Jester January

[Allsnow]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Because I enjoy winter and forecasting. It’s refreshing. 

Is there a Texas thread we can post in next week? 

[WinterWolf]

One of our buddies who has a house in Sinclair sent this yesterday afternoon. 

[cleetussnow]

I dunno.  Everyone’s ill humored this morning but the GFS 6z got a smitch better vs 0z for the 11th.  Week out.  Maybe we see more moves like that this weekend.  Didn’t see the euro -

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, cleetussnow said:

I dunno.  Everyone’s ill humored this morning but the GFS 6z got a smitch better vs 0z for the 11th.  Week out.  Maybe we see more moves like that this weekend.  Didn’t see the euro -

Do you have the snow map?

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Enough whining….we get it.  Yoy won’t be shut out forever.  You tried to tell everyone..especially in your area, that regression was gonna be a bitch. Lol, well it is. So be a man now, and get back on your horse, and let’s see what may come the next 10 days or so.  If we all get shut out, then that’s that.  And there’s a whole lot of winter to go either way. 

I don’t need you to be a teacher scolding a 7yr old. As someone who enjoys winter And literally has not seen an event over 3+” for 3 years and now with temps conducive since December 1 and has an inch and change to show for it….yeah it’s frustrating. So put me on ignore and deal with it. 

[cleetussnow]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Is there a Texas thread we can post in next week? 

Ha. My son goes back to school in Texas next week.  He wanted to see snow before he left.

meanwhile it might snow on him down there - he is on field training exercise (he’s ROTC) all next week…basically outside all week sleeping on the ground, no cover lol.  Careful what you wish for.

[cleetussnow]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Do you have the snow map?

Bruh

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t need you to be a teacher scolding a 7yr old. As someone who enjoys winter And literally has not seen an event over 3+” for 3 years and now with temps conducive since December 1 and has an inch and change to show for it….yeah it’s frustrating. So put me on ignore and deal with it. 

Then stop sounding like a 7 year old. Go cry in the whiner thread. That’s what it’s there for.  

[Damage In Tolland]

Fight, fight, fight, Blow to the face , gut punch, , Blow to the head ! Fight fight fight  . If you want blood,,, you got it !

[CoastalWx]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Then stop sounding like a 7 year old. Go cry in the whiner thread. That’s what it’s there for.  

Maybe I will, maybe I won’t? We just don’t know?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

WWGW

[Allsnow]

Just now, cleetussnow said:

Ha. My son goes back to school in Texas next week.  He wanted to see snow before he left.

meanwhile it might snow on him down there - he is on field training exercise (he’s ROTC) all next week…basically outside all week sleeping on the ground, no cover lol.  Careful what you wish for.

What an awesome and courageous opportunity! I wish him the best of luck in the future. 
 

Hopefully we can get the 11th to Work for our areas 

[cleetussnow]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

WWGW

Ummm. Winterwolf gonna wolf?

[cleetussnow]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

What an awesome and courageous opportunity! I wish him the best of luck in the future. 
 

Hopefully we can get the 11th to Work for our areas 

Appreciate you.  Funny I was down there 3 times last year and it hit 100 every time.  Snow was the furthest thing from my mind! Yet here we are.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Maybe I will, maybe I won’t? We just don’t know?

Ok then…lol.  
 

All of us are discouraged.  Let’s see What’s up with that 11th thing going forward. Maybe we can get something to go our way with that.  We need to catch a break. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Man, what a brawl 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Ummm. Winterwolf gonna wolf?

Winter wolf gone wild

[jbenedet]

29 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I think most of CNE would gladly take a SWFE pattern. Just keep ramming shortwaves into seasonable temps. 

No. That was last year and year before. That sucked in seacoast NH. Tons of white rain and mix.
 

Great for you guys. Very touch and go around here. 
 

You really have to add +3 to climo to get a good feel on where that pattern still does really well and that’s basically a line just north/west of ASH, DAW and PWM.

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Winter wolf gone wild

He is out of the den this morning 

[weatherwiz]

That is going to be some storm end of the week from northeast Texas through Arkansas, Tennessee, and the mid-Atlantic. Some areas going to get crushed...I bet the Smokey's pick up like 3 feet of snow. 

[Typhoon Tip]

yeah   so i suggest the 11th is alive. but, those original ( long extended) beauts of en masse sw eject with the timing of a Beethoven's 5th are unlikely to come back.  we are still 180+ hrs out from 00z but there are background arguments that i won't get into here because tl;dr makes it impractical     

the n/stream has been quasi stable suggesting more amplitude, if perhaps along a shallower corridor.   it'd offer a more middling or even nj model low scenario. 

i will add ... this +pna has been west biased in the operational runs, all of them about 90% of the model cycles. unfortunately, this idea of dropping sw heights and holding there and screwing up timing ... is really a good fit for said bias.  if somehow the wholesale relay of the mass fields between the eastern pac and western n/a were to modulate and bump the ridge/correct e.. that would be a plausible impetus to coax that sw feature to open up and become the s/stream piece for eastern shenanigans 

there may be other mechanism to get that thing to open up and enter the dance floor, but the super synoptic argument about idiosyncratic pna bum porking has definitely got merit, however

[jbenedet]

Anyone have table of seasonal Snowfall totals for a city/town in seacoast NH past 10 years?

[mreaves]

36 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Are you waiting to ride in the county?

Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk
 

Last I heard there wasn’t a lot going on up there either. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

25 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

One of our buddies who has a house in Sinclair sent this yesterday afternoon. 

Where is Sinclair?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

39 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I think most of CNE would gladly take a SWFE pattern. Just keep ramming shortwaves into seasonable temps. 

I would take my chances with that anytime any winter. 

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah   so i suggest the 11th is alive. but, those original ( long extended) beauts of en masse sw eject with the timing of a Beethoven's 5th are unlikely to come back.  we are still 180+ hrs out from 00z but there are background arguments that i won't get into here because tl;dr makes it impractical     

the n/stream has been quasi stable suggesting more amplitude, if perhaps along a shallower corridor.   it'd offer a more middling or even nj model low scenario. 

i will add ... this +pna has been west biased in the operational runs, all of them about 90% of the model cycles. unfortunately, this idea of dropping sw heights and holding there and screwing up timing ... is really a good fit for said bias.  if somehow the wholesale relay of the mass fields between the eastern pac and western n/a were to modulate and bump the ridge/correct e.. that would be a plausible impetus to coax that sw feature to open up and become the s/stream piece for eastern shenanigans 

there may be other mechanism to get that thing to open up and enter the dance floor, but the super synoptic argument about idiosyncratic pna bum porking is definitely got merit, however

EPS continues to show that annoying trough feature until the PNA drops. Maybe then we can get something. 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Where is Sinclair?

Top of Maine…near Fort Kent, Madawaska..Northern Aroostook. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

6 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I would take my chances with that anytime any winter. 

Yep.  Our bread and butter. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

56 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I think most of CNE would gladly take a SWFE pattern. Just keep ramming shortwaves into seasonable temps. 

I expect some of this in throughout Feb. 

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS continues to show that annoying trough feature until the PNA drops. Maybe then we can get something. 

full disclosure.. .i personally think we need to etch-n-sketch the whole hemisphere and start over -

this era was quintessentially designed to be perfectly just wrong enough and we've been fighting it .. blind to some fairly obvious negatives actually.  well ... i haven't been, but i don't sense that anyone else has spent the time to really look .  like the western ridge being too far west.  more i look at this, that's a silver bullet to the heart of big dawg enthusiasts.

a bit more complex, the flow being too fast - and by that ... i don't just mean the geostrophic balanced wind velocity, but the models are speeding s/w's movement through the field.