Jester January

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Is there anywhere else in the country having a snowy winter  this year or is this more widespread (country wide) phenomenon?

Ya..Philly is gonna do well come Monday. 

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Not able to look at models, I’m guessing from the posts over the past hour there nothing to be seen on the gfs.

The 1/6 thing seems gone, but the GFS is trying to run a wave from the SE around the 11th. It’s a weird 500mb depiction though.

[dryslot]

How much for Philly?

[Great Snow 1717]

50 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Way too much reliance on LR maps from OP models...crazy to see day 15 maps posted regularly....

..and that is made worse by the lack of pattern recognition and the refusal by some people to accept the impact that climate change is having...

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Which is very rare this time of the year there. Even in recent winters WaWa has been able to keep some natural snow at most times. 

I would think that outside of parts of Vermont and Northwestern Maine the woods are pretty thin everywhere.

[Kitz Craver]

14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Wiz originally said there were no shortwaves showing up in the flow on Saturday …so he changed his idea. Lol

No… go back, this was prior.. he mentioned how he didn’t like the look multiple times.

[Zeus]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

How much for Philly?

I'll let you know.

[Typhoon Tip]

it's a difference for the 10/11th period than it was a week ago.

(put that old idea to bed )

i've noticed the last 3 or 4 cycles of oper. versions have been sending more n/stream.  the southern stream just can't seem to be consistently - if at all - involved, but there's a tendency now that wouldn't take a lot more to be a more of a shallow latitude development, quick hitting event out of that mess.   nj model low of sorts

[dryslot]

I can't wait for my IVT on the 12th.

[klw]

13 hours ago, Boston Bulldog said:

It was dumping on 89 in Montpelier around 7pm. Route 2 was completely snow covered with a few inches as well. This portion of the event was definitely poorly forecast, BTV only had 20-30% PoPs south of 89 for this evening. HRRR had a little hint of some disorganized banding showing up, but guidance totally whiffed on the subtle boundary and upper level energy injection that created the zonally oriented band that extended beyond the mountains.

I woke to 3" new on the board this morning.  Almost all was a surprise as we maybe had half an inch when I put the dogs out to clear skies around 7.

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

it's a difference for the 10/11th period than it was a week ago.

(put that old idea to bed )

i've noticed the 3 or 4 cycles of oper. versions have been sending more n/stream down.  the southern stream just can't seem to be consistently - if at all - involved, but there's a tendency now that wouldn't take a lot more to be a more shallow latitude quick hitting event out of that mess.   nj model low of sorts

Why does the GFS try to hang back so much here? That seems odd to me? 

[ineedsnow]

the cold sucks if there's no snow or storms around.. atleast when there's snow on the ground or its warmer people come out.. don't get me wrong though I hate hot and humid days 

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

I can't wait for my IVT on the 12th.

Happy to take any snow you’re too good for in this poverty pattern. 

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

No… go back, this was prior.. he mentioned how he didn’t like the look multiple times.

That's it. It's one thing to see a good looking pattern in place, but it's a whole other ball game when it comes to how the pieces within the pattern are moving and quite frankly, it's not the pattern which produces weather, it's how the pieces are moving, evolving, and interacting which produce the weather. 

[Snowstorms]

10 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Is there anywhere else in the country having a snowy winter  this year or is this deficit a more widespread (country wide) phenomenon?

Except the snow belt regions in the great lakes, it's been bad everywhere. After Tuesday the mid atlantic are about to be ahead of 95% of the people living in the great lakes region. 

[Prismshine Productions]

Well... At least this run wasn't a CGSO...

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[dryslot]

Looking at the 12z GFS, There has to be a few members that are NW of the low track as it hangs back a lot of moisture over NNE this run around the 12th.

[WinterSnow]

Saw a headline about DC getting a 'snowstorm'. Meanwhile, haven't seen any snow I could call a "storm" in CT yet, and no snow at all in the forecast.

Technically December was snowy, but each event was minor.

[Lava Rock]

3 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Except the snow belt regions in the great lakes, it's been bad everywhere. After Tuesday the mid atlantic are about to be ahead of 95% of the people living in the great lakes region. 

Tahoe and other resorts out West not doing well? I know friends from Telluride said it's been a slow start.

[iceman1]

27 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

I agree with you that people seeing their backyard white increase ski visits, but Vermont is loaded with snow right now and with social media, I think seeing a backyard of snow has less influence then it used to.  People see the powder shots from their favorite ski resort and go regardless of their backyard.

i have been skiing for 50 years don't like manmade snow never did.

as for powder manmade snow what? never seen it everything is loose granular 

[Typhoon Tip]

18 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Why does the GFS try to hang back so much here? That seems odd to me? 

yeah looping that/cinema makes that more obvious why that's taking place.  at least for me ... not sure what the other mets think of this, but the western ridge aspect of this particular flavor of +pna is too far west. 

what's happening in the nearer term ...there's an eject out of the ne pacific that abruptly turns into an inside slider ... turning s down cali.  those then do one of two things:   

a, they then turn east across the sw and then parent low pressure genesis ~ from colorado to texas ...which depending on the n/stream or not, will morph onto do whatever it does over the eastern continent.

b, they then stall and/or shear out the sw; the subsequent environment down stream does not realize or as much low pressure genesis. 

what determines a or b comes down to what happens with the western ridge once the inside slider turns back e over the sw.  if the ridge starts to giga toward the east, it will eject that sw aspect/wave space is conserved and east it all comes   if the ridge does not bump and or retros even further... it doesn't.

what you're seeing there is some form of b

[Snowstorms]

7 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Tahoe and other resorts out West not doing well? I know friends from Telluride said it's been a slow start.

https://www.onthesnow.com/lake-tahoe/skireport 

49% of normal so far and next 10 days look dry too. Whistler is doing bit better but looks to dry out too.  

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah looping that/cinema makes that more obvious why that's taking place.  at least for me ... not sure what the other mets think of this, but the western ridge aspect of this particular flavor of +pna is too far west. 

what's happening in the nearer term ...there's an eject out of the ne pacific that abruptly turns into an inside slider.  those can then do one of two things:   

a, they then turn west across the s/w and then assist in generating low pressure from colorado to texas ...which depending on the n/stream or not, will morph onto do whatever it does over the eastern continent.

b, they then stall and/or shear out the s/w; the subsequent environment down stream does not realize or as much, low pressure genesis. 

what determines a or b comes down to what happens with the western ridge once the inside slider turns into the s/w.  if the ridge starts to giga toward the east, it will eject that sw aspect/wave space is conserved and east it all comes   if the ridge does not bump and or retros even further... it doesn't

That’s really helpful, thanks.

[mreaves]

35 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

Vermont is loaded with snow right now a

Well, some of Vermont has some snow. The ski areas along the spine are ok but you don’t have to move far to drop significantly. 

[cut]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Besides figure skating , what otter winter activities are there with no snow ? 

Pond hockey is one of the most fun things to do in winter - besides ski or snowmobile. Nothing like a group of 10 or 12 or more, hot bevies - cold bevies, and a fire.

[Typhoon Tip]

this'll roll eyes  haha    

 17-20th looks interesting

[Kitz Craver]

GFS tries to bring the coastal back for 1/11. Kinda weak and scrapes along SNE with the northern edge of the precip shield 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Kitz Craver said:

GFS tries to bring the coastal back for 1/11. Kinda weak and scrapes along SNE with the northern edge of the precip shield 

That is a very low confidence period right now, largely due to the immense spread with how the SW energy is being handled. There is going to be lots of influences as to how any system within the deep southern Plains develops and evolves. We really may not have a clear idea on this until probably Tuesday.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Kitz Craver said:

GFS tries to bring the coastal back for 1/11. Kinda weak and scrapes along SNE with the northern edge of the precip shield 

It’s been toying with the idea of something larger for a few runs now. I’d want to see some cross-guidance appeal before taking it more seriously. 

[Prismshine Productions]

this'll roll eyes  haha    
 17-20th looks interesting

Don't to it Tip

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