UnitedWx Posted Sunday at 12:54 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:54 PM 2 minutes ago, Heisy said: Yep, next few suites are bigger than normal. Very tentative with that energy diving over the ridge. Yes MJO 6-18z euro runs can be wacky. I really want to see both the GFS and euro have it again at 12z and icon/cmc starting to show some phasing. Euro Ai being close again would be good as well. We’ll see . 6 and 18z thing was put to bed a long time ago. I don't know why certain people keep bringing that up. It's just another calculation. Go back and look at the last 3 weeks and you'll see that some of the so-called on our runs were the ones with the wacky Solutions 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Sunday at 12:55 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:55 PM What will probably happen is a more normal type of low- medium impact storm vs the big boy. So it will probably snow .. but the big boy is very low prob 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted Sunday at 12:56 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:56 PM What did I miss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted Sunday at 12:56 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:56 PM LETSSSS FN GOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted Sunday at 12:58 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:58 PM 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: What will probably happen is a more normal type of low- medium impact storm vs the big boy. So it will probably snow .. but the big boy is very low prob I disagree, this has big boy potential written all over it. Looks like my close the shades call is fuct, I’ll gladly take some egg for this to come of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted Sunday at 12:58 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:58 PM What a bunch of broken weenies in here. I’m all in. 3 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted Sunday at 12:59 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:59 PM Just now, dendrite said: What a bunch of broken weenies in here. I’m all in. Absolutely, I just spit my coffee out. That guy pushing his chips is me all day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted Sunday at 01:02 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:02 PM 16 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: And please don’t start a thread today. wait until Tuesday And don't let tip do it. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Sunday at 01:05 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:05 PM 6 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said: I disagree, this has big boy potential written all over it. Looks like my close the shades call is fuct, I’ll gladly take some egg for this to come of it. GGEM and GPS have nothing and the Euro lost it . Big signal to be careful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted Sunday at 01:13 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:13 PM 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: GGEM and GPS have nothing and the Euro lost it . Big signal to be careful Haven’t seen 6z at H5, but the last off hour run dragged the energy in the SW…00z and 12z were better. I have cautious optimism, but today is a big day to start getting all models on board for a system riding up the coast. The trough coming out of Baja is in the 120-144hr window now. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted Sunday at 01:17 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:17 PM 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: GGEM and GPS have nothing and the Euro lost it . Big signal to be careful Big 12z runs today. It’ll come back 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted Sunday at 01:18 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:18 PM 25 minutes ago, Heisy said: Yep, next few suites are bigger than normal. Very tentative with that energy diving over the ridge. Yes MJO 6-18z euro runs can be wacky. I really want to see both the GFS and euro have it again at 12z and icon/cmc starting to show some phasing. Euro Ai being close again would be good as well. We’ll see . Sometimes they briefly disappear at this stage so it might come back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Sunday at 01:20 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:20 PM 3 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said: Big 12z runs today. It’ll come back Settle down 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Sunday at 01:21 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:21 PM plenty of time.. i'd really like it better if there was more than a tepid response from the eps/gefs. and what's with virtually no acknowledgement from the geps ... in all is a bit unsettling for confidence in this thing. there are still possibilities that are about 1/3 each: completely missing phase; partial phase; proficient phase. these latter two need to get above 40% and start divorcing from the complete missed phase, because it occurs to me ( anyway ...) that whenever there is no phase, the n/stream is not ever getting it done. just in a crude sense, the sensitivity as to whether there's anything worth really threading for (deterministically) comes down to establishing confidence in the phase proficiency obviously, the agreement by the 12z op euro, yesterday, was hinted and as everyone's seen ... the 0z basically married the 18z and 6z op gfs solutions. cmc largely follows it's ensemble mean - it's an impressive storm potential, no argument. anytime a storm evolves in guidance ...it's like they can't constrain and go right to or nearing apex solutions. but again, this appears so far to be very determined by phasing. if the ens means start coalescing better ( and it wouldn't hurt to get he cmc cluster to wake up even a little ) 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted Sunday at 01:22 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:22 PM 6 and 18z thing was put to bed a long time ago. I don't know why certain people keep bringing that up. It's just another calculation. Go back and look at the last 3 weeks and you'll see that some of the so-called on our runs were the ones with the wacky SolutionsI agree, I was just relating to MJO. 6z euro going to the way it did mattered, but we can still quickly reverse it at 12z . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted Sunday at 01:22 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:22 PM Just now, CoastalWx said: Settle down Yeah, I was busy with my Son’s Basketball yesterday and did a massive catch up coupled with incredibly strong coffee this morning. Duly noted. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Sunday at 01:25 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:25 PM Those solutions are more interior solutions. Tuckies are suckies around ern areas. Those are definitely ORH specials. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted Sunday at 01:26 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:26 PM 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Settle down I notice the Mets seem cautiously optimistic…Ray Brian Scott? And others. I wonder if that is because this is a simple matter of timing versus a bunch of short waves in the flow to screw things up. It’s not as complex as some of the recent stuff has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Sunday at 01:28 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:28 PM 2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: I notice the Mets seem cautiously optimistic…Ray Brian Scott? And others. I wonder if that is because this is a simple matter of timing versus a bunch of short waves in the flow to screw things up. It’s not as complex as some of the recent stuff has been. When did Ray get his degree?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted Sunday at 01:31 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:31 PM 2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: I notice the Mets seem cautiously optimistic…Ray Brian Scott? And others. I wonder if that is because this is a simple matter of timing versus a bunch of short waves in the flow to screw things up. It’s not as complex as some of the recent stuff has been. No, they are right to be cautious. When trying for a phased solution like this it’s tenuous. Just really happy to have potentially something high end to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Sunday at 01:34 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:34 PM I’m cautious and those solutions make me want to delete my account so someone else can comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted Sunday at 01:40 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:40 PM 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’m cautious and those solutions make me want to delete my account so someone else can comment. Don’t do it! The Mid Atlantic needs you!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted Sunday at 01:47 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:47 PM Both major AI models show something similar....the phase occurs on time, but too much Tippy compression over FL (576 over St. Augustine, not Miami) doesn't allow the base of the trough to go negative, at least not quickly enough. Both are Cape scrapers. Edit: The 06z euro AI just rolled in. Massive whiff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Sunday at 01:50 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:50 PM There’s something happening here… what it is ain’t exactly clear.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted Sunday at 01:50 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:50 PM 1 hour ago, Heisy said: True, but the phase that we need for this to become a large event happens at around 96-102 hours so really not that far out. . This is a week out and we are talking about a small window for this to phase to bring an appreciable event to this area. I think it’s asking a lot to have any sort of confidence in that type of accuracy before like Thursday. I think the odds on favorite is a missed phase at this point. A lot needs to go right, and there is a reason the ensembles are mediocre and we’ve only seen a few OP hits. Canadian also wants nothing to do with this, so it seems like people are completing tossing guidance that doesn’t have a storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted Sunday at 01:54 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:54 PM 1 hour ago, UnitedWx said: Is this a repost of a quote from 15 years ago? That has long been dispelled I have still noted a diurnal fluctuation, though..... 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted Sunday at 01:55 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:55 PM 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: There’s something happening here… what it is ain’t exactly clear.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted Sunday at 01:57 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:57 PM 31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Those solutions are more interior solutions. Tuckies are suckies around ern areas. Those are definitely ORH specials. I think they look fine for my area...latitude helps because the system only gets so far to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Sunday at 01:59 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:59 PM Definitely some juicy ensemble members so it’s not a fairytale. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted Sunday at 01:59 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:59 PM 24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’m cautious and those solutions make me want to delete my account so someone else can comment. Maybe time for an avatar change to shake things up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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