Jester January

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I mean with no snow in the area . Most folks ski when they see snow out back . 

Having snow in YBY def increases ski traffic but there’s a ton of skiers who go regardless. I learned to ski in the early 1990s when brown grass in SNE was the norm. Even up in NNE it was bad but the mountains usually had enough snow and there were plenty of crowds during awful years like 1990-91 or 1991-92. 
 

If you got lots of days that stayed below freezing with no rain, then it was usually solid. As long as it wasn’t like 0F with wind. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Besides figure skating , what otter winter activities are there with no snow ? 

Men in dark and cold cabins riding together…

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

This is probably true, less SNE heads get out and go up north when it’s brown, it’s just out of mind kinda. 

I don’t feel that’s true at all. We have a ski area here in town(a good one for SNE), it’ll be jammed.  They’ll blow a ton of snow and they’ll crush it.  This will be perfect for that. 

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Having snow in YBY def increases ski traffic but there’s a ton of skiers who go regardless. I learned to ski in the early 1990s when brown grass in SNE was the norm. Even up in NNE it was bad but the mountains usually had enough snow and there were plenty of crowds during awful years like 1990-91 or 1991-92. 
 

If you got lots of days that stayed below freezing with no rain, then it was usually solid. As long as it wasn’t like 0F with wind. 

Some of those years it was like skiing on ball bearings as it had rained and then gotten cold.  Snowmaking wasn't what it is now either...

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Anything is possible..but I wouldn’t hold my breath on Jan 3rd. 

I wouldn’t hold my breath for a wintry February either (not saying you necessarily are). I never expected to bat 1.000 here but it seems ominous that this fabled wonderful pattern could very well keep our average of significant region wide events at 0.000.

Every year we get these beautiful 500h depictions and play the mental gymnastics to convince ourselves that this time it’ll be different from all the other failures, and it never is. Last month and your near normal snowfall notwithstanding, it’s been all or nothing for years around here and it’s been nothing more often than not, especially from a regional perspective.

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I wouldn’t hold my breath for a wintry February either (not saying you necessarily are). I never expected to bat 1.000 here but it seems ominous that this fabled wonderful pattern could very well keep our average of significant region wide events at 0.000.

Every year we get these beautiful 500h depictions and play the mental gymnastics to convince ourselves that this time it’ll be different from all the other failures, and it never is. Last month and your near normal snowfall notwithstanding, it’s been all or nothing for years around here and it’s been nothing more often than not, especially from a regional perspective.

Way too much reliance on LR maps from OP models...crazy to see day 15 maps posted regularly....

[kdxken]

You know I was thinking, this all started after the Pope made his first ever positive post. Betcha it's some kind of Catholic Hex.

[bristolri_wx]

Jeez, if this forum existed during the 1980's winters, most of the posters would not have made it through to adulthood thanks to an outbreak of toaster baths. Let's mourn a terrible winter on March 21th rather than on January 3rd.
 

[kdxken]

Huh? Who would have ever thought.

[Typhoon Tip]

i think we've discussed this in the past.   either way ... the big -nao 2010 season that brought 'snowmeggeddon' to the d.c. - phl corridor was a lesson in not hoping for the -nao, when/if not learning about it's idiosyncrasies and circumstantial devil -

not saying this is the whole season but, looking at that nam solution at 12z... d.c. would have probably 2 to 3X's my seasonal total by a 108 hours.

i'm sitting at a paltry 4.75" here...  granted i'm in a bit of a hole relative to other regions... but still -

[Kitz Craver]

9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I don’t feel that’s true at all. We have a ski area here in town(a good one for SNE), it’ll be jammed.  They’ll blow a ton of snow and they’ll crush it.  This will be perfect for that. 

Well yeah, I meant for Southern New England heads to make the trek up North to the major mts in VT, NH, ME. The small CT hills are always a shit show no matter what usually. You know little kids learning, local high schooler’s, etc.

[WxWatcher007]

8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Way too much reliance on LR maps from OP models...crazy to see day 15 maps posted regularly....

I mean I’m not bothered by people talking about what ensembles say at range. They are legitimately useful.

But I think there is a little suspension of disbelief or positivity bias that happens in winter when we talk about snow chances specifically. You don’t even see it when we talk about cold and especially not with ice lol.

No slight at anyone. We’re basically all here for good snowy winters. Maybe it’s a human nature thing. 

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

Jeez, if this forum existed during the 1980's winters, most of the posters would not have made it through to adulthood thanks to an outbreak of toaster baths. Let's mourn a terrible winter on March 21th rather than on January 3rd.
 

been over this concept 'till the cows came home, too but ... mm, it's probably psycho-babbledee more dire now because there was some pretty big snow years since 2000 ... that's gonna be a pretty big distorting influence.   it may very well be that this is a part of cc and the new paradigm moving forward is consummate ass banging winters that cause a diaspora of civility by mid century  ( haha )... but, that doesn't account for the fact that big snow seasons will taint perceptions and send the entitlement higher - that's where we are

the main cause of all disappointment in life is the failure to realize expectation.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

i think we've discussed this in the past.   either way ... the big -nao 2010 season that brought 'snowmeggeddon' to the d.c. - phl corridor was a lesson in not hoping for the -nao, if not learning about it is happening ( it's idiosyncrasies and circumstantial devil - )

not saying this is the whole season but, looking at that nam solution at 12z... d.c. would have probably 2 to 3X's my seasonal total by a 108 hours.

i'm sitting at a paltry 4.75" here...  granted i'm in a bit of a hole relative to other regions... but still -

Well the very next year we crushed it with a ridiculous NAO block in late December 2010 and first half of January 2011. Granted, we spent most of that time with a -PNA (but not the flavor where we have a perpetual trough down into Baja Ca…more traditional -PNA instead). 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

i think we've discussed this in the past.   either way ... the big -nao 2010 season that brought 'snowmeggeddon' to the d.c. - phl corridor was a lesson in not hoping for the -nao, if not learning about it is happening ( it's idiosyncrasies and circumstantial devil - )

not saying this is the whole season but, looking at that nam solution at 12z... d.c. would have probably 2 to 3X's my seasonal total by a 108 hours.

i'm sitting at a paltry 4.75" here...  granted i'm in a bit of a hole relative to other regions... but still -

A big 1” and Change here.  Been the epicenter of your cosmic dildo last 3 winters. Haven’t had a snowfall much greater than 3” since 2022. Chew on that.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Well the very next year we crushed it with a ridiculous NAO block in late December 2010 and first half of January 2011. Granted, we spent most of that time with a -PNA (but not the flavor where we have a perpetual trough down into Baja Ca…more traditional -PNA instead). 

yeah,  "it's idiosyncrasies and circumstantial devil -"

folks should learn about that quoted string -   ...

even this time, i remember us discussing/wondering about suppression. 

[WxWatcher007]

Maybe? Not to derail the thread but I’m not sure that for most the expectation is historical storm/season or bust.

Climo is kind of objective. I average 45-50 a year and I can’t crack 15” without luck. That’s objectively bad. It’s made worse when we get these gorgeous 500mb looks that we exhaustively talk about (which we should—unnecessary pessimism is just as bad as gaslighting optimism) but then bring buffalo a superstorm or fade in time for us to enjoy cutters or some other fail mode. 

If we had a normal winter, I don’t think anyone reasonable would complain. 

[Kitz Craver]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah,  "it's idiosyncrasies and circumstantial devil -"

folks should learn about that quoted string -   ...

even this time, i remember us discussing/wondering about suppression. 

Yup some mentioned suppression and others like Wiz(hats off) mentioned his dislike of the pattern wrt the chaotic flow which is also a contributing factor to the suck.

[Patrick-02540]

10 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Huh? Who would have ever thought.

Having a knack for stating the obvious isn't always a bad thing, but Epstein's post was downright bizarre. Other than your property, MOST trees ARE taken down by wind events. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Maybe? Not to derail the thread but I’m not sure that for most the expectation is historical storm/season or bust.

Climo is kind of objective. I average 45-50 a year and I can’t crack 15” without luck. That’s objectively bad. It’s made worse when we get these gorgeous 500mb looks that we exhaustively talk about (which we should—unnecessary pessimism is just as bad as gaslighting optimism) but then bring buffalo a superstorm or fade in time for us to enjoy cutters or some other fail mode. 

If we had a normal winter, I don’t think anyone reasonable would complain. 

 Nope. Except Brett.

[Typhoon Tip]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

A big 1” and Change here.  Been the epicenter of your cosmic dildo last 3 winters. Haven’t had a snowfall much greater than 3” since 2022. Chew on that.

from my pad over to Ray's ... we're in kind of a secondary screw zone.  like the dildo's target butt was occupied so we were the next choice.  lol 

not sure about RAY  ...just going by my memory of his bitching.  he can chime in on that...   anyway, some of those years, like 2020 ... others have a bit of a bias ( i think ) perception that it was passable.  they might have just experienced better. perhaps different standards.  i did not make season normal that year here.   that's a requirement for me, otherwise it's all failure - just a matter of how more or less egregious it was.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Yup some mentioned suppression and others like Wiz(hats off) mentioned his dislike of the pattern wrt the chaotic flow which is also a contributing factor to the suck.

one thing i've noticed also is that we are collectively ( as a group of return engagers in a medium that we probably should all think about moving away from and getting involved with an actual life that will leave a meaningful legacy behind  eh hm...) dropping the ball on some very basic synoptic stuff - like 101 stuff that doesn't require a met degree or even a very skilled hobbyist/amateur. 

like the western ridge... no one is talked about that that i can recall lately.  when not completely wrong it's been significantly idiosyncratic in every run i've seen spanning the last 7 days.  low bar stuff like that...then, when the other shoe falls on an ugly model run there's kind of only melancholy.   a little better leading prep, between that and the nao nuances ...etc...etc...  it might protect those that are powerless from letting this shit affect them on a personal level - 

 

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 Nope. Except Brett.

I mean if we’re being honest in SNE at least, even if we fell short of climo by 10-20% we’d probably take that as a win and have more hope for the next winter. 

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I mean if we’re being honest in SNE at least, even if we fell short of climo by 10-20% we’d probably take that as a win and have more hope for the next winter. 

Yeah I wouldn’t bitch at all if we got a 55” winter. 
 

Excessively going below climo becomes grating after just a couple seasons. We’ve all endured horrific seasons on here in the past. 2015-16, 2011-12 and 2006-07 (for a lot of SNE. Interior did make a decent comeback)….and for those of us who go back far enough, 2001-02….but we always rebounded with a good winter quickly if not the very next year. 

[bwt3650]

48 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I mean with no snow in the area . Most folks ski when they see snow out back . 

I agree with you that people seeing their backyard white increase ski visits, but Vermont is loaded with snow right now and with social media, I think seeing a backyard of snow has less influence then it used to.  People see the powder shots from their favorite ski resort and go regardless of their backyard.

[WinterWolf]

21 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Yup some mentioned suppression and others like Wiz(hats off) mentioned his dislike of the pattern wrt the chaotic flow which is also a contributing factor to the suck.

Wiz originally said there were no shortwaves showing up in the flow on Saturday …so he changed his idea. Lol

[moneypitmike]

Not able to look at models, I’m guessing from the posts over the past hour there nothing to be seen on the gfs.

[powderfreak]

8 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

I agree with you that people seeing their backyard white increase ski visits, but Vermont is loaded with snow right now and with social media, I think seeing a backyard of snow has less influence then it used to.  People see the powder shots from their favorite ski resort and go regardless of their backyard.

Social media has changed it 100%.  People now actually know what’s going on in places that aren’t their backyard.  In the 1990s, it was phone, newspaper, TV and radio.  No one really knew what was going on.

[Cyclone-68]

Is there anywhere else in the country having a snowy winter  this year or is this deficit a more widespread (country wide) phenomenon?

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Wiz originally said there were no shortwaves showing up in the flow on Saturday …so he changed his idea. Lol

I was mostly refereeing last week and the first week of January, which at that point, was really how far out the OP models were going. I know I'll always get chastised for saying this and I don't care but the charade of getting excited because of pretty blue colors in the East has faded with me. It's one thing to look at the pattern but you also have to see what is going on within that pattern and from what I was looking at - I was not excited. 

I'll keep saying this until the day I get banned or suspended or whatever, but if you keep saying things look good 1,000 times and nothing happens, at some point one needs to say to themselves, "maybe this isn't as good as originally thought". It seems like we're stuck on ideologies from 20-30 years ago. With each passing day and weather phenomena our dataset grows and continues to grow. There was a point in time where you could argue weak La Nina's (or even certain ENSO phase/strength) correlated well with good winters here...but as this dataset has continued to expand, correlations which were stronger 20 years ago aren't as strong now. 

We have enough of a database now to where we can probability better identify and differentiate these types of patterns and separate what is truly good versus what isn't good. 

I know for myself at least, I got tired of telling myself (and friends who asked) yeah this upcoming pattern looks good for snow and then nothing happens. Not sure how anyone else feels about that but you can only say something over and over without result before having to go back to the drawing board.