TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted Sunday at 04:54 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:54 PM Just now, Hazey said: Other than two runs of the goofus and a run, maybe two of the euro, has any other lr guidance shown a hit? Seems the odds were really stacked against this threat. I mentioned this last night. I think people are desperate for an event (I get it) and have latched onto the very few OP run solutions that have shown an event. Too many moving parts for my liking. You need to phase in a precise window. I’d put the probability of a big event probably under 10% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Sunday at 04:54 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:54 PM 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not the progress I would like on the GEFS, but really no discouraging move, either. But LC says warm windy rainer for EC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Sunday at 04:55 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:55 PM Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: GEFS not great....but better than 00z...similar to 06z. After the 0z of the GFS run last night…the GEFS was improved from the Op run. That was a decent sign. So if it’s better than that, and more like 6z, that’s not a bad place at this juncture. I mean we are still a ways out(not fantasy land) so this isn’t gonna hold the great look for too long either at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted Sunday at 04:56 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:56 PM Def didn't love the trend on the 06z EPS..do this again at 12z, I'll will probably jump ship. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Sunday at 04:59 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:59 PM 4 minutes ago, Hazey said: Other than two runs of the goofus and a run, maybe two of the euro, has any other lr guidance shown a hit? Seems the odds were really stacked against this threat. Well we had the 12z GFS and Euro yesterday. We had the 18z GFS yesterday. We had the 0z Euro early this morning. We had the 6z GFS this morning..all show big hits. So that’s 5 hits in the last 24 hrs…if we’re counting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Sunday at 05:02 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:02 PM 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Def didn't love the trend on the 06z EPS..do this again at 12z, I'll will probably jump ship. You’re probably gonna jump then…cuz I have a feeling we are in that in between phase now…so it probably won’t look good now for a while. Just gotta hope when things get better sampled later this week, things improve again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted Sunday at 05:04 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:04 PM Just now, WinterWolf said: You’re probably gonna jump then…cuz I have a feeling we are in that in between phase now…so it probably won’t look good now for a while. Just gotta hope when things get better sampled later this week, things improve again. But the phasing is at like day 4...if the Euro suite continues trending to shit today, then that is egregiously bad. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msg112469 Posted Sunday at 05:04 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:04 PM 24 minutes ago, weathafella said: It seems that it is quite common for models to show a big solution and then lose it in the d4-7 range before roaring it back to life. It is quite common, historically. Just not common in the last 10 years or so. Lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Sunday at 05:05 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:05 PM 12 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I mentioned this last night. I think people are desperate for an event (I get it) and have latched onto the very few OP run solutions that have shown an event. Too many moving parts for my liking. You need to phase in a precise window. I’d put the probability of a big event probably under 10% I don’t feel anybody has been posting desperately here at all. Just discussing. A big hit is always the exception, but the potential is there…so we track and discuss. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted Sunday at 05:05 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:05 PM Have the models "in general" ever resolved energy in the SW, in timing, location and strength? Is there still a bias? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Sunday at 05:06 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:06 PM 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: But the phasing is at like day 4...if the Euro suite continues trending to shit today, then that is egregiously bad. Sure..I agree, but it’s hardly over if it is. And even day 4 isn’t a slam duck in something like this imo. It’s gonna waffle for sure..I wasn’t expecting these big solutions to be there for a week either. I was expecting this part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted Sunday at 05:07 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:07 PM I never understood the argument for rain. If anything, this was going wide right and thats like 80% of the op solutions the last week or so. It’s really 2 options. And yes, we haven’t had 4 cycles of any one model showing a hit. All typical model cinema right now. Storms can and do come and go, only to come back. Boxing day did that for example. Not saying thats what we got here, but it happens. If it doesn’t re emerge by Tuesday 12 then we whiffing imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted Sunday at 05:09 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:09 PM 1 minute ago, cleetussnow said: I never understood the argument for rain. If anything, this was going wide right and thats like 80% of the op solutions the last week or so. It’s really 2 options. And yes, we haven’t had 4 cycles of any one model showing a hit. All typical model cinema right now. Storms can and do come and go, only to come back. Boxing day did that for example. Not saying thats what we got here, but it happens. If it doesn’t re emerge by Tuesday 12 then we whiffing imo. Yeah it’s very hard to get rain in this. Esp over the interior. The biggest threat is a missed phase and wide right and that is probably the most likely solution right now. Could still be light snows from the northern stream but it wouldn’t be a major event. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Sunday at 05:10 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:10 PM 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: But the phasing is at like day 4...if the Euro suite continues trending to shit today, then that is egregiously bad. I still do think we can probably afford a day or two of waffling, but it can’t be gigantic shifts away from any phase on ensembles. I’ve made peace with being on the razor’s edge for any kind of snow event this season. We're not gonna do easy slam dunk anything. That’s not who we are anymore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Sunday at 05:11 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:11 PM 5 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: I never understood the argument for rain. If anything, this was going wide right and thats like 80% of the op solutions the last week or so. It’s really 2 options. And yes, we haven’t had 4 cycles of any one model showing a hit. All typical model cinema right now. Storms can and do come and go, only to come back. Boxing day did that for example. Not saying thats what we got here, but it happens. If it doesn’t re emerge by Tuesday 12 then we whiffing imo. That might even be a little early…I was thinking more Wednesday imo. And there have been a lot more than just Boxing Day that got lost…I listed the ones I remember a few pages back. But as we know every set up is different. But losing the storm is no surprise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Sunday at 05:16 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:16 PM 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I still do think we can probably afford a day or two of waffling, but it can’t be gigantic shifts away from any phase on ensembles. I’ve made peace with being on the razor’s edge for any kind of snow event this season. We're not gonna do easy slam dunk anything. That’s not who we are anymore. I’m gonna be honest…I don’t think with the modeling being so sensitive now, there will ever be a slam dunk at a week out in time, on a phased(more complicated)set up like this ever. Need to be closer in to see the players and how they are interacting, and that doesn’t happen until much closer in. Just my opinion. Euro probably gonna lose it too if I had to place a bet at this stage of where we are. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted Sunday at 05:18 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:18 PM Canadian and uncle have never been on board since they can't shake that sw energy, and the latest GFS has that sw energy digging again, and the northern stream was weaker as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Sunday at 05:21 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:21 PM Just now, WinterWolf said: I’m gonna be honest…I don’t think with the modeling being so sensitive now, there will ever be a slam dunk at a week out in time, on a phased(more complicated)set up like this ever. Need to be closer in to see the players and how they are interacting, and that doesn’t happen until much closer in. Just my opinion. Euro probably gonna lose it too if I had to place a bet at this stage of where we are. Maybe, but Ray’s point though, and you can see it clearly on the models, we know where this is headed long before the storm ejects out of the south. So we are kind of on a clock to figure out if a phase is happening and if so to what extent. This doesn’t strike me as a scenario where there’s a massive comeback inside 48h because by then the connection will have long been missed. We probably have until 18z Tuesday maybe 12z Wednesday. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted Sunday at 05:22 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:22 PM 10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: That might even be a little early…I was thinking more Wednesday imo. And there have been a lot more than just Boxing Day that got lost…I listed the ones I remember a few pages back. But as we know every set up is different. But losing the storm is no surprise. Well we will literally witness the phase but wednesday so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted Sunday at 05:23 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:23 PM Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Maybe, but Ray’s point though, and you can see it clearly on the models, we know where this is headed long before the storm ejects out of the south. So we are kind of on a clock to figure out if a phase is happening and if so to what extent. This doesn’t strike me as a scenario where there’s a massive comeback inside 48h because by then the connection will have long been missed. We probably have until 18z Tuesday maybe 12z Wednesday. Correct. We’ll know within 48hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted Sunday at 05:27 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:27 PM I'm with Will. If this goes bad it's a miss or a graze. Rain isn't going to be a huge issue even here on the coast. Taint? Sure but in this pattern and time of year I don't see it running over BOS. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kazimirkai Posted Sunday at 05:28 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:28 PM 58 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Northern stream is too fast and leaves behind that Baja energy. It's been a problem for years now. Best case is maybe 2-4/3-6" type deal so a slightly more amped up version of the GFS. Is that an effect of global warming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Sunday at 05:29 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:29 PM Well we’ll be on the look out come Tuesday then if that’s what you guys think. I wasn’t thinking anything like the last 48 hrs..nothing like that. Just figured Wednesday in my mind…but Tuesday is even better to know if she phases or not. Then we can shit can it, or be elated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted Sunday at 05:31 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:31 PM 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Well we’ll be on the look out come Tuesday then if that’s what you guys think. I wasn’t thinking anything like the last 48 hrs..nothing like that. Just figured Wednesday in my mind…but Tuesday is even better to know if she phases or not. Then we can shit can it, or be elated. Yup. Flurries, or an incoming atmospheric glacier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Sunday at 05:31 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:31 PM Im prepared for the Euro to lose it coming up..so anything other than that will be a plus at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted Sunday at 05:32 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:32 PM Take a look at difference of the shortwaves at top of ridge from current 12z euro and 00z euro. Newer runs weakened it. I really think this is what is partly hurting us. That shortwave isn’t as strong so isn’t diving as far S. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted Sunday at 05:34 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:34 PM Yuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kazimirkai Posted Sunday at 05:34 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:34 PM 35 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I mentioned this last night. I think people are desperate for an event (I get it) and have latched onto the very few OP run solutions that have shown an event. Too many moving parts for my liking. You need to phase in a precise window. I’d put the probability of a big event probably under 10% Don't all big storms have a bunch of moving parts that have to line up perfectly in a precise window? I've read the Kocin and Uccellini books and it seems the caliber of storms on some of the OP runs were never common. It's always taken a lot for them to happen. I don't have the benefit of lived experience though so Idrk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted Sunday at 05:39 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:39 PM No bueno 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted Sunday at 05:41 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:41 PM People aren’t going to like this run, not surprising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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