Jester January

[H2Otown_WX]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Another bump on gfs 5 runs in a row , 500 keeps on trending better which is leading to this …

Honestly I thought we'd be like 2-4" for southern CT looking at 500 mb. I guess the confluence is still too much, hell of a SW-NE gradient.

[Patrick-02540]

More trending in the right direction on GFS.  

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Another bump on gfs 5 runs in a row , 500 keeps on trending better which is leading to this …

Can’t say I’m surprised…everything so far this season has trended right into go time. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

4 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Honestly I thought we'd be like 2-4" for southern CT looking at 500 mb. I guess the confluence is still too much, hell of a SW-NE gradient.

It’s still like 4 days away .. if we have another day of trends like today on gfs and euro joins we could be looking at winter storm watches Saturday .. will Dr no strike again? 

[ineedsnow]

few more runs and this will get most of SNE with something 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

It’s still like 4 days away .. if we have another day of trends we could be looking at winter storm watches Saturday 

Ya was saying that earlier, this isn’t even on top of us yet, so there’s still ample time for this to creep north.  

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

It’s still like 4 days away .. if we have another day of trends like today on gfs and euro joins we could be looking at winter storm watches Saturday .. will Dr no strike again? 

Dr no isn’t even close to the superior model it once was…doesn’t carry the weight it used to imo.  Thing shits the bed more than ever. 

[H2Otown_WX]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya was saying that earlier, this isn’t even on top of us yet, so there’s still ample time for this to creep north.  

I'll have to hand it to you and DIT if it does

[H2Otown_WX]

Idk, can we trust the GFS? There was a time we would just throw it in the trash but it is much improved. Mid Atlantic weenies hanging their hats on the Canadian lol...definitely would like to see the Euro make a big move in 90 minutes.

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Idk, can we trust the GFS? There was a time we would just throw it in the trash but it is much improved. Mid Atlantic weenies hanging their hats on the Canadian lol...definitely would like to see the Euro make a big move in 90 minutes.

I've seen the Canadian sometimes nail these nasty confluence events before.  We've seen a few storms where its causing cirrus sniffing everywhere and the GFS/NAM/Euro were still hits and the Canadian was right.  I wonder if it might be due to it having better data in Canada near the Maritimes in those types of setups.  Its certainly one reason I'd be a bit worried it was the most south so far at 00Z.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

I'll have to hand it to you and DIT if it does

Well if nothing else, I think this trend is showing that we can’t just completely shut doors on threats at 4-6 days out, as happens here too easily many times.  
 

Yes sir..the GFS has improved a lot over the last few years.  It’s always confidence inspiring when the two big boys agree as we close in for sure.  So ya, it would be great to see a shift on the Euro too, but if it doesn’t it’s not a death signal anymore, especially at 4 days out.  

[ineedsnow]

GFS trying for next weekend

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

GFS trying for next weekend

The Gulf low coming back…

[ineedsnow]

0z ukie way south

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

0z ukie way south

It’s bombed. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/01/cold-dry-first-half-of-january-likely.html

[40/70 Benchmark]

34 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

GFS trying for next weekend

Has and still looks like shit.

[40/70 Benchmark]

50 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It’s bombed. 

It was playing beer pong with the Euro.

Seriousoy guys...let it go-

[weathafella]

3 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

I want the rain and clouds in the summer 

You and Mitch.  Sick muthufukkas but we love you.

[moneypitmike]

Nothing says boring quite like a forecast that is made up entirely of one-line entries.

 

[CoastalWx]

5 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Well if nothing else, I think this trend is showing that we can’t just completely shut doors on threats at 4-6 days out, as happens here too easily many times.  
 

Yes sir..the GFS has improved a lot over the last few years.  It’s always confidence inspiring when the two big boys agree as we close in for sure.  So ya, it would be great to see a shift on the Euro too, but if it doesn’t it’s not a death signal anymore, especially at 4 days out.  

Euro has gotten its mojo back. 6z gfs is south and euro hasn’t budged. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Dr. No alive and well!

[Kitz Craver]

I’m not seeing the trend. Still looks like shit. Lol

[H2Otown_WX]

This blows...-NAO screwing us out of snow Monday and a torch after the 10th.

EDIT: Nvm. Stupid -EPO is giving us useless cold.

[H2Otown_WX]

28 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Nothing says boring quite like a forecast that is made up entirely of one-line entries.

 

[moneypitmike]

8 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

If that were during the summer, we'd all be pumped.  Winter?  Not so much.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Dr. No alive and well!

Now every model trending to it 

[Allsnow]

52 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

EPS snow mean has literally nothing of interest in the northeast 

better odds in southern tx 

[MJO812]

21 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

EPS snow mean has literally nothing of interest in the northeast 

better odds in southern tx 

The great pattern for us is kicking us in the ass again.

[Kitz Craver]

Close the shades. Absolutely nothing happening for some time.