Jester January

[dryslot]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

So you want me to lie? I tell it like it is. 
 

Maybe you missed my earlier posts about the pattern.

Yes.

[MJO812]

Eps woof 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Eps woof 

Wish that would actually verify that’s damn cold and potentially snowy days 10-15.. but I am jaded as there have been many perfect patterns modeled the last few years and the opposite ended up verifying. I’ll believe it a week from now. But I’d rather have it look like this than the alternative this far out. Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays everyone. 
 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

12z eps and operational euro are more emphatic about my jan 2nd system actually existing on the map  - heh... that's important for one. 

but, the operational euro's position thru ny state is a warm/west outlier relative to the ensemble mean, which is in fact, deeper than its 00z depiction, and also more se, taking a low along the climate track that typically does well...

also the ensemble mean is showing that a cold solution at 850 mb is on the table

i think we should be at minimum not flouting this energy here in this range.  it's 7 consecutive eps mean cycles getting 2 mb more coherent per, and this is still 200+ hours, while the 850 is getting ticks colder.

 

[weathafella]

24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

True but all relative. I still would be out there nude with a mistletoe over my weenie if I got what you got. 

Yeah for sure.  It feels like 2 feet due to the relativity of it in the context of the past few winters. 

[eduggs]

29 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

12z eps and operational euro are more emphatic about my jan 2nd system actually existing on the map  - heh... that's important for one. 

but, the operational euro's position thru ny state is a warm/west outlier relative to the ensemble mean, which is in fact, deeper than its 00z depiction, and also more se, taking a low along the climate track that typically does well...

also the ensemble mean is showing that a cold solution at 850 mb is on the table

i think we should be at minimum not flouting this energy here in this range.  it's 7 consecutive eps mean cycles getting 2 mb more coherent per, and this is still 200+ hours, while the 850 is getting ticks colder.

 

A lot of those SLP positions at hr204 look pretty sweet, but based on the snow depth change through that time period, temperatures outside the mountains are a problem. We watch.

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, eduggs said:

A lot of those SLP positions at hr204 look pretty sweet, but based on the snow depth change through that time period, temperatures outside the mountains are a problem. We watch.

yeah .. i mean not to oversell it - just don't ignore.  that doesn't have to modulate a ton to be the first player entering that time span.  

i feel pretty confident - more so than climo for this range and modeling ... - that there'll be a system then and there but lots of time to iron out the marginality

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, UnitedWx said:

So, you're saying less swamp ass? Seriously though, that's about as promising as you could ask for at this point 

yeah, the more i've analyzed the hemi this morning i suggest the gefs merely strayed for a day.  there's weight coming from other telecon that offer less support.   it happens.   it's not an indictment before anyone gets started with that vamp, not at this range.  we've seen the eps do that before. 

 

[mahk_webstah]

Waiting for one of those Tip threads. I thought the one for December 20-22 was really interesting and bore fruit even if not a big snowstorm for us. I guess you are already doing it here in this thread Tip.

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

Waiting for one of those Tip threads. I thought the one for December 20-22 was really interesting and bore fruit even if not a big snowstorm for us. I guess you are already doing it here in this thread Tip.

i'm considering but i'm pressed for time... i have to go to a ham dinner in a jiff.    maybe tonight when i return?    it would have to be another "experimental outlook" as though i'm keen on an event around the 2nd/3rd, i'm far less sure it will be the "type" of impactor folks want to read about ... hahaha.  

by the way, the only thing that is off putting about this particular mean for any sane winter enthusiast is the fact that it's at the end of the run and thus liable to change.  But even so... therein consider this amplitude at this time range - i'm like whaaa

[ORH_wxman]

18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah .. i mean not to oversell it - just don't ignore.  that doesn't have to modulate a ton to be the first player entering that time span.  

i feel pretty confident - more so than climo for this range and modeling ... - that there'll be a system then and there but lots of time to iron out the marginality

The threat on Jan 1-2 has subtly cooled today on guidance. I am skeptical for SNE on a lot of wintry precip for that one. But it could trend enough for CNE and NNE. 
 

But yeah, the time range still makes something more interesting down here at least plausible. I really like the look after that system but it would be a great bonus to score anything from Jan 1-2.  

[mitchnick]

Fwiw, today's weeklies colder again and they lost the AN temps for the last week as a reload from sw Canada looks to be imminent. 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202412240000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501060000

[Snowcrazed71]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

So you want me to lie? I tell it like it is. 
 

Maybe you missed my earlier posts about the pattern.

No no... Please don't misunderstand me. And I'm not trying to knock you. I get what you're saying is true. I'm not saying don't say how you feel. It's just that most of your posts are so negative, it doesn't make things better. Going to happen in January. Yes, last year turned into s***, but doesn't mean this year is going to turn into s*** as well. All I'm saying is, having some optimism sometimes isn't a bad thing. 

In the end, it's your choice on how you want to feel. I'm just trying to turn a little more pessimism into optimism. That's all.

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The threat on Jan 1-2 has subtly cooled today on guidance. I am skeptical for SNE on a lot of wintry precip for that one. But it could trend enough for CNE and NNE. 
 

But yeah, the time range still makes something more interesting down here at least plausible. I really like the look after that system but it would be a great bonus to score anything from Jan 1-2.  

yup .

also, to reiterate the 6-7th still has the better 'conceptual cold' look just given to the evolution, et al  ... 'Brooks and I have been discussing going back. but that's technically gaga range

[dryslot]

This upcoming period looks very good potentially, We watch, We wait.

[CoastalWx]

15 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

No no... Please don't misunderstand me. And I'm not trying to knock you. I get what you're saying is true. I'm not saying don't say how you feel. It's just that most of your posts are so negative, it doesn't make things better. Going to happen in January. Yes, last year turned into s***, but doesn't mean this year is going to turn into s*** as well. All I'm saying is, having some optimism sometimes isn't a bad thing. 

In the end, it's your choice on how you want to feel. I'm just trying to turn a little more pessimism into optimism. That's all.

Well I post a lot about other areas getting pounded while I get porked so maybe you missed that too?

I’m kind of done elaborating about a pattern 2+ weeks out. There’s only so much to say. I think so far it looks good, but honestly it’s all talk. Time to shit or get off the pot. Let’s see what this looks like after the NY. 

[CoastalWx]

30 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

i'm considering but i'm pressed for time... i have to go to a ham dinner in a jiff.    maybe tonight when i return?    it would have to be another "experimental outlook" as though i'm keen on an event around the 2nd/3rd, i'm far less sure it will be the "type" of impactor folks want to read about ... hahaha.  

by the way, the only thing that is off putting about this particular mean for any sane winter enthusiast is the fact that it's at the end of the run and thus liable to change.  But even so... therein consider this amplitude at this time range - i'm like whaaa

Honestly can’t recall an amplitude like that 360 hours out.

[mahk_webstah]

42 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

i'm considering but i'm pressed for time... i have to go to a ham dinner in a jiff.    maybe tonight when i return?    it would have to be another "experimental outlook" as though i'm keen on an event around the 2nd/3rd, i'm far less sure it will be the "type" of impactor folks want to read about ... hahaha.  

by the way, the only thing that is off putting about this particular mean for any sane winter enthusiast is the fact that it's at the end of the run and thus liable to change.  But even so... therein consider this amplitude at this time range - i'm like whaaa

I like that set up because the block isn’t too far south so that can get stuff up here. But man would that be cold

[mahk_webstah]

16 minutes ago, dryslot said:

This upcoming period looks very good potentially, We watch, We wait.

I think most of us are jaded so we have to be tempered at this point. it’s good. It’s the holiday time because that will make the time seem to go more quickly because for many of us we are having pleasant distractions.

[mahk_webstah]

18 minutes ago, dryslot said:

This upcoming period looks very good potentially, We watch, We wait.

Let’s make the Dec 30 one work for us 

[SJonesWX]

3 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

any reason why?

Surely you are not expecting a response from the 5ppd troll. unless there is a 300+ hour map showing a torch somewhere, he doesn’t post

[Snowcrazed71]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Well I post a lot about other areas getting pounded while I get porked so maybe you missed that too?

I’m kind of done elaborating about a pattern 2+ weeks out. There’s only so much to say. I think so far it looks good, but honestly it’s all talk. Time to shit or get off the pot. Let’s see what this looks like after the NY. 

No, I saw that. I know what you posted about other areas. Not to get blunt with you, but stop crying. It could easily have been the other way around. The last thing I'm going to do is complain that I didn't get anything and other people did. How old are we? 10? 

I guess we'll agree to disagree, but I do think everyone's hope here is to see a bona fide winter with several snowstorms for all! 

Merry Christmas!

[Torch Tiger]

58 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Let’s make the Dec 30 one work for us 

How do you engineer this? 

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

No, I saw that. I know what you posted about other areas. Not to get blunt with you, but stop crying. It could easily have been the other way around. The last thing I'm going to do is complain that I didn't get anything and other people did. How old are we? 10? 

I guess we'll agree to disagree, but I do think everyone's hope here is to see a bona fide winter with several snowstorms for all! 

Merry Christmas!

Egg nog?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Snowcrazed is a member of Wolf’s pack…

[brooklynwx99]

GEFS masterclass

[Damage In Tolland]

May be trending Jan 1-2 into an icestorm in SNE and snow north 

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Snowcrazed is a member of Wolf’s pack…

Always on the prowl. Devouring negativity.

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

May be trending Jan 1-2 into an icestorm in SNE and snow north 

Union north 

[CoastalWx]

2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Snowcrazed is a member of Wolf’s pack…

Lobbying for positivity. That should say it all.