfs phases the northern stream in really early into w tx. That lead s/w ejecting out of baja still looks like a problem to me wave spacing wise. The downstream ridging just can’t amplify enough to get the bigger dog up here. You also have a crap ridge out west with another s/w crashing into the PAC NW. Too much shit going on. Going to need to see big changes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted yesterday at 12:08 PM Share Posted yesterday at 12:08 PM 15 minutes ago, dendrite said: 6z gfs phases the northern stream in really early into w tx. That lead s/w ejecting out of baja still looks like a problem to me wave spacing wise. The downstream ridging just can’t amplify enough to get the bigger dog up here. Appropriate i guess that this image on the bottom right looks like a sad man sleeping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted yesterday at 12:10 PM Share Posted yesterday at 12:10 PM Looks like that new NW pacific shortwave is gonna act as a kicker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted yesterday at 12:16 PM Share Posted yesterday at 12:16 PM Weird how ugly the OP runs are but the ensembles are def still trying. Can’t have any regression at 12z though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted yesterday at 12:16 PM Share Posted yesterday at 12:16 PM I’d like to kick this -nao to the moon. Hopefully breaks down soon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted yesterday at 12:17 PM Share Posted yesterday at 12:17 PM 5 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said: Looks like that new NW pacific shortwave is gonna act as a kicker Kind of acts to keep the ridge sort of folding over. I agree with Dendrite that the initial s/w doesn’t allow the flow to buckle much. We’ll see what 12z does, but we need some large changes in the flow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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