Jester January

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Click your heals Dorothy.

A trace to start Jan the Odouls of snow. . Web Cam on the upper deck

[Go Kart Mozart]

21 minutes ago, Layman said:

It's even simpler than that.  May I introduce "poisonous fog":  https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-14239417/thick-fog-mystery-chemical-smell-reports.html 

Released by drones from the Iranian mother ship, no doubt.

[codfishsnowman]

None of this is shocking but the cold, at least through Thursday doesn't look that out of the ordinary for mid winter. Difference being were not used to it. But all bodies of fresh water will freeze solid all the way to the south coast and the weather will be fine for winter sports on the ice. Ski resorts will be able to make plenty of snow. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Trend continues since 00z yesterday.  The real accumulating snow has trended north several runs in a row here’s a loop of last 4 cycles.  Warming snows to central Jersey now.. 

on a side note this has a chance to drop 8-16” of snow from NW Kansas to the East Coast over a 1300 mile swath 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Trend continues since 00z yesterday.  The real accumulating snow has trended north several runs in a row here’s a loop of last 4 cycles.  Warming snows to central Jersey now.. 

on a side note this has a chance to drop 8-16” of snow from NW Kansas to the East Coast over a 1300 mile swath 

Still light years away from being anything more than flurries for SNe though.

need another 300 miles, at 100 hours 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Trend continues since 00z yesterday.  The real accumulating snow has trended north several runs in a row here’s a loop of last 4 cycles.  Warming snows to central Jersey now.. 

on a side note this has a chance to drop 8-16” of snow from NW Kansas to the East Coast over a 1300 mile swath 

1-3” to the pike at a minimum is becoming increasingly likely . It’s the north trend 

[Snowcrazed71]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Trend continues since 00z yesterday.  The real accumulating snow has trended north several runs in a row here’s a loop of last 4 cycles.  Warming snows to central Jersey now.. 

on a side note this has a chance to drop 8-16” of snow from NW Kansas to the East Coast over a 1300 mile swath 

What's to say that this trend isn't going to continue. We still have Friday, Saturday, Sunday into Monday for this trend to continue. This has trended North in four cycles. We can basically almost triple the amount of cycles we're going to get between now and the storm hitting. We have seen this happen before where it just keeps trending up into our area. Not banking on it, but not unheard of either

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Trend continues since 00z yesterday.  The real accumulating snow has trended north several runs in a row here’s a loop of last 4 cycles.  Warming snows to central Jersey now.. 

on a side note this has a chance to drop 8-16” of snow from NW Kansas to the East Coast over a 1300 mile swath 

Reeling this one in down here 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

That was quite the snow squall.  Dropped close to .5" in about 25 minutes.  

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it's true in a vacuum....the idealized model so-to-speak. You are preaching to the choir on the physics of this. But clearly there is something offsetting the isolated variable of westerlies/polar jet because our cold season precipitation is not even holding neutral.

That's why I'm skeptical of "oh the reason we can't get a storm to amplify right now is because climate change has screwed the orientation of the jet stream so now we're stuck with a disproportionate number of positively tilted troughs versus the 1981-2010 baseline." If that were true, we'd see a drastic decrease in cold season precipitation, but we haven't.

It's hard to ever prove anything in the case of a few events or even a few seasons....but my hunch is the reason we're failing in the shorter term here is that the block is verifying stronger and further west than originally progged which is turning the flow extremely meridional to our west next week while simultaneously not allowing any real downstream ridging....so it is going to leave us with a positively tilted longwave trough.

these are just my thoughts - not trying to be argumentative.

it's not just positively tilted troughs ... ( a bit reductive on my part).  the study i posted is an academically accredited/refereed work.  the jets (definitely the nfl team!) are increasing at farther north latitude.  plus, there's increasing velocities - also scienced.  can did that up too... which imposes increasing shear, disrupted phase mechanics ( dx exceeds dy too much in the differential trough morphology), general negative interference (non linear ).    

global precipitation is elevating everywhere all over the world.  that's ambient +d(wv) - which is also not merely attributed, but is mathmetically a rather low bar calculation for a junior Met student.

in the same vein ..i'm not sure positive vs negative trough orientation 'tendency' can really be crossed up with qpf verification very easily.  that's a torturous tedium for a red headed grad student t.a.  not much of a refutation in my mind, anyway.    positive tilted troughs generate rain and snow. in fact, long duration overrunning events tend to be l/w's that are significantly tilted/positively sloped.  also,  needle thread storms were on the right exit region of jet core with the trough lagging back clear to almost the arklatex.   

 

 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Still light years away from being anything more than flurries for SNe though.

need another 300 miles, at 100 hours 

Another 50 miles for southern CT.  Just moved 250 miles since 00z run .. we will see

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

If you loop H5, you can see the flow is so meridional....even at times pealing back to the SSW because of the block. I do see Tippy's point though. In the long run we are screwing things up...but in this case, I think the block is just augmenting this issue. Maybe we have some undertones of CC baked in there.

oh yeah... i mean the block?  that's gonna be the case in 1960 ...

you can't sit an elephant's ass down on a trampoline and then have anything left to bounce the flow

[MJO812]

[dendrite]

Keep hoping the confluence backs off and that we can get more convection in the south than modeled. There’s still a weenie vortlobe that tries to shunt it south at the last minute. Keep that scooter shit streak up in PQ longer.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Coating here.  Better than last night 

[Typhoon Tip]

anyway ... another aspect that is hugely useful in explaining things for me is that the western ridge in these operational models have really been struggling to gasther the size and scale they were implied to achieve by the ensemble means, very fantastic even eye-popping appeals.  

this gefs mean ....

...from last friday, for the 9th,

is poorly represented by this operational gfs from 12z this morning

 

obviously we don't expect them to be perfectly matched, but regardless of cause ...the flow is tilting positive here in this recent run, both relative to the earlier gefs, and in general, and it's fucking shit up.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

My thoughts haven't changed....season will end up with somewhat below average snowfall for most of us, but I think we will see a lot of it once this block relaxes late month. I still think we get whacked.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Great dicussion @ORH_wxmanand @Typhoon Tip.

[Go Kart Mozart]

17 minutes ago, dendrite said:

more convection in the south than modeled

Academic question...how does that help...latent heat release raises heights downstream?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Go Kart Mozart said:

Academic question...how does that help...latent heat release raises heights downstream?

Yea. Maybe it nets CT an inch....

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Academic question...how does that help...latent heat release raises heights downstream?

Yes. The process of latent heat release from convection will help with mid level warmth and pump heights up downstream of it. 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea. Maybe it nets CT an inch....

Hoping here in Southwest Connecticut.

[CoastalWx]

Any clouds formed release some sort of latent heat......it's just that convection obviously is a vigorous process of deep cloud depth formation.

[CoastalWx]

23 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

More teases.

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Virga north of NYC on that look 

Yup. Going to need a lot more than that to saturate with the confluence 

[Go Kart Mozart]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea. Maybe it nets CT an inch....

!!!!!

[UnitedWx]

49 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

What's to say that this trend isn't going to continue. We still have Friday, Saturday, Sunday into Monday for this trend to continue. This has trended North in four cycles. We can basically almost triple the amount of cycles we're going to get between now and the storm hitting. We have seen this happen before where it just keeps trending up into our area. Not banking on it, but not unheard of either

I wouldn't get your hopes up... but it also isn't something to toss yet either. Confluence is a funny thing. I have seen times when we're supposed to be blocked and get hit (and vice versa)

[ORH_wxman]

27 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

anyway ... another aspect that is hugely useful in explaining things for me is that the western ridge in these operational models have really be struggling to gather the size and scale of presumptive influence they were implied to have by the ensemble means' very fantastic even eye-popping appeals.  

this gefs mean ....

...from last friday, for the 9th,

is poorly represented by this operational gfs from 12z this morning

 

obviously we don't expect them to be perfectly matched, but regardless of cause ...the flow is tilting positive here in this recent run, both relative to the earlier gefs, and in general, and it's fucking shit up.

 

Look at the NAO region right back into Hudson Bay on the OP run versus the ensemble mean. 

[Damage In Tolland]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea. Maybe it nets CT an inch....

Nice 1-3 spot 4 from Wiz south 

[Patrick-02540]

4 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

I wouldn't get your hopes up... but it also isn't something to toss yet either. Confluence is a funny thing. I have seen times when we're supposed to be blocked and get hit (and vice versa)

Well, in the worst case scenario, at least we get some dim sun or flurries from a storm we've been tracking for over two weeks.