brooklynwx99 Posted Saturday at 05:36 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:36 PM 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Might need that to stay positively tilted lol. the gyre over the N ATL helps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Saturday at 05:37 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:37 PM 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Consistency . Example .. someone who posts a lot of whiny posts continues to do that If that helps to understand Read models more and post less. It will do wonders. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Saturday at 05:37 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:37 PM 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I agree that I think it’s somewhat likely a larger storm occurs if you eject and phase that southern stream considering how meridional the northern steam is. Almost every single solution that phases it has been pretty huge going back a week when it was out at D14-15. yeah, this is all i'm trying to get folks to think about. right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Saturday at 05:37 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:37 PM Just now, brooklynwx99 said: the gyre over the N ATL helps Playing with fire there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Saturday at 05:39 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:39 PM Just now, CoastalWx said: Playing with fire there true. i'll take my chances with a decaying west based block and 50/50, that's usually what you need for a solid coastal. but yes, it's not airtight. pretty precarious setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Saturday at 05:40 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:40 PM 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: My initial sarcastic response to you wasn't helpful, either...I accept responsibility for that. We’re all on edge…we need a decent system to track. I wasn’t angry at anybody, just thought the complaining should be kept to the proper thread. I obviously don’t deny it’s sucked the last 2-3 years for all of us(and even more so in some areas). It sticks in my craw too…believe me. The trolls piss me off..I’ve blocked them so that it doesn’t elicit a reaction from me anymore, because I come here to see and learn what the pros(and knowledgeable hobbyists like yourself)are saying and thinking, and don’t need to see dozens of nonsense posts. That’s it in a nutshell. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Saturday at 05:40 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:40 PM In and up ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Saturday at 05:41 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:41 PM 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Appears as though Kev needed to lol ah we're all friends. it's all good. don't take myself that serously anyway, i wanna also point out that as Brook' and Sey Mour' and i were mentioning of the 00z run, it was missing a capture and much bigger ordeal by a very narrow margin. this one? doesn't miss. it's really just a point of emphasis run really. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted Saturday at 05:43 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:43 PM Its going to rain for some on the Euro, Yikes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted Saturday at 05:44 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:44 PM EURO also has a bomb…which is a win for us.. GFS no longer on its own.. EURO has it in the 960s in northern Gulf of Maine , get that to phase a bit earlier and it’s GFS like… beggars can’t be choosers hopefully this signal continues to hold and grow as the week goes on at least it’s at Day 7 not Day 10-11 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted Saturday at 05:46 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:46 PM 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Its going to rain for some on the Euro, Yikes. I'd rather take my chances with precip type vs confluence...especially at peak climo. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted Saturday at 05:46 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:46 PM Now thats a nuke. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Saturday at 05:47 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:47 PM Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said: EURO also has a bomb… 960s in northern Gulf of Maine , get that to phase a bit earlier and it’s GFS like… beggars can’t be choosers hopefully this signal continues to hold and grow as the week goes on at least it’s at Day 7 not Day 10-11 Well we have cross guidance support now for a deep system…deets to be determined of course. Euro looks like it kicked all that Ba Ha energy out and phased it in..,at least we have that now. I’ll take the chance on that rather than what we saw before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted Saturday at 05:47 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:47 PM Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'd rather take my chances with precip type vs conference...especially at peak climo. Me to then congratulating the flemish cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted Saturday at 05:47 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:47 PM Just now, dryslot said: Me to then congratulating the flemish cap. Meant confluence....yea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Saturday at 05:48 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:48 PM 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: ah we're all friends. it's all good. don't take myself that serously anyway, i wanna also point out that as Brook' and Sey Mour' and i were mentioning of the 00z run, it was missing a capture and much bigger ordeal by a very narrow margin. this one? doesn't miss. it's really just a point of emphasis run really. this window around the 9-11th has been very synoptically favorable for a while now, so I don't think the bombed OP runs are just folly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted Saturday at 05:48 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:48 PM 45 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Has Scooter done his last whine here? He is an open gaping wound, but he is our gaping wound… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted Saturday at 05:48 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:48 PM 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Well we have cross guidance support now for a deep system…deets to be determined of course. Euro looks like it kicked all that Ba Ha energy out and phased it in..,at least we have that now. I’ll take the chance on that rather than what we saw before. I would like to see consistency on that through the weekend before buying it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Saturday at 05:49 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:49 PM 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I think the 1/14-1/20 period will likely have a couple chances too. You’re relaxing the block a bit but it’s still there. LOL, ya think yeah that 19th thing's been showing up for awhile - and the telecon showing a new +d(pna) chance. i want to point out that there is a powerful mjo sequencing into the phase 1/2, and it's not going to take a long time getting there. by the 7th we're living the wave coherence strongly out of the n/s region of the rmm, and this is true with every guidance system. meanwhile, after an interlude of +wpo, the index in the d10-20 range appears slated to a hefty sag... those two factors are a compelling telecon convergence that the pacific will reload... i find it interesting that the operation gfs, unrelated to those aspect, is indirectly doing this kind of suggetion on or about the 20th .. it's not a deterministic forecast - yet - but in principle 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted Saturday at 05:50 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:50 PM 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Meant confluence....yea. Looks like the blocking relaxes as this makes the corner, Euro also didn't leave the S/W behind in Cabo either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Saturday at 05:51 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:51 PM Man it’s just threading the needle nowadays. Jesus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted Saturday at 05:52 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:52 PM I didn’t expect euro to play ball with southern steam. That’s a nice surprise. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted Saturday at 05:52 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:52 PM I like seeing both the gfs and Euro ejecting more energy. But there are a couple things telling me to pump the breaks here. This isn’t a classic setup, it’s too thread the needle for my liking. It’s unfortunate the 6th got squashed because the airmass was a lot better for that one. 1. The western ridge axis is too far west 2. The airmass is marginal, leaving less room for error in terms of a coastal hugger track. If there is a storm, ptype issues are a very real concern for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Saturday at 05:52 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:52 PM 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I would like to see consistency on that through the weekend before buying it. Oh for sure, absolutely. I just like that the energy in the southwest is being brought out by both major models(especially the ECMWF now). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted Saturday at 05:53 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:53 PM 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: this window around the 9-11th has been very synoptically favorable for a while now, so I don't think the bombed OP runs are just folly I don't think its folly either, Its just over the past several days it had the low moving ENE as the flow over the NE was west to east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Saturday at 05:54 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:54 PM 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I didn’t expect euro to play ball with southern steam. That’s a nice surprise. Yes, that’s a nice thing to see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted Saturday at 05:54 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:54 PM Just now, dryslot said: I don't think its folly either, Its just over the past several days it had the low moving ENE as the flow over the NE was west to east. Problem was we had no phasing with southern stream. Even partial ejection and phasing would’ve produced something but we always kept everything too sheared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Saturday at 05:55 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:55 PM 1 minute ago, dryslot said: I don't think its folly either, Its just over the past several days it had the low moving ENE as the flow over the NE was west to east. That would take care of both our snow issues in our respective areas for riding, if that thing came into like the gulf of Maine like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted Saturday at 05:55 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:55 PM 2 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted Saturday at 05:57 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:57 PM Just now, ORH_wxman said: Problem was we had no phasing with southern stream. Even partial ejection and phasing would’ve produced something but we always kept everything too sheared. It would be good to continue that theme going forward, That was cleaner look @H5 this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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