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Jester January


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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Loop H5, that’s what happens when you don’t bury the trough in the Baja.

 

But as you loop it, look how noisy the flow is.  There is a lot of risk here.

i think this window has a more mature pattern where the block isn't quite as oppressive... the 50/50 is in the spot it "should" be in, so the risk of completely squashing something is lower

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-6575200.thumb.png.cfe7a58905ce861ed11dc7bddc5b361b.png

 

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. Perfect solution at d7. Can always get more perfect as we get closer.

A positive thing I can add is the GFS as we have been saying has on and off showed how to get it done for days now. There’s more than 1 way to skin a cat to get a SECS.. obviously something historic like this is more thread the needle with the chaos at 500

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3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i think this window has a more mature pattern where the block isn't quite as oppressive... the 50/50 is in the spot it "should" be in, so the risk of completely squashing something is lower

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-6575200.thumb.png.cfe7a58905ce861ed11dc7bddc5b361b.png

 

Just not a fan how it warms up well ahead of it. Workable, but figures lol. 
 

Anyways all a fantasy at this point.

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2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Pattern supports a big storm. Why are you shocked ?

It’s great to see a good run…but it’s still a ways out I think is his point.  That could be just as easily gone on the 18z(although who knows with that 18z…might be global killer on that), so that’s the risk.  But as has been said…it ain’t total fantasy either.  I guess we track. 

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