qg_omega Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 1 hour ago, Snowcrazed71 said: Never heard of this guy. Is he respectable ( not just a hyped weather enthusiasts )? He’s triple bun 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: MJO influence looks to fade. So after that pattern shakes up, I’m not sure how long it holds. Weeklies are voodoo so I’m not sure how much weight they hold. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve heard buckle up since 2023. Agreed. The forecasted pattern normally goes to crap after he tweets about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: Best month in decades Well local screw zone here. I understand it was better in other areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago Just now, Allsnow said: Agreed. The forecasted pattern normally goes to crap after he tweets about it My comment was more about the weeklies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 48 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Even Ruaaway Berg has 7-8” this month . AN for SW CT I have about that, maybe an inch more, I feel for those getting hosed, but this is one of the better Decembers and Christmases in a while in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago I’m at 3.8 womp womp Very little complaints here though. The holidays have been wintry. That’s all that matters in December to me. After Dec 25? Time to produce. Bigly. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago lol i guess all it takes is two crap winters for people to start trashing a respected met. god bless 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago also the upcoming pattern for most of early-mid Jan objectively looks very good. people can shit on it and PTSD reverse psychology their way out of it all they want but it doesn't change what pretty much every ensemble is showing 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 25 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’m at 3.8 womp womp Very little complaints here though. The holidays have been wintry. That’s all that matters in December to me. After Dec 25? Time to produce. Bigly. Need a two footer or a couple of 10-15 would do too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 16 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: also the upcoming pattern for most of early-mid Jan objectively looks very good. people can shit on it and PTSD reverse psychology their way out of it all they want but it doesn't change what pretty much every ensemble is showing gefs migrated though ... ...I mean I get what you mean with the 'ptsd' barb. that's funny by the way, and quite true. see, people don't realize that sardonic humor isn't conveyed very well, not in a toneless written media, so they only achieve sounding like trollic assholes .. i kind of get this image of a person typing with a smirk grin on their face, thinking they got the room laughing along with their grapes, when really everyone's going 'you're a douche' anyway, the gefs may come back.. there are some east asia/west pac arguments that combined with the mjo projections ... sort of make the gefs recent move come under scrutiny. the short version i'm personally more in the eps side for generalizing the pattern foot. we'll see as far as meat, the better hamburg is probably the 5/6th like we were saying the other day, but this one on the 2nd is still there. for what it is not worth ( which is a lot of not worthiness haha), the 00z euro skynet model is mix miller b with the 2nd, then a mix/snow for the 6th. who's with me!? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: gefs migrated though ... ...I mean I get what you mean with the 'ptsd' barb. that's funny by the way, and quite true. see, people don't realize that sardonic humor isn't conveyed very well, not in a toneless written media, so they only achieve sounding like trollic assholes .. i kind of get this image of a person typing with a smirk grin on their face, thinking they got the room laughing along with their grapes, when really everyone's going 'you're a douche' anyway, the gefs may come back.. there are some east asia/west pac arguments that combined with the mjo projections ... sort of make the gefs recent move come under scrutiny. the short version i'm personally more in the eps side for generalizing the pattern foot. we'll see as far as meat, the better hamburg is probably the 5/6th like we were saying the other day, but this one on the 2nd is still there. for what it is not worth ( which is a lot of not worthiness haha), the 00z euro skynet model is mix miller b with the 2nd, then a mix/snow for the 6th. who's with me!? the GEFS just made a pretty large move towards the EPS line of thinking with much lower heights in the GoA before the pattern gets going. leads to less crap getting stuck behind 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the GEFS just made a pretty large move towards the EPS line of thinking with much lower heights in the GoA before the pattern gets going. leads to less crap getting stuck behind So, you're saying less swamp ass? Seriously though, that's about as promising as you could ask for at this point 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Well local screw zone here. I understand it was better in other areas. It certainly didn’t seem that impressive here but somehow I managed to nickel and dime my way to 9” for the month. That is probably close to average for Greenfield but I’m not sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 40 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: lol i guess all it takes is two crap winters for people to start trashing a respected met. god bless TWO??????????????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 21 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the GEFS just made a pretty large move towards the EPS line of thinking with much lower heights in the GoA before the pattern gets going. leads to less crap getting stuck behind Getting to be a nice Davis Strait block. Too bad the airmass blows. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Getting to be a nice Davis Strait block. Too bad the airmass blows. GEFS looks like it's caving to the EPS. and yeah the airmass will suck until around the 3rd... first storm risk is Jan 4-5, then a larger one Jan 6-8 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Getting to be a nice Davis Strait block. Too bad the airmass blows. Man... Do you ever have anything optimistic to say..lol I know you feel burnt, but doesn't it get old staying in the Negative zone? It's bound to get better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago here are my thoughts I posted in the NYC forum: as we pass the 3rd or so, we probably do enter a pretty damn favorable pattern with -EPO/-NAO and a strong signal for N ATL confluence that will help press storms to the south alongside ample cold air. there's even a hint of sagginess off Baja California indicating a somewhat active STJ. overall, this presents the chance of phasing potential over the OH / MS valleys with 50/50 confluence in place now, the strength and character of the -NAO still needs to be worked out, as this will dictate the confluence... this isn't a shoe in and there is still time for things to change, of course. I would like to see this look persist towards NYE. it's relatively high confidence overall regardless of if you're pessimistic or optimistic, objectively, this should be our best shot at seeing a larger snowstorm in a while 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: here are my thoughts I posted in the NYC forum: as we pass the 3rd or so, we probably do enter a pretty damn favorable pattern with -EPO/-NAO and a strong signal for N ATL confluence that will help press storms to the south alongside ample cold air. there's even a hint of sagginess off Baja California indicating a somewhat active STJ. overall, this presents the chance of phasing potential over the OH / MS valleys with 50/50 confluence in place now, the strength and character of the -NAO still needs to be worked out, as this will dictate the confluence... this isn't a shoe in and there is still time for things to change, of course. I would like to see this look persist towards NYE. it's relatively high confidence overall regardless of if you're pessimistic or optimistic, objectively, this should be our best shot at seeing a larger snowstorm in a while Looks good but that has close to zero chance of verifying anywhere near that. You can bump this in 300 hrs 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Time to make AEMATT great again. I’ll trade you my 8” month of pennies for your eventual 30” HECS…because it’s coming and when it does, I’ll be skinning fur off the CT predator. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago Just now, qg_omega said: Looks good but that has close to zero chance of verifying anywhere near that. You can bump this in 300 hrs any reason why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said: Man... Do you ever have anything optimistic to say..lol I know you feel burnt, but doesn't it get old staying in the Negative zone? It's bound to get better. This recent string of posts is the best and most objective I've ever seen from him. It counters the overconfidence and unsupported optimism quite well. Snow is uncommon in the low elevation coastal plain. A lot has to go right to get it. Failure is the default outcome. Many people still haven't learned that there is more uncertainty in long range ensembles than they think. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 2 hours ago, dendrite said: Then this happens 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Actually BOS had a good event so some of the area is already great. Good is pretty far from great in this case. BOS will probably finish subnormal for the month but not by much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago Walking away with about 2” on the month spread out between 3 events. Not sure I can even call that mediocre. It wasn’t a good month here. We whiffed on several good chances, and about 5-10 miles NW of me got 4-5” on Friday while we got an inch here. Next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 19 minutes ago, weathafella said: Good is pretty far from great in this case. BOS will probably finish subnormal for the month but not by much. Great would have been if we all got a foot plus a few days ago but it is still good considering past years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago 1 hour ago, Snowcrazed71 said: Man... Do you ever have anything optimistic to say..lol I know you feel burnt, but doesn't it get old staying in the Negative zone? It's bound to get better. So you want me to lie? I tell it like it is. Maybe you missed my earlier posts about the pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago 40 minutes ago, weathafella said: Good is pretty far from great in this case. BOS will probably finish subnormal for the month but not by much. True but all relative. I still would be out there nude with a mistletoe over my weenie if I got what you got. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: here are my thoughts I posted in the NYC forum: as we pass the 3rd or so, we probably do enter a pretty damn favorable pattern with -EPO/-NAO and a strong signal for N ATL confluence that will help press storms to the south alongside ample cold air. there's even a hint of sagginess off Baja California indicating a somewhat active STJ. overall, this presents the chance of phasing potential over the OH / MS valleys with 50/50 confluence in place now, the strength and character of the -NAO still needs to be worked out, as this will dictate the confluence... this isn't a shoe in and there is still time for things to change, of course. I would like to see this look persist towards NYE. it's relatively high confidence overall regardless of if you're pessimistic or optimistic, objectively, this should be our best shot at seeing a larger snowstorm in a while Yep, just get deeper into first week of Jan. Not much more to say until the pieces come together as we get a week out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: So you want me to lie? I tell it like it is. Maybe you missed my earlier posts about the pattern. Yes. Tell em everything is awesome…they like that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now