Jester January

[Kitz Craver]

One too many Margs down in TJ. Pull your ass off the bar, you’ve got a train to catch!!!

[40/70 Benchmark]

This run will probably look worse than 00z at the surface simply because we end up with all N stream, and that parcel of energy is weaker than that run. However, the important consideration is that the SW energy is not nearly as cut off as that run. Its just a bit too late.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Right goalpost solution. 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This run will probably look worse than 00z at the surface simply because we end up with all N stream, and that parcel of energy is weaker than that run. However, the important consideration is that the SW energy is not nearly as cut off as that run. Its just a bit too late.

Cmc also a mess

[Prismshine Productions]

And this begins my silent vigil...

See you all tomorrow, wife comes first

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc also a mess

Game over

Congrats Mid-Atlantic they're gonna clean up. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Right goalpost solution. 

Agreed.

[weathafella]

So far the entire 12z suite is a miss.  Waiting on euro. Uncle should be ignored after a Saturday night party.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Obviously this scales back confidence in a large storm, but not as much as it may ostensibly appear....wait on the GEFS and EURO suite. I still feel as though its coming.

[ice1972]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Chop Suey 

Why’d ya leave the ketchup on the table

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Agreed.

I think it’s going to take another day or two to narrow the envelope of possibilities here given how sensitive the entire forecast is to the evolution of that Baja energy. Would like to at least see the GFS/Euro and their ensembles lean toward a phase even if it’s still a bit messy on the means. Rather than take it off the table. Even this GFS run doesn’t totally foreclose a phase.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Agreed.

Yea. I’d lean towards the right post for now. Baja energy is tricky. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Snow is coming. Just likely a small - medium event 

[SnoSki14]

Northern stream is too fast and leaves behind that Baja energy. It's been a problem for years now. 

Best case is maybe 2-4/3-6" type deal so a slightly more amped up version of the GFS. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Game over

Congrats Mid-Atlantic they're gonna clean up. 

Each piece of guidance is a tool in our forecasting arsenal, and it's incumbent upon the forecaster to utilize knowledge and experience gleaned to discern how to use them in a given situation. In this case, I think the best use of the GEM would be to compare its northern stream iteration to that other guidance because it is likely to have a better handle on how potent that parcel of energy will be....as far as the main player INVO Baja...shit can it-

[Great Snow 1717]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Snow is coming. Just likely a small - medium event 

Uhmm you said the same for this storm...

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Each piece of guidance is a tool in our forecasting arsenal, and it's incumbent upon the forecaster to utilize knowledge and experience gleaned to discern how to use them in a given situation. In this case, I think the best use of the GEM would be to compare its northern stream iteration to that other guidance because it is likely to have a better handle on how potent that parcel of energy will be....as far as the main player INVO Baja...shit can it-

GEMS looks a bit more robust versus the GFS relative to the N stream parcel.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12z GFS looks like the 06z EURO to me....EURO maybe a bit worse....don't love that.

[Kitz Craver]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

12z GFS looks like the 06z EURO to me....EURO maybe a bit worse....don't love that.

Yeah… was really hoping that the 12z suite would somewhat continue to coalesce 

[weathafella]

It seems that it is quite common for models to show a big solution and then lose it in the d4-7 range before roaring it back to life.

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

It seems that it is quite common for models to show a big solution and then lose it in the d4-7 range before roaring it back to life.

I Said this earlier…does this almost every time we have a potential big solution.  This is going to waffle for a while unfortunately.  We know the game.  It’s already been brought back to life once ironically. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

It seems that it is quite common for models to show a big solution and then lose it in the d4-7 range before roaring it back to life.

Is this actually true though?

Seems like models are picking up on the energy lagging today, which would make sense.

[Hoth]

I get the feeling this system, or non-system, is going to be the meteorological equivalent of Ramsay Bolton torturing Theon in Game of Thrones. This thing just feels like it will be a COC tease followed by castration.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Is this actually true though?

Seems like models are picking up on the energy lagging today, which would make sense.

Go back to my post a few pages back…I named probably 5 big ones that faded out, and then came back closing in on go time.  It seems to happen more often than not.  Doesn’t guarantee anything obviously, but you almost expect this when we follow at these leads. 

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Is this actually true though?

Seems like models are picking up on the energy lagging today, which would make sense.

Just an observation.  We’ll find out if it has any relevance for this event.

[40/70 Benchmark]

GEFS not great....but better than 00z...similar to 06z.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Is this actually true though?

Seems like models are picking up on the energy lagging today, which would make sense.

It’s happened many times in the past but we’ve also had plenty of storms that just disappeared for good in the D5-6 range and never came back. If we got all garbage solutions at 12z it’s definitely concerning. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s happened many times in the past but we’ve also had plenty of storms that just disappeared for good in the D5-6 range and never came back. If we got all garbage solutions at 12z it’s definitely concerning. 

Not the progress I would like on the GEFS, but really no discouraging move, either.

[Hazey]

Other than two runs of the goofus and a run, maybe two of the euro, has any other lr guidance shown a hit? Seems the odds were really stacked against this threat.

[ROOSTA]

Delayed but not denied. Block over the "top" cross-polar flow. That screams something big this (your) way cometh.
Like the sands in the hour-glass...days of our lives. Sure, one would think and expect this or that outcome. Bottom line: No two scenarios are the same.
Hope lives...