Jester January

[H2Otown_WX]

4 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

I heard Millennium storm?  

I would say the 18z run does look similar to that storm but that changed BOS to rain

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

No Dec ‘92…that storm was stalled for like 30+ hours, lol. 

Same kind of track though 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Not that it matters but don't you think the 700 mb track on the 18z is much less favorable than 12z? Looks like there would be dryslot issues for CT anyway.

Yep 

[Go Kart Mozart]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

i think there was a storm in the early 1960s that wound up a 960 low and there was thundersnow with 70 mph wind gust - Jerry or Will might know

Tip, any thoughts on when you thread this up?  It would clear a bunch of traffic from this thread.  My suggestion is that we allow Tip the honors....I can't wait read the 5,000 word treatise!

[CoastalWx]

Just now, H2Otown_WX said:

I would say the 18z run does look similar to that storm but that changed BOS to rain

 It get it even 40 miles south and it wound bury to CT

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Go Kart Mozart said:

Tip, any thoughts on when you thread this up?  It would clear a bunch of traffic from this thread.  My suggestion is that we allow Tip the honors....I can't wait read the 5,000 word treatise!

Don’t thread it now. Will doom it.

[Typhoon Tip]

18 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

What do we call a 2 stream phaser?  I figured Miller A cuz it launches from the Gulf.  Phaser sounds cool.

i get it ...   i didn't mean to be declarative even tough i typed it like an dink.    early jan 1978; now that was a miller A.     capturing from an n-stream just seems to pollute the miller A model to me.  interesting.  

i like miller D frankly for phasing

[dendrite]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yep 

That’s a monster front end though and H7 basically tracks along the Pike as the center quickly shoots east. Not worth worrying about details though. Still need to have the actual storm first.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I’d roll the dice with that honestly. Might be issues for a bit but still a lot of snow.

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

No Dec ‘92…that storm was stalled for like 30+ hours, lol. 

negligible comparison... analog loading is roughly 4%

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, cleetussnow said:

I heard Millennium storm?  

Nah that one tracked due north over eastern MA even just west of BOS. 

[Damage In Tolland]

This would crawl with the block 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

That’s a monster front end though and H7 basically tracks along the Pike as the center quickly shoots east. Not worth worrying about details though. Still need to have the actual storm first.

I think its fun to look at those type of details even far out...if anything so you at least make sure you're covering all the bases as you get closer to forecast time. I'll be posting some bufkit profiles soon we all can geek over!!! 18z bufkit should be out in 5.5 minutes

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 It get it even 40 miles south and it wound bury to CT

Trying to figure out what you’re saying here Scott ?   

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Trying to figure out what you’re saying here Scott ?   

40 miles south of that 18z depiction and you will be a very happy wolf 

[Typhoon Tip]

how about this beaut is just unique and has never happened before - so there's no way to know what horrors it may have in store ..

muah hahahahahaha

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

how about this beaut is just unique and has never happened before - so there's no way to know what horrors it may have in store ..

muah hahahahahaha

this has pretty much every box checked off synoptically: phasing trough over the OH Valley, decaying west based -NAO, huge, slow moving 50/50, and antecedent cold air

just a matter of how it all comes together 

[EastonSN+]

Litchfield county in Connecticut absolutely raked in that depiction.

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

40 miles south of that 18z depiction and you will be a very happy wolf 

Thanks.  
 

I’d be pretty happy if that solution played as is at 18z too I think.  At least something to track is a good thing.  

[George001]

12 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’d roll the dice with that honestly. Might be issues for a bit but still a lot of snow.

Yeah I don’t expect either of us to be the bullseye in this type of setup, that will likely be NW of us. I would rather this than another southern slider though, decent snows on the front end before going over to mix and or rain. If I get 6 inches and 20 miles NW gets 2 feet, so be it. The ski areas need the snow anyways. Hopefully we can get lucky and get a low track 25-50 or so miles SE of where the GFS has it.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Monster GEFS signal wow

[Typhoon Tip]

huge step from the gefs ... not ideal yet, but considering the last three cycles in consecutive order, this gets interesting

[Prismshine Productions]

Paging [mention=919]HIPPYVALLEY[/mention] and [mention=1782]ineedsnow[/mention]

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this has pretty much every box checked off synoptically: phasing trough over the OH Valley, decaying west based -NAO, huge, slow moving 50/50, and antecedent cold air

just a matter of how it all comes together 

just posted the member position at 168 hours

[klw]

40 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

jesus, we're almost back to that crazy run from 4 days ago   holy smokes!

duh, of course we are, I locked it in backed then.  What is the point of locking in a 40"+ snowfall if it then doesn't happen?

[Chrisrotary12]

Been busy all day and didn't read back but I'm sure we all had a reasonable reaction to the last two runs of the GFS?

[cleetussnow]

13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

i get it ...   i didn't mean to be declarative even tough i typed it like an dink.    early jan 1978; now that was a miller A.     capturing from an n-stream just seems to pollute the miller A model to me.  interesting.  

i like miller D frankly for phasing

Nah yer good.  Didn’t know that was a thing.  Looking for phaser storm analogous to this one.  
 

with the block and phase scenario, this has a lot of interesting pieces.  

[cleetussnow]

1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Been busy all day and didn't read back but I'm sure we all had a reasonable reaction to the last two runs of the GFS?

Yep just getting cleaned up now.  

[Cyclone-68]

As the experts like to say, sometimes the real big ones are depicted several days in advance on multiple models before they strike 

[cleetussnow]

I’d say thread this after tomorrow’s 12z runs if we stay the course tween now and then.  Tip gets the honors.