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Today's cold snowless winter day ≈ Pats win #4... useless and unwanted by winter/Pats fans.

Just looked GFS 18z/6z vs. 12z H5 so hugely different... especially northern stream energy dives down better on 18z/6z instead of getting lost over Manitoba. Unfortunately I don't think we'll be confident with that variable until closer, but I'm not so discouraged by the 12z suite. When the outcome is so sensitive to just the slightest stream interaction, I actually lean against OTS with zero impacts as depicted at 12z.

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36 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I almost wonder if one of our Main players was in a very data sparse region for 12z and models initialized it wrong.. or this is just the 18z GFS being the 18z GFS..  curious what the Euro shows in a hour or so  

Wondering the same thing, when big differences involve the strength of the northern shortwave you have to question that.  This may waffle back and forth until the thing is better sampled.  Still fun to track, better than 2 weeks of nada...

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11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Not a great run verbatim for up here, but there’s not a lot of suppression with this look. 
image.png

Yeah….The two streams cooperating is really all we want to see at this range. We can worry about LBSW later on. I think ideally we’ll want to see some late northern stream insert (no shortage of little vorts up there) to crank it for New England. 

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