Jester January

[DJln491]

See you Tuesday when it reappears 

[Heisy]

You could kind of see that disconnect as early as 90h imo
00z

 
12z

 
But it’s really evident 18 hours later
00z

 
12z

 
My concern is that this disconnect shows up sooner rather than later so we need more immediate changes, but I agree with you that setting aside the surface depiction and just looking at 500, there’s not as much reason to be discouraged as you’d think. 

Good post, that was my point earlier this morning that the phase we need is almost at day 4 so I was hoping by 18z today we started seeing some hits across guidance. Then the 6z euro happened lol. Going to be tough but I guess you never know

I know you guys hurting, but down here in Philly I haven’t seen a 6” snowstorm in like 4 years

[weathafella]

MCI,CVG,DCA/BWI and in between getting 6-12+.  Been quite awhile since the south of 40 crew had such a widespread heavy snow event.  MCI currently 16/13 with heavy snow.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

MCI,CVG,DCA/BWI and in between getting 6-12+.  Been quite awhile since the south of 40 crew had such a widespread heavy snow event.  MCI currently 16/13 with heavy snow.

I feel warm and fuzzy for them.

[78Blizzard]

If we see uncle starting to get a clue, and/or the Canadian, then I'll believe we have a real shot.  Unless or until that happens, these on again off again runs of the GFS and Euro are meaningless.  But that had better happen very soon.

[weathafella]

9 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

If we see uncle starting to get a clue, and/or the Canadian, then I'll believe we have a real shot.  Unless or until that happens, these on again off again runs of the GFS and Euro are meaningless.  But that had better happen very soon.

If the gfs and euro consistently show a hit sustained run to run I could care less about cmc or uncle which have been pretty bad for quite awhile now.

[dryslot]

Icon, CMC and Uncle, Don't hold much weight.

[weatherwiz]

48 minutes ago, weathafella said:

MCI,CVG,DCA/BWI and in between getting 6-12+.  Been quite awhile since the south of 40 crew had such a widespread heavy snow event.  MCI currently 16/13 with heavy snow.

MCI also closed

[weatherwiz]

19 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Icon, CMC and Uncle, Don't hold much weight.

Those are a waste, not sure why people waste time looking at those. Big deal they get something right every 5 years. Let's say one of these score a scoop over other guidance,

1) How the hell are you going to know that in advance?

2) Who would even take them seriously if they're deviating from other guidance? 

[WinterWolf]

49 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

If we see uncle starting to get a clue, and/or the Canadian, then I'll believe we have a real shot.  Unless or until that happens, these on again off again runs of the GFS and Euro are meaningless.  But that had better happen very soon.

Really?  This sounds silly.  How long have you been around here?  Those two models couldn’t find their ass if it was sitting on their face. 

[ORH_wxman]

46 minutes ago, weathafella said:

If the gfs and euro consistently show a hit sustained run to run I could care less about cmc or uncle which have been pretty bad for quite awhile now.

Agreed. Though any other guidance showing it does help confidence. 
 

But my view is either this is going to come back quickly or it’s gone. I’d expect to see clear improvements by 12z tomorrow if a decent hit is going to happen. 

[78Blizzard]

41 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Icon, CMC and Uncle, Don't hold much weight.

I'll remind you of this post if this ends up a complete miss, since CMC and Uncle have called a miss from the beginning.

[78Blizzard]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Agreed. Though any other guidance showing it does help confidence. 
 

But my view is either this is going to come back quickly or it’s gone. I’d expect to see clear improvements by 12z tomorrow if a decent hit is going to happen. 

That was my point exactly.

[moneypitmike]

On the upside, we can continue going for walks with no worry about slipping on ice.  Probably for at least 2 weeks. 

[78Blizzard]

23 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Really?  This sounds silly.  How long have you been around here?  Those two models couldn’t find their ass if it was sitting on their face. 

Longer than you.

[Spanks45]

12 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

I'll remind you of this post if this ends up a complete miss, since CMC and Uncle have called a miss from the beginning.

I feel like this will be one of these instances where the NAM will be close and we would all be wishing for the dgex to make a comeback....not saying it will be right, just that the NAM will some how show some sort of crazy solution to suck us all back in....

[Go Kart Mozart]

But that 288hr set-up looks interesting....

[FXWX]

39 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Those are a waste, not sure why people waste time looking at those. Big deal they get something right every 5 years. Let's say one of these score a scoop over other guidance,

1) How the hell are you going to know that in advance?

2) Who would even take them seriously if they're deviating from other guidance? 

I couldn't care less if they never posted the CMC or UkMet again... Seriously, I've never waited to see them before finalizing a forecast!  Lol

[weathafella]

20 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

I'll remind you of this post if this ends up a complete miss, since CMC and Uncle have called a miss from the beginning.

All that proves is ...nothing.   Solutions beyond d6 are often random luck.  So you can't say ICON/CMC etc had this all along.  I didn't include uncle because how many systems did models converge on only for uncle to send it to Bermuda inside of 72 hours.... 

[WinterWolf]

15 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Longer than you.

Bud, the only point is those models are not what you want to show anything.   If the two big boys converge in on a solution..it won’t matter if, or when they come on board.  

I mean I wouldn’t doubt that if the big boys say no go, those two models will show the opposite when that happens.   

[78Blizzard]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

All that proves is ...nothing.   Solutions beyond d6 are often random luck.  So you can't say ICON/CMC etc had this all along.  I didn't include uncle because how many systems did models converge on only for uncle to send it to Bermuda inside of 72 hours.... 

You know that is not true.  How many solutions over the years have we seen well beyond d6 which have been proven right?  Especially rainers.

[78Blizzard]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Bud, the only point is those models are not what you want to show anything.   If the two big boys converge in on a solution..it won’t matter if, or when they come on board.  

I mean I wouldn’t doubt that if the big boys say no go, those two models will show the opposite when that happens.   

As was said previously, other guidance showing it does help confidence. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

41 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

I'll remind you of this post if this ends up a complete miss, since CMC and Uncle have called a miss from the beginning.

I couldn't care less. They still suck.

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

As was said previously, other guidance showing it does help confidence. 

I do understand that point.  But those two are just sub par.  If the big two come back..and show continuity a couple days from now, those two will eventually come on board toward the end. And if they didn’t, I don’t think it would matter much.  
 

But it’s all good. let’s hope we get a snow event. 

[78Blizzard]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I do understand that point.  But those two are just sub par.  If the big two come back..and show continuity a couple days from now, those two will eventually come on board toward the end. And if they didn’t, I don’t think it would matter much.  
 

But it’s all good. let’s hope we get a snow event. 

Other guidance showing it to increase confidence was my only point.  I'm not singing any praises of the CMC or Uncle.

[weathafella]

18 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

You know that is not true.  How many solutions over the years have we seen well beyond d6 which have been proven right?  Especially rainers.

I think what I said was true key word being often.  I think it’s easy for models st long range without a lot of blocking to sniff a system out.  Details can change radically.  Of course if we’re getting a cutter and we don’t have nao to shunt it east models have less moving parts so verification is frequently better.

It seems that NAO and timing of northern and southern streams is really tenuous with model waffling in the medium range understandable.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I couldn't care less. They still suck.

Posting style Ray..posting style   let’s have some compassion. 

[CoastalWx]

Models blow for next weekend and Patriots blow the #1 pick to amass assets. Good day today.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

52 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

On the upside, we can continue going for walks with no worry about slipping on ice.  Probably for at least 2 weeks. 

If it’s not a 4”+ event I’d rather just stick with bare ground. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Models blow for next weekend and Patriots blow the #1 pick to amass assets. Good day today.

Regression from the 2010’s of big snows and SB wins.