H2Otown_WX Posted Sunday at 11:05 AM Share Posted Sunday at 11:05 AM Its own ensembles think it's out to lunch...almost half have nothing and a few are suppressed to the south congrats DC-PHL type deals. Looks like maybe 3 that are similar to the OP. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Sunday at 11:07 AM Share Posted Sunday at 11:07 AM 5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I would take the CTRV over GON any day of the week That is the worst. I'm not feeling good about my Saturday event after the 06Z coming back to the game. Still lots of time of course. If I cancel it, the big question will be whether I stay in Westborough or come to Pit2. Well if it does hit it would be late Saturday nite and Sunday .. maybe into Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted Sunday at 11:09 AM Share Posted Sunday at 11:09 AM 8 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I would take the CTRV over GON any day of the week That is the worst. I'm not feeling good about my Saturday event after the 06Z coming back to the game. Still lots of time of course. If I cancel it, the big question will be whether I stay in Westborough or come to Pit2. Yes, but if you're moving from out of state, Research would show that there's FAR better areas in SNE than the Hartford proper area! Even in great years you do far better elsewhere. I was shooting for Blandford, but as good as the other half would accept is Westfield. Been decent here, but has been far better up the hill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Sunday at 11:10 AM Share Posted Sunday at 11:10 AM Just now, UnitedWx said: Yes, but if you're moving from out of state, Research would say that there's FAR better areas in SNE than the Hartford proper area! Even in great years you do far better elsewhere. I was shooting for Blandford, but as good as the other half would accept is Westfield. Been decent here, but has been far better up the hill And he likely was drunk when he made the decision , so that didn’t help . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted Sunday at 11:25 AM Share Posted Sunday at 11:25 AM 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Well if it does hit it would be late Saturday nite and Sunday .. maybe into Monday I havent seen timing on ensembles, but it's earlier than that on the Euro and GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted Sunday at 11:27 AM Share Posted Sunday at 11:27 AM 22 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: Its own ensembles think it's out to lunch...almost half have nothing and a few are suppressed to the south congrats DC-PHL type deals. Looks like maybe 3 that are similar to the OP. At this point, the OP is an ensemble. It's still a ways away, but at least it's something to track 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted Sunday at 11:35 AM Share Posted Sunday at 11:35 AM …and then I wake up and the 6z euro misses the phase. Did not expect that either sheesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted Sunday at 11:38 AM Share Posted Sunday at 11:38 AM Very tentative situation with that phase. Could go either way, obviously just a little good or bad timing goes one way or other. I’ll stick with EPS for now so hopefully we see 6z EPS hold steady . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Sunday at 11:40 AM Share Posted Sunday at 11:40 AM 4 minutes ago, Heisy said: …and then I wake up and the 6z euro misses the phase. Did not expect that either sheesh . not all that different, just disjointed. within the range of error at this lead time 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted Sunday at 11:47 AM Share Posted Sunday at 11:47 AM 11 minutes ago, Heisy said: …and then I wake up and the 6z euro misses the phase. Did not expect that either sheesh . This is still a full week away. It’s best to have very low expectations until probably Thursday or Friday. 6z euro is a nice dose of reality 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted Sunday at 11:48 AM Share Posted Sunday at 11:48 AM We really need that N stream energy to dive over that ridge quickly and start the phasing. You can see the 6z euro is just a touch slower with it and that caused it to miss the phase. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted Sunday at 11:49 AM Share Posted Sunday at 11:49 AM This is still a full week away. It’s best to have very low expectations until probably Thursday or Friday. 6z euro is a nice dose of reality True, but the phase that we need for this to become a large event happens at around 96-102 hours so really not that far out. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted Sunday at 11:49 AM Share Posted Sunday at 11:49 AM fluctuating between a tucky bomb and something way out to sea. I'll take a partial phase/ neither of those options Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted Sunday at 12:03 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:03 PM 13 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: fluctuating between a tucky bomb and something way out to sea. I'll take a partial phase/ neither of those options Day 7, so we probably won’t end up with the prognosticated solution anyhow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted Sunday at 12:08 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:08 PM Less of a phase on 6z eps, we’ll see what 12z data says, kind of disappointing after that 00z euro and 6z gfs run. Plenty of time, but like I said that phase happens around day 4-5 so not an eternity . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted Sunday at 12:12 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:12 PM You know juju is missing if not dead, when people start the 'we gotta phase that energy sooner" or "let's bring this one in" banter, and their wishcasting will impact outcomes 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted Sunday at 12:14 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:14 PM Day 7, so we probably won’t end up with the prognosticated solution anyhowYeah the storm hits us day 7, but this is a phasing event where the phase happens day 4-5. We need the models to hop on fast imo. Getting close to that 84-96 hour mark. Next few model suites are huge if this is going to happen. This isn’t like Mondays event where you’re just hoping for a N or S trend based on strength of the 50/50 and main wave, this is either the event will happen or it won’t based on if it phases properly. You could get a partial phase but that likely means something like last nights GFS, Just my opinion from experience. If by 00z tonight models aren’t on board id be worried. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted Sunday at 12:39 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:39 PM Too soon to get excited. Especially when it’s this tenuous. Late night model runs are like a drug and warp the mind. Let’s see where we are tomorrow morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Sunday at 12:44 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:44 PM 55 minutes ago, Heisy said: True, but the phase that we need for this to become a large event happens at around 96-102 hours so really not that far out. . 6z and 18z runs are notorious to be whacky. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted Sunday at 12:44 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:44 PM 4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Too soon to get excited. Especially when it’s this tenuous. Late night model runs are like a drug and warp the mind. Let’s see where we are tomorrow morning. If people are already excited, these past few years have taught people nothing. Wait till hour 96 to sound the alarms ffs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted Sunday at 12:45 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:45 PM 30 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: You know juju is missing if not dead, when people start the 'we gotta phase that energy sooner" or "let's bring this one in" banter, and their wishcasting will impact outcomes How is saying we need a quicker phase wish casting? There are SO many comments on here that are, but as discussion about what has to happen isn't. I should have you on ignore by now... but I'll just say you're an ass attm 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted Sunday at 12:45 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:45 PM Flip flop on guidance. Wanna see some more consensus today. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted Sunday at 12:45 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:45 PM And please don’t start a thread today. wait until Tuesday 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted Sunday at 12:45 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:45 PM Just now, MJO812 said: 6z and 18z runs are notorious to be whacky. Is this a repost of a quote from 15 years ago? That has long been dispelled 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted Sunday at 12:45 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:45 PM Just now, ORH_wxman said: Flip flop on guidance. Wanna see some more consensus today. Yes and the Canadian and uk should show something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted Sunday at 12:46 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:46 PM Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: And please don’t start a thread today. wait until Tuesday Wednesday.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Sunday at 12:46 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:46 PM Just now, UnitedWx said: Is this a repost of a quote from 15 years ago? That has long been dispelled It's true 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted Sunday at 12:47 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:47 PM 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: And please don’t start a thread today. wait until Tuesday And not before the 18z run on Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted Sunday at 12:51 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:51 PM Flip flop on guidance. Wanna see some more consensus today. Yep, next few suites are bigger than normal. Very tentative with that energy diving over the ridge. Yes MJO 6-18z euro runs can be wacky. I really want to see both the GFS and euro have it again at 12z and icon/cmc starting to show some phasing. Euro Ai being close again would be good as well. We’ll see . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted Sunday at 12:53 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:53 PM 7 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: Wednesday.... Even better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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