Jester January

[WxWatcher007]

14 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Do you have the prior frames or does it not form until hr 174?

It forms long before this but here are the early surface panels that matter to us. It’s a crushah 

 

 

[8611Blizz]

Just now, ice1972 said:

a week away lol.....so many ways this can be tanked.....

It could be tanked, or it might just be less. At half those totals I would be pretty happy.

If people are taking these maps verbatim then they need to seek professional help. 

[Greg]

3 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

It could be tanked, or it might just be less. At half those totals I would be pretty happy.

If people are taking these maps verbatim then they need to seek professional help. 

Very true statement! Violently agree.

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

It could be tanked, or it might just be less. At half those totals I would be pretty happy.

If people are taking these maps verbatim then they need to seek professional help. 

Obviously no guarantees at all, but if you look at the H5 depiction on that Euro, and the SLP track and intensity, and it isn’t exactly flying by either(taking it’s time), there is some upper end potential there…putting clown maps aside.  Ensembles are also indicating a strong signal as well.  So some positive developments at 0z. 

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Obviously no guarantees at all, but if you look at the H5 depiction on that Euro, and the SLP track and intensity, and it isn’t exactly flying by either(taking it’s time), there is some upper end potential there…putting clown maps aside.  Ensembles are also indicating a strong signal as well.  So some positive developments at 0z. 

Ensembles are particularly encouraging 

[ice1972]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, but starting around midday today my instinct is telling me it's a go...you are right, though. I'm just feeling this one now that I feel more confident that SW energy is coming to play.

dude you are obviously better at this than I but while I would take this one no doubt - I would need follow up.....the season has to follow through if it means business and the last few seasons are so wimpy.....and if next week is all we get then I declare - wimpy wimpy wimpy......gonna need stamina here.....

[mitchnick]

Eps. Total thru 186hrs.

[8611Blizz]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Obviously no guarantees at all, but if you look at the H5 depiction on that Euro, and the SLP track and intensity, and it isn’t exactly flying by either(taking it’s time), there is some upper end potential there…putting clown maps aside.  Ensembles are also indicating a strong signal as well. 

Potential is good for sure, but we are still a fair amount of time away from this and those crazy totals (particularly for those of us on the coast) can evaporate pretty quickly depending on track and where the front sets up. 48 hours from now if these totals are still shown I'll be much more intrigued...

[WinterWolf]

One at a time Ice…we gotta reel this in first. Let’s not get ahead of, or over our skis. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, 8611Blizz said:

Potential is good for sure, but we are still a fair amount of time away from this and those crazy totals (particularly for those of us on the coast) can evaporate pretty quickly depending on track and where the front sets up. 48 hours from now if these totals are still shown I'll be much more intrigued...

I wasn’t looking or talking totals, I was just looking at the set up in general on that run.  But yes, to be sure, long way to go. 

[H2Otown_WX]

19 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It forms long before this but here are the early surface panels that matter to us. It’s a crushah 

 

 

Looks nearly identical to the 18z GFS until it jumps SE in the later panels. I'm wondering why it's so progressive when we have the blocking in place? I guess because the block is relaxing a bit in that timeframe?

[ice1972]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

One at a time Ice…we gotta reel this in first. Let’s not get ahead of, or over our skis. 

I get it.....we lost December so I'm bummed about that but if we get next week I can give it probably 2 or 3 weeks to build off of it....after that its gone.....can't recover.....love you man

[WinterWolf]

It didn’t look all that progressive to me.  It starts snowing around 160, and it’s still snowing at 180..that doesn’t look all that quick compared to some of late.  It’s probably not worth much at this lead, but just what I noticed. 

[ice1972]

When I moved to New England 20 years ago I had high hopes......I had thought it was the same as Lake Tahoe.....damn I have learned a lot......retirement at Tahoe Keys all set lol

[ice1972]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

It didn’t look all that progressive to me.  It starts snowing around 160, and it’s still snowing at 180..that doesn’t look all that quick compared to some of late.  It’s probably not worth much at this lead, but just what I noticed. 

long lead time though no? Can't rely on that...

[40/70 Benchmark]

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/01/increasing-likelihood-of-intense-winter.html

[UnitedWx]

And the latest GFS says here's our storm again...

[UnitedWx]

[UnitedWx]

[SnoSki14]

4 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

And the latest GFS says here's our storm again...

This could easily end up too wound up. 

From too much confluence and a suppressed track to not enough confluence and a cutter. 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 hours ago, ice1972 said:

When I moved to New England 20 years ago I had high hopes......I had thought it was the same as Lake Tahoe.....damn I have learned a lot......retirement at Tahoe Keys all set lol

You moved to the CTRV.. the least snowy place in New England 

[Heisy]

Wow I did not expect to wake up to see that euro/eps run lol; and the 6z GFS!


.

[brooklynwx99]

13 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

This could easily end up too wound up. 

From too much confluence and a suppressed track to not enough confluence and a cutter. 

cutter? the 06z GFS is a cutter to you?

[UnitedWx]

15 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

This could easily end up too wound up. 

From too much confluence and a suppressed track to not enough confluence and a cutter. 

Oh no doubt,  or a miss south/less amped. We have many more days to go before I put any real stock in it. I do however feel like we're due to get our share this season 

[UnitedWx]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

cutter? the 06z GFS is a cutter to you?

That's not what he meant.  He was referencing future runs possibilities 

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, UnitedWx said:

That's not what he meant.  He was referencing future runs possibilities 

I guess. this kind of setup with confluence leading in along with a 50/50 offshore argue against a true cutter. maybe a runner / transfer, but even that will still bring potentially heavy snow at some point in the evolution. especially with a bomb

[Heisy]

6z GEFS is going full out this run I think, LFG boys!


.

[UnitedWx]

6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I guess. this kind of setup with confluence leading in along with a 50/50 offshore argue against a true cutter. maybe a runner / transfer, but even that will still bring potentially heavy snow at some point in the evolution. especially with a bomb

I hear you and agree,  although I think my concern is actually having a storm as wound up as depicted. Nice to see other support this morning for sure 

[moneypitmike]

25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You moved to the CTRV.. the least snowy place in New England 

I would  take the CTRV over GON any day of the week  That is the worst.

 

I'm not feeling good about my Saturday event after the 06Z coming back to the game.  Still lots of time of course.  If I cancel it, the big question will be whether I stay in Westborough or come to Pit2.

[moneypitmike]

p/c not exactly squawking.  lol