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Jester January


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10 hours ago, George001 said:

After looking at some long range indicators more closely, I am officially putting all winter forecasts calling for a mild and below normal snow winter on BUST watch. I’m not saying this to throw shade, I went warm and below normal snow myself. I’m doing this because I’m already seeing signs that the key assumptions I made when looking at analogs are going to be wrong. The PDO is barely negative now, my forecast called for a moderate to strong -PDO. December has been a cold month, even with the late month relaxation period it will finish slightly BN temp wise. I thought December would be warm. 

While I did go above normal temps and below normal snowfall, I had a whole section of my outlook allocated to the rationale for why the long term Pacific cold phase is coming to an end...given my forecasting bias, I felt compelled to assume it wouldn't have a profound impact immediately...we shall see. Looks as though I nailed the late blooming La Nina that many had given up on.

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22 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

With all the smart people in the NE I am surprises no bitches more about this…..Do the benefits of modern road treatments outweigh the damage done to vehicles, roads and bridges??? I mean I feel there are more cars off the road with salt and liquid treatments vs just sand and rear wheel drive cars of the 70’s and 80’s

Plenty of people complain. They’ve gone to different treatment options in some places and have stopped using salt altogether in some sensitive areas. There are also cost considerations, some alternatives are more expensive than salt and not always as effective. 

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27 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

With all the smart people in the NE I am surprises no bitches more about this…..Do the benefits of modern road treatments outweigh the damage done to vehicles, roads and bridges??? I mean I feel there are more cars off the road with salt and liquid treatments vs just sand and rear wheel drive cars of the 70’s and 80’s

I soak the underneath of my truck with fluid film.  I’ve seen some nice low miles truck whipped on account of the salt.  Up north in some areas they use a salt/beat juice spray which is supposedly better.

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45 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

I can understand if the definition is it has to snow between Christmas Eve and Christmas day but to be the first snow really narrows it down to an almost impossible level.

Agreed, The first snow is ridiculous.  And if the ground is white…it’s a white Xmas.  As far as the NWS goes with the one inch idea, I think that’s fair for weather purposes.  But if your ground is white at your house, you got a white Xmas imo. 

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25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1995 for me...had about 1'.

 

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Same amount as well.

 

Think we had about 15-17” or so in 1995 in ORH. But we had some extra snow OTG from 12/9 which made it a glacier base whereas closer to the coast didn’t do as well in that one. 
 

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3 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Merry Christmas...and the first white one in many years down here!

Although my wife is trying to tell me that in order to call it  a white Christmas, it has to be the first snow of the season.  Has anyone else heard that?

she dipping into the egg nog first thing? Bloody marys? Mimosas?

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2 hours ago, Modfan2 said:

With all the smart people in the NE I am surprises no bitches more about this…..Do the benefits of modern road treatments outweigh the damage done to vehicles, roads and bridges??? I mean I feel there are more cars off the road with salt and liquid treatments vs just sand and rear wheel drive cars of the 70’s and 80’s

A lot of it is the CYA thinking of local dpw and highway departments.  It's better to apply too much than too little, as the thought goes. 

Up until the 70s and early 80s salt and sand were not used nearly as much as they are now. Budgets have gone up and people are lot more litigation minded...

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40 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ice and snow trend for New Year storm 

What makes you think the storm is trending more to ice or snow system. The forecast still show mid to upper 40s. But then again no one's been posting anything current over the last 2 days because of the holiday.

Also, there's been no maps posted for next week about the upcoming storm. So I was just curious where where You saw this? I'll be

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What makes you think the storm is trending more to ice or snow system. The forecast still show mid to upper 40s. But then again no one's been posting anything current over the last 2 days because of the holiday.
Also, there's been no maps posted for next week about the upcoming storm. So I was just curious where where You saw this? I'll be
Don't expect much even tomorrow (Boxing Day) because of people traveling back home/are still with families...


Meanwhile, GFS has been consistently showing an ice storm while the colder Euro has a CNE snowstorm


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Merry Christmas y'all! Appreciate the insight and banter here. Been checking in for 4 years....
Hoping mid January verifies and we get buried!6ddfc2e6655b77daec9e4856ab02600f.jpg

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

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