Jester January

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

[moneypitmike]

Even if models keep showing the possibility of an event next weekend, please please please don't create a thread before the Tues 12z  models.

[weatherwiz]

19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You don’t post funny stuff much but this is gold  

[CoastalWx]

That meme is great. I saw that for a different reason yesterday. 

[MJO812]

Gfs looking good

[dryslot]

18z GFS will be a bit north of the 12z run it appears for the 12th.

[Heisy]

Prob end more tucked than 12z


.

[weatherwiz]

This is going to elicit one hell of a storm holy shit

[moneypitmike]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

18z GFS will be a bit north of the 12z run it appears for the 12th.

Yup--north and west.  aka......umbrellas for some?

[dryslot]

Going to nuke, Going LBSW as well.

[cleetussnow]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

Prob end more tucked than 12z


.

I dunno. Doors open

 

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Going to nuke, Going LBSW as well.

Yeah. Next 3 frames….interesting

[weatherwiz]

That would be something...widespread blizzard with major coastal flooding. 

[dryslot]

What a bomb, Down to 969mb.

[MJO812]

[CoastalWx]

Tucked. 

[Typhoon Tip]

it actually kinda should be west with that ridge like that tho

[cleetussnow]

Miller As will do this.  Still good for 7.5 days out

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

it actually kinda should be west with that ridge like that tho

Yeah real tucked. 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Tucked. 

Explosive 

[Typhoon Tip]

it really wasn't west - y'all got fooled.   it was 3-6 hrs faster along the track and rate of development, both

maybe a tiny bit but it's really rather more so remarkable good continuity for this range.   wow to that point alone -

[rimetree]

I'll take a 967 near the benchmark 

[Typhoon Tip]

jesus, we're almost back to that crazy run from 4 days ago   holy smokes!

[weatherwiz]

Despite being a week out and as intense of a solution as this is, the good news is this isn't farfetched at all...it has merit. 

[dryslot]

Went from a clean whiff to some having P-Type issues.............

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

jesus, we're almost back to that crazy run from 4 days ago   holy smokes!

I was thinking that too…it was New Year’s Eve(Tue) that it showed that bomb. 

[dryslot]

I'm a bit leary of Miller A's though for up here.

[weathafella]

That’s 12+ for most of us and the 12+ is conservative.  Ray up to the lakes region over to PWM get 2 feet.

[ORH_wxman]

That’s tucked but thankfully that block up north helps keep those 925s solid. Still tough for immediate coast at the height of it but just inland would slay. 

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Miller As will do this.  Still good for 7.5 days out

not sure phasing/capture is a Miller A

it's like a Miller D ...seriously...  or C or something but it's not a gulf wave running up along the ec.  yeah, there's an instantiation of surface wave associated with tennessee valley convection/vestigial b-c axis, but the capture and bombing is really the take-off plateform and it's more of a "cloaked Miller B"  so to speak -

[H2Otown_WX]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

But to be fair, these were op run solutions beyond 10 days out. I mean, I can’t get mad at that.
what has been frustrating is that nothing seem to be materializing although perhaps we’ll have something in seven or eight days.

Yep, you were right. Two runs in a row now...I would like to see it on some other guidance too. I know the EPS improved so hopefully that continues tonight. Can't say I feel too great about being close to the jackpot zone at 7 days out but at least there seems like a good chance of something.