Jester January

[40/70 Benchmark]

39 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Then stop sounding like a 7 year old. Go cry in the whiner thread. That’s what it’s there for.  

Piss off.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Piss off.

You can certainly do the same. 

[Lava Rock]

Last I heard there wasn’t a lot going on up there either. 

There isn't. I was just asking Wolf if he was waiting to ride up there as you might need to go to Tug Hill or Canada if this dry stretch continues for weeks

Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

[rimetree]

23 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Anyone have table of seasonal Snowfall totals for a city/town in seacoast NH past 10 years?

This site is pretty useful...

https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/

I use monthly summarized data with these settings. Select a station (I typically use the Greenland coop).

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

You can certainly do the same. 

Maybe I will? Maybe I won't? Time will tell you? Perhaps we discover how many ways we can state the obvious without adding much value??

[wx2fish]

31 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Anyone have table of seasonal Snowfall totals for a city/town in seacoast NH past 10 years?

Really annoying and hard to find a coop site with complete data, but this one seems decent in Hampton

[Go Kart Mozart]

I hate to deviate from this morning's scholarly discourse, but shit, I just read an investment newsletter about quantum computing and the impact it is likely to have on weather modeling.  The author stated that the current movement with AI modeling is just a bridge that we will cross quickly, while quantum will change the ball game entirely.

In a sense, I like the fact the our forecasts are imperfect, that's what makes sites like this fun (along with the pissing matches).  If we had all the answers, there would be no need for this board.

Can any pros add commentary about the possible effects of quantum computing?

 

 

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maybe I will? Maybe I won't? Time will tell you? Perhaps we discover how many ways we can state the obvious without adding much value??

I’m gonna assume you’re being funny…hard to tell through text at times.  But when you say “we,”  I’ll assume for now you’re talking in general, cuz there hasn’t been a whole lot of value lately here from most..just a lot of bitching. 
 

But Last evening between Brooklyn, Cleetus and Tip there certainly was value in the conversation.  

[CoastalWx]

15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

full disclosure.. .i personally think we need to etch-n-sketch the whole hemisphere and start over -

this era was quintessentially designed to be perfectly just wrong enough and we've been fighting it .. blind to some fairly obvious negatives actually.  well ... i haven't been, but i don't sense that anyone else has spent the time to really look .  like the western ridge being too far west.  more i look at this, that's a silver bullet to the heart of big dawg enthusiasts.

a bit more complex, the flow being too fast - and by that ... i don't just mean the geostrophic balanced wind velocity, but the models are speeding s/w's movement through the field.    

What I’ve noticed is that the mean beyond 10 days out has not really shown the fold over ridge and trough by Baja. As we get closer, this features starts to show up. We’ve done well before with the ridge in that place, but that annoying Baja trough really prevents systems to develop in the Gulf and move northeast. 

[UnitedWx]

8 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

I hate to deviate from this morning's scholarly discourse, but shit, I just read an investment newsletter about quantum computing and the impact it is likely to have on weather modeling.  The author stated that the current movement with AI modeling is just a bridge that we will cross quickly, while quantum will change the ball game entirely.

In a sense, I like the fact the our forecasts are imperfect, that's what makes sites like this fun (along with the pissing matches).  If we had all the answers, there would be no need for this board.

Can any pros add commentary about the possible effects of quantum computing?

 

 

NOT an expert... but understanding some of what you question,  yes it is likely to improve. But, computations are only as good as the input data. What did someone just say about stating the obvious  We need better/ more input data for a better result 

[dendrite]

12 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

I hate to deviate from this morning's scholarly discourse

We have the uncanny ability in this subforum to lead the forum in posts, yet not really talk about anything. 

[weatherwiz]

10 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

I hate to deviate from this morning's scholarly discourse, but shit, I just read an investment newsletter about quantum computing and the impact it is likely to have on weather modeling.  The author stated that the current movement with AI modeling is just a bridge that we will cross quickly, while quantum will change the ball game entirely.

In a sense, I like the fact the our forecasts are imperfect, that's what makes sites like this fun (along with the pissing matches).  If we had all the answers, there would be no need for this board.

Can any pros add commentary about the possible effects of quantum computing?

 

 

It would be amazing if we could start processing these complex equations even faster and start rolling out model data more quickly. It sucks having to wait 2.5-3.5 hours from initialization time  . 

[MJO812]

AO rising

 

NAo rising

 

PNA dropping

 

 

 

Good signal for a big storm ?

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I’m gonna assume you’re being funny…hard to tell through text at times.  But when you say “we,”  I’ll assume for now you’re talking in general, cuz there hasn’t been a whole lot of value lately here from most..just a lot of bitching. 
 

But Last evening between Brooklyn, Cleetus and Tip there certainly was value in the conversation.  

Enough with the refereeing BS....you know damn well our threads are low key. Just let people vent frustration, dude. As far as value added, I do my best via links dropped...not going to cluttee the thread. I'm not trained like John, Scott or Will, but do my best.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Enough with the refereeing BS....you know damn well our threads are low key. Just let people vent frustration, dude. As far as value added, I do my best via links dropped...not going to cluttee the thread. I'm not trained like John, Scott or Will, but do my best.

Don’t forget trained like Kev 

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

AO rising

 

NAo rising

 

PNA dropping

 

 

 

Good signal for a big storm ?

MJO rising?

 

[SnoSki14]

28 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

full disclosure.. .i personally think we need to etch-n-sketch the whole hemisphere and start over -

this era was quintessentially designed to be perfectly just wrong enough and we've been fighting it .. blind to some fairly obvious negatives actually.  well ... i haven't been, but i don't sense that anyone else has spent the time to really look .  like the western ridge being too far west.  more i look at this, that's a silver bullet to the heart of big dawg enthusiasts.

a bit more complex, the flow being too fast - and by that ... i don't just mean the geostrophic balanced wind velocity, but the models are speeding s/w's movement through the field.    

Once again the monstrous elephant in the room aka CC is being ignored.

There's a reason why the northern stream has been so dominant, why the endless Nina pattern hasn't left, why there are too many cooks in the kitchen every winter that screw things up. 

Every new pattern is a dice roll and it's getting harder and harder to get a good result. 

[Prismshine Productions]

Could be worse, this forum as a Discord Server would result in people getting muted left and right...

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Enough with the refereeing BS....you know damn well our threads are low key. Just let people vent frustration, dude. As far as value added, I do my best via links dropped...not going to cluttee the thread. I'm not trained like John, Scott or Will, but do my best.

Who the fuck refereed?  We have a complaining thread..so go there to do that, that’s what was said. If you don’t like it, that’s too bad too.  Can we keep this thread for discussion..like its intended?   Everybody is feeling the frustration, I get it, I am too, but bring it to the appropriate thread.  

[Damage In Tolland]

 

[Typhoon Tip]

59 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

I hate to deviate from this morning's scholarly discourse, but shit, I just read an investment newsletter about quantum computing and the impact it is likely to have on weather modeling.  The author stated that the current movement with AI modeling is just a bridge that we will cross quickly, while quantum will change the ball game entirely.

In a sense, I like the fact the our forecasts are imperfect, that's what makes sites like this fun (along with the pissing matches).  If we had all the answers, there would be no need for this board.

Can any pros add commentary about the possible effects of quantum computing?

 

 

i wrote about this a month or so ago in a post assuredly buried in the oblivion scroll depths  ... it's not a trivial discussion content.

in an attempt at simple terminology (that will inevitably fail ... )  when we were in the "classical physics" days of meteorological education .. we were taught about the outer limits of deterministic weather modeling as being intrinsically limited because of spontaneity and chaos.  

every complex system in nature, to which atmospheric thermal and fluid mechanics supremely qualifies... will create it's one processes of perpetuation, or demise.   just about in equal proportion.  the only reason that it doesn't just eventually devolve into a state of quiescent inactive entropy is because their are governing dynamics consummately effecting the system.  

on Earth those primarily being ... the differential solar heating across a rotating sphere, then ...having said sphere be tilted, while revolving, adds an additional variance.    secondarily, you have the irregularities of the black body object in the thermal balancing, seas versus land,.   terrain feature variance like seas versus mountain ranges...

it doesn't take long to imagine that this is a messy proposition, and the models attempting to process a virtual state of reality, out in time, have to be able to do what they can't.  simply put.

they'll never, using 1's and 0's, be able to predict with excessive certainty ( definitely not 'absolute' certainty ) how all that messiness is going to manifest.   some process will emerge that cannot be foretold by 1's and 0's, no matter how fast, because time becomes the villain.  think of it this way ...  

A is a series of variables

B is a series of variables

  the interaction of A + B --> C    ...

  where C is a series of polynomials of that are both spontaneously created and/or spontaneously destroying, in time.   can you see where this is going?  it gets complex very fast, when we then consider that separate created variables, then go on to interact and create new distributions of C' ( prime ) ... then, this whole thing repeating in time, goes on to C'' ... C ''' ... to infinity really. 

quantum computing changes everything!   how?  because what quantum computing can do is, predict what all the possible solutions are, with far more proficiency in both speed and in 'knowing' what is destroyed vs created, and thus feedback on the proficiency out in time. so fast in fact that it is fair to suggest knowing all possible solutions instantly.  it just knows all the possible solutions to a problem, immediately, and doesn't have to plod through them 1 by 1 ( 1's and 0's computing), which cannot stop 'impossible' results from cluttering the processing out in time.

that cuts down the error of emergence bullshit model solutions, a quotient of which can never be totally avoided, particularly in the 1's and 0's method that is the present state of the technology/computing.  

one aspect i'm less certain of, however, is time.  does this work to predict what 'can possibly' emerge, and then does it pick the right one?   we used to discuss this in upper class fast ('forecasting analytics and statistics) ... it was always fun philosophy to consider that for every particle in free space one cannot know exactly where they are going to be and what state they are in, because at some point quantum uncertainty principle shuts the door on prediction, entirely.   i don't know if quantum computing, being that it actually IS the quantum realm where the uncertainty principle lurks, might somehow get around that electron double slit shit

 

[Typhoon Tip]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What I’ve noticed is that the mean beyond 10 days out has not really shown the fold over ridge and trough by Baja. As we get closer, this features starts to show up. We’ve done well before with the ridge in that place, but that annoying Baja trough really prevents systems to develop in the Gulf and move northeast. 

BOOM!  brilliant observation  ( ha, mainly because i've made this observation myself lol ) no but that's precisely true.  

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

 

37 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Who the fuck refereed?  We have a complaining thread..so go there to do that, that’s what was said. If you don’t like it, that’s too bad too.  Can we keep this thread for discussion..like its intended?   Everybody is feeling the frustration, I get it, I am too, but bring it to the appropriate thread.  

You are refereeing, right here. You are not a moderator and no one cares where you feel people should be posting. The people who are actually moderators are adept at reading the room and allow people the opportunity to vent liberally, especially when not much is going on weatherwise....just as the folks here are allowed to display positive emotion and inundate the thread with a crude slew of sexual innuendos when the weather behaves as we wish. 

Part of moderating is not simply being a dictator and admonishing people....it's about discerning when you can be a bit more liberal when it's warranted. This is what makes the New England forum so great. Just stop overstepping your bounds because it fosters tension as people tire of it.

[Typhoon Tip]

35 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Once again the monstrous elephant in the room aka CC is being ignored.

There's a reason why the northern stream has been so dominant, why the endless Nina pattern hasn't left, why there are too many cooks in the kitchen every winter that screw things up. 

Every new pattern is a dice roll and it's getting harder and harder to get a good result. 

preaching to the quire ...    i mean, i don't think you meant 'me' specifically in the bold above?   but just in case ...i'm not ignoring the outside-in issues.   i dared to mention the folding l/w stuff was merely related just the other day, and a lot of people don't like the direction of the discourse so ... i just assume a posture where i state the status of the system, and let others design their own interpretation - because this particular engagement has never succeeded in changing anyone's mind. 

they have to actually cut their f'ing arm off before they admit the blade is sharp, like everywhere in society these days.

no, but the problem with gw is/has always been that it is invisible.  it doesn't appeal to the biologically evolved method by which life "downloads information from the cosmos"  said method is the corporeal senses. they are quite analogous to ports on a cpu.   if the data is coming into the cpu is missing, the cpu is challenged to reconstruct a truer likeness of reality.   ...it's really a pretty remarkable achievement of evolution that a life -based brain on this planet is capable, at all, of anticipating consequences that haven't yet been measured. 

this to me is what really separates human kind from other species.  not the use of tools and speech and religion - which is likely an outmoded definition, anyway. i dunno. but the ability to do that is part and parcel of the large ability for innovation.   which ironically ... is the same force that put us into the 'hot water' to begin with.  so, the ability to anticipate and use that anticipation to constrain, is definitely not perfect.

if gw gave every male a testicle squeeze, and every female a boob punch, ever morning before they left the house... all of society ways and means would have flipped the script many decades ago

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Once again the monstrous elephant in the room aka CC is being ignored.

There's a reason why the northern stream has been so dominant, why the endless Nina pattern hasn't left, why there are too many cooks in the kitchen every winter that screw things up. 

Every new pattern is a dice roll and it's getting harder and harder to get a good result. 

DC must love CC!!

All kidding aside, I'm sure it plays a role, but how much is very debatable. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

There is absolutely nothing of note for the next few weeks, who cares where people vent frustration.

 

do we need to keep this thread pristine for people to discuss 28 vs 30 degrees?

[Snowcrazed71]

23 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Who the fuck refereed?  We have a complaining thread..so go there to do that, that’s what was said. If you don’t like it, that’s too bad too.  Can we keep this thread for discussion..like its intended?   Everybody is feeling the frustration, I get it, I am too, but bring it to the appropriate thread.  

I don't comment as much anymore because I get stomped on. Bunch of complainers here. I need to pull up there big boy pants. It is what it is and something will probably happen. It's just a matter of time and patience

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You are refereeing, right here. You are not a moderator and no one cares where you feel people should be posting. The people who are actually moderators are adept at reading the room and allow people the opportunity to vent liberally, especially when not much is going on weatherwise....just as the folks here are allowed to display positive emotion and inundate the thread with a crude slew of sexual innuendos when the weather behaves as we wish. 

Part of moderating is not simply being a dictator and admonishing people....it's about discerning when you can be a bit more liberal when it's warranted. This is what makes the New England forum so great. Just stop overstepping your bounds because it fosters tension as people tired of it.

Well I guess that can both ways if that’s the case. So I used my leeway that we are all allowed, to say my part. I did not over step any bounds.   We can all say that about any of us if that is the case.    We all have our quirks and hang ups…and we all say our piece from time to time.  So that’s that. 
 

Anyway…congratulations on your new baby coming/or maybe here already. That’s truly fabulous. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Day 4 straight of some snow falling here totaling 2 coatings that rapidly disappear. 

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I don't comment as much anymore because I get stomped on. Bunch of complainers here. I need to pull up there big boy pants. It is what it is and something will probably happen. It's just a matter of time and patience

Everybody is frustrated…I can understand that.  I have 10’s of thousands of dollars and then some tied up in wintertime equipment, so I get the frustration as much as, if not more than anybody.   Hopefully things can break our way at least a few times over the course of this up coming next 3 months.  I feel it will..but if not oh well.