Jester January

[qg_omega]

January ended when Prismshine started this thread.  No brainier 

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Day 4 straight of some snow falling here totaling 2 coatings that rapidly disappear. 

You have a days it snows fetish.

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well I guess that can both ways if that’s the case. So I used my leeway that we are all allowed, to say my part. I did not over step any bounds.   We can all say that about any of us if that is the case.    We all have our quirks and hang ups…and we all say our piece from time to time.  So that’s that. 
 

Anyway…congratulations on your new baby coming/or maybe here already. That’s truly fabulous. 

Thanks.

Just know that your part will breed tension...just like other talk we had about needing to respond  to someone lamenting doing poorly that you did fine. And tension is something you want avoid if genuinely concerned about preventing OT discourse and thread clutter.

[cleetussnow]

8 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

January ended when Prismshine started this thread.  No brainier 

This is something we can all get behind. I’m naming the Feb thread.  

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Thanks.

Just know that your part will breed tension...just like other talk we had about needing to respond  to someone lamenting doing poorly that you did fine. And tension is something you want avoid if genuinely concerned about preventing OT discourse and thread clutter.

This sounds like a conversation you have with your job 

[HoarfrostHubb]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You have a days it snows fetish.

Nah. Just an observation.  As valid as mentioning wind or fog or drizzle.   Which is all any of us have been getting. 
 

1 minute more of daylight and you get a boner.  

[cleetussnow]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

It would be amazing if we could start processing these complex equations even faster and start rolling out model data more quickly. It sucks having to wait 2.5-3.5 hours from initialization time  . 

The f’ing AI will troll us.  They can turn on you.  I saw a movie once.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Nah. Just an observation.  As valid as mentioning wind or fog or drizzle.   Which is all any of us have been getting. 
 

1 minute more of daylight and you get a boner.  

I’m with Dendrite. I enjoy daylight. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, cleetussnow said:

The f’ing AI will troll us.  They can turn on you.  I saw a movie once.

Just watched an absolutely wretched AI movie last night on Netflix. Subservience.   So bad.   
 

but Megan Fox…

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

The f’ing AI will troll us.  They can turn on you.  I saw a movie once.

“GFS…rerun the model again except this time with the correct initial conditions.”

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This sounds like a conversation you have with your job 

Certainly similarities...I interact with human beings here and on the job

[SnoSki14]

45 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

DC must love CC!!

All kidding aside, I'm sure it plays a role, but how much is very debatable. 

They barely get any snow anymore. I think Richmond has like an 8 year streak. 

But dead clock 

[WxWatcher007]

What in the hell is going on here?

[Torch Tiger]

Stein back in the swing with increasing longer days, increasing sun angle, and the drought conditions

[Go Kart Mozart]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

i wrote about this a month or so ago in a post assuredly buried in the oblivion scroll depths  ... it's not a trivial discussion content.

in an attempt at simple terminology (that will inevitably fail ... )  when we were in the "classical physics" days of meteorological education .. we were taught about the outer limits of deterministic weather modeling as being intrinsically limited because of spontaneity and chaos.  

every complex system in nature, to which atmospheric thermal and fluid mechanics supremely qualifies... will create it's one processes of perpetuation, or demise.   just about in equal proportion.  the only reason that it doesn't just eventually devolve into a state of quiescent inactive entropy is because their are governing dynamics consummately effecting the system.  

on Earth those primarily being ... the differential solar heating across a rotating sphere, then ...having said sphere be tilted, while revolving, adds an additional variance.    secondarily, you have the irregularities of the black body object in the thermal balancing, seas versus land,.   terrain feature variance like seas versus mountain ranges...

it doesn't take long to imagine that this is a messy proposition, and the models attempting to process a virtual state of reality, out in time, have to be able to do what they can't.  simply put.

they'll never, using 1's and 0's, be able to predict with excessive certainty ( definitely not 'absolute' certainty ) how all that messiness is going to manifest.   some process will emerge that cannot be foretold by 1's and 0's, no matter how fast, because time becomes the villain.  think of it this way ...  

A is a series of variables

B is a series of variables

  the interaction of A + B --> C    ...

  where C is a series of polynomials of that are both spontaneously created and/or spontaneously destroying, in time.   can you see where this is going?  it gets complex very fast, when we then consider that separate created variables, then go on to interact and create new distributions of C' ( prime ) ... then, this whole thing repeating in time, goes on to C'' ... C ''' ... to infinity really. 

quantum computing changes everything!   how?  because what quantum computing can do is, predict what all the possible solutions are, with far more proficiency in both speed and in 'knowing' what is destroyed vs created, and thus feedback on the proficiency out in time. so fast in fact that it is fair to suggest knowing all possible solutions instantly.  it just knows all the possible solutions to a problem, immediately, and doesn't have to plod through them 1 by 1 ( 1's and 0's computing), which cannot stop 'impossible' results from cluttering the processing out in time.

that cuts down the error of emergence bullshit model solutions, a quotient of which can never be totally avoided, particularly in the 1's and 0's method that is the present state of the technology/computing.  

one aspect i'm less certain of, however, is time.  does this work to predict what 'can possibly' emerge, and then does it pick the right one?   we used to discuss this in upper class fast ('forecasting analytics and statistics) ... it was always fun philosophy to consider that for every particle in free space one cannot know exactly where they are going to be and what state they are in, because at some point quantum uncertainty principle shuts the door on prediction, entirely.   i don't know if quantum computing, being that it actually IS the quantum realm where the uncertainty principle lurks, might somehow get around that electron double slit shit

 

Excellent response, and IMO, clearly presented.  Perchance, is this your field?

[dryslot]

Looks like the 12z GFS is going to bring the storm on the 12th up the coast this run.

[ineedsnow]

12z GFS 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Thanks.

Just know that your part will breed tension...just like other talk we had about needing to respond  to someone lamenting doing poorly that you did fine. And tension is something you want avoid if genuinely concerned about preventing OT discourse and thread clutter.

I think the problem is that nobody makes a peep when we get the cold and snow cheerleading posts.

If people were just being honest, there are a lot of people here who only want to hear the positives of winter weather.

 

[ineedsnow]

WOW!  we need this!

[dryslot]

Ha, Its going to be a nuke hugger.

[HoarfrostHubb]

lol.  What could possibly go wrong. 

[ineedsnow]

crushed!

[ineedsnow]

atleast its not hr384  close enough to be interested

[CoastalWx]

Dam. We take even though we taint 

[Go Kart Mozart]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

MJO rising?

 

lol, a few weeks ago I met some old college buddies in the East Village to watch Soft Parade, a Doors cover band.  Three guys our age (65) dressed and groomed to look like The Doors.  They looked absolutely ridiculous...but did a good job covering the music!

[cleetussnow]

Gfs looking good.  Sharper trough

[ineedsnow]

Holy shit just gets better and better each panel that comes out!

[dryslot]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Dam. We take even though we taint 

967mb.....lol

[Damage In Tolland]

Dec 92!

[dendrite]

PV/confluence relaxes just enough as that energy finally ejects out of the SW.