Jester January

[Henry's Weather]

1 hour ago, Prismshine Productions said:

lol the CFS drops a regionwide double digit bomb on the 27th

This is how you know the CFS shows nothing for the 11th

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

jesus, we're almost back to that crazy run from 4 days ago   holy smokes!

I was thinking the same thing.....that 18z run a few days ago might have been on to something.

I suppose if we have to cancel the event early enough, I might make it up to Pit2 and enjoy some more wind.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

I'm a bit leary of Miller A's though for up here.

The entire forum should be. Slightly less leery down in SW CT but the majority of us always hold our breath on them. But beggars can’t be choosers at this point. We’ll take any plowable snowstorm right now. 

[CoastalWx]

More random boobie lows. What’s with that lately. 

[cleetussnow]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

not sure phasing/capture is a Miller A

it's like a Miller D ...seriously...  or C or something but it's not a gulf wave running up along the ec.  yeah, there's an instantiation of surface wave associated with tennessee valley convection/vestigial b-c axis, but the capture and bombing is really the take-off plateform and it's more of a "cloaked Miller B"  so to speak -

What do we call a 2 stream phaser?  I figured Miller A cuz it launches from the Gulf.  Phaser sounds cool.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

That’s tucked but thankfully that block up north helps keep those 925s solid. Still tough for immediate coast at the height of it but just inland would slay. 

I was getting nervous when I saw the tucked look but was pleasantly surprised when I saw the thermals...thank you block. I can't wait for the 18z GFS bufkit. Thankfully this is just inside the 180hr mark but I can't wait to geek out over omega overlaid onto the snowgrowth...I don't care that its way out there....I'm geeking out. 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The entire forum should be. Slightly less leery down in SW CT but the majority of us always hold our breath on them. But beggars can’t be choosers at this point. We’ll take any plowable snowstorm right now. 

We won't have any choice on the matter, West of the river is good in these, As long as the block weakens a bit in time to get it up here it should be good, Even something occluded at this point will be better then what we've been looking at over the past several days.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

More random boobie lows. What’s with that lately. 

Jugs are in. 

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, cleetussnow said:

What do we call a 2 stream phaser?  I figured Miller A cuz it launches from the Gulf.  Phaser sounds cool.

[Typhoon Tip]

seriously ...this is tucked [ enter head scratch emoji ]

either way ..that's situated position-wise and relative to all available parametrics for maximizing impact

 that is the b -word incarnate

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

seriously ...this is tucked [ enter head scratch emoji ]

Go back a few frames. It gets pretty tucked under LI. 

[Damage In Tolland]

That’s Dec 92 again! We may have something 

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Go back a few frames. It gets pretty tucked under LI. 

ah ..gotcha... 

well, yeah...  still, relative to parametric layout/synoptics, that's probably circumstantially the best location for "the punisher blizzard of 2025" - ironically

[cleetussnow]

Going to be a long week boys and girls.  Stock up on bread and milk and coffee cuz we gonna need it for the overnights. No sleep

[CoastalWx]

Gets warm to 495 at 925 for a time,  but that’s a clobbering for wrn CT to NRn ORH county.

[Typhoon Tip]

this is where the receding NAO becomes an index modal/archembaultian restoring storm.  

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Only 28 more runs to go 

[cleetussnow]

Someone on here think of an analog off the top of their heads?  

[George001]

Just now, cleetussnow said:

Someone on here think of an analog off the top of their heads?  

Feb 2021 and March 2017 are decent analogs

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, cleetussnow said:

Someone on here think of an analog off the top of their heads?  

Yes Dec 92

[weatherwiz]

I'm going to go buy a yard stick this week

[Typhoon Tip]

yeah...perhaps the scalar of the model is doing that at 925 but a-priori interpretation of that sucker in totality ...that would never do that at 925 - sorry. 

if that approaches get captured and has 516 dam height well closing off a drill bit over ri, the entire region is chalk dust pulverized crystals in 0 visibility, period

[H2Otown_WX]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yes Dec 92

How do you use December '92 for every analog?

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, cleetussnow said:

Someone on here think of an analog off the top of their heads?  

i think there was a storm in the early 1960s that wound up a 960 low and there was thundersnow with 70 mph wind gust - Jerry or Will might know

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yes Dec 92

No Dec ‘92…that storm was stalled for like 30+ hours, lol. 

[cleetussnow]

I heard Millennium storm?  

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

No Dec ‘92…that storm was stalled for like 30+ hours, lol. 

[78Blizzard]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Gets warm to 495 at 925 for a time,  but that’s a clobbering for wrn CT to NRn ORH county.

Yeah, looks like 3-4 hours of rain/taint verbatim around these parts, but still big snows before and after.

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

No Dec ‘92…that storm was stalled for like 30+ hours, lol. 

He’ll eventually be right for now now it is the analog for every big storm.

[H2Otown_WX]

17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That’s tucked but thankfully that block up north helps keep those 925s solid. Still tough for immediate coast at the height of it but just inland would slay. 

Not that it matters but don't you think the 700 mb track on the 18z is much less favorable than 12z? Looks like there would be dryslot issues for CT anyway.

[weathafella]

Just now, 78Blizzard said:

Yeah, looks like 3-4 hours of rain/taint verbatim around these parts, but still big snows before and after.

Yeah it’s a fairly short lived taint.  A few hours or less.