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Jester January


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This is going to do the usual “it’s there, it’s not their”, routine that a lot of the bigger ones(phased systems) seem to do, especially at this lead time.  We’ve seen 5 OP hits(yesterday’s 12z GFS and Euro; yesterday’s 18z GFS; 0z Euro; todays 6z GFS)since it came back from the dead yesterday at 12z.  Six if we count last Tuesday when it first made a 1 time showing. So it’s had more than just a few showings.   
 

If we think back to the bigger events over the past, the back and forth is always there. Boxing Day; the second big one in Jan 11; Feb 13; Jan ’15(that came back from the dead at 2.5 days away); just to name a few, were all there and then gone at some stage. It almost seems to be a right of passage at this point a lot of times. Maybe due to the length at which we seem to track them from is also a good reason too.  
 

Of course some never come back, but the ones that did, they seem to always go away for awhile/or go back and forth before a solid consensus emerges one way or the other. So I think we are entering that wishy washy stage of this potential now as well. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

My gut says it’s coming in some shape or form. 

Yeah me too. It might not be a HECS/MECS but the longwave positions are pretty favorable to try and get something going. If it ends up more northern stream, it might take until we get closer to see some response at the sfc. But we’ll see. Been burned so many times the last couple years. At least we have a block to our northeast so it’s not completely threading the needle for the interior folks…I know it’s not a ton of consolidation for your area which might need a bit more precise track. 

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8 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

Considering that myself and many other NE Mets will be departing the region for the American Meteorological Society’s annual meeting in NOLA right before this storm, of course it’s going to happen. The atmosphere does have a sense of humor.

Or “irony” as I like to say.  I noticed that as a  teenager back in the 80’s.  But certainly agree. 

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah me too. It might not be a HECS/MECS but the longwave positions are pretty favorable to try and get something going. If it ends up more northern stream, it might take until we get closer to see some response at the sfc. But we’ll see. Been burned so many times the last couple years. At least we have a block to our northeast so it’s not completely threading the needle for the interior folks…I know it’s not a ton of consolidation for your area which might need a bit more precise track. 

I just want a decent storm, ideally SE of ACK lol.

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1 hour ago, UnitedWx said:

How is saying we need a quicker phase wish casting? There are SO many comments on here that are, but as discussion about what has to happen isn't. I should have you on ignore by now... but I'll just say you're an ass attm :D

 Its more advanced wishcasting. weenies say they are the ones in control of it happening. "Let's phase this piece here" or "maybe we can stop the mix line moving north!" Or the latest wolfie classic "One at a time Ice…we gotta reel this in first." As if you had a hand. :lol: It's a weird unconscious psych-driven phenom

anyway, I like the look on paper but not confident on outcomes.

 

 

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Good morning Northeast Crew, (as you can imagine, feeling the feels here at the pet hospital while my wife waits to put her cat down), just wanted to say that I have a hard time buying any run that gives the Mid-Atlantic, Northeast, *AND* Southeast a snowstorm and has a snowfall map looking like this. Got to watch the H5 evolutions on the 12 and 0z runs 8df0864f1a2e27fe1a282447867056d5.jpg

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk



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Speaking of waking up. First give thanks to seeing another day. Afib, and clots whatever.
What no 10-15 pages of back-patting and congrats.
A whiff? I can see why the consternation and lack of posts.
It's going to change, on to the 12z. OR Live vicariously through the Mid-West Blizzard.
Somewhere, somebody is getting some...LOL     

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