Jester January

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

it's just like the great lakes.

i can remember so many painful days as a lad in/around Kalamazoo Michigan winters where it would be unadulterated purity of blue sky above ...while 10 mi away there was solid wall of merged low top cbs - under witch white out conditions. 

I can see the edge of that snow band in the distance so close yet so far

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, Allsnow said:

 

you know what's funny about this image?   ...someone posted something similar to this from some other ... oh i think it was 12 panels of the individual eps members maybe, but they also had that misery negative exposure -

what's funny is that if you go back several days and dig up any of those big bomb blizzards that were there, it's just about diametric to that image.  we've been yo-yoing between history, vs histrionic personality disorders.  lol

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, radarman said:

Like a half inch in 15 minutes and pound town

awesome send it up here when you're done 

[Sn0waddict]

Getting quite gusty here whenever the sun comes out. No snow squalls sadly.

[Allsnow]

7 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

..and the surprise is?? lol Reality is beginning to sink in for the for the believers...

We need a Brooklyn post to make us feel better

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah maybe it doesn't work out....but then again, this current pattern is still only in its infancy. Something in the 1/10-1/15 range could easily pop. We had zero problems getting negatively tilted troughs on New Year's day.....

i know that. i started a thread for it because it was interesting - the lack of cold air made it (understandably) less interesting to this group. haha.  it's in mind..

but, please keep in mind that 'tendency' in principle allows for distracting outliers ...   it's about deck and dice loading.   if we're tending to rotate troughs positive more so than in history, we started getting more failures kind of a thing.  

i'd rather have an objective limitations identified that are different from the super productive, impossible to ameliorate    'oh god oh god oh god'  thing that gets posted. 

[Great Snow 1717]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

We need a Brooklyn post to make us feel better

 

 

I'll be cleaning my sock draw....

[Prismshine Productions]

Looks like we wait until around the 18th for the next shot, Both the GFS and Euro have something for then.

That was the start of my target zone timeframe... 1/17-2/5

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

i know that. i started a thread for it because it was interesting - the lack of cold air made it (understandably) less interesting to this group. haha.  it's in mind..

but, please keep in mind that 'tendency' in principle allows for distracting outliers ...   it's about deck and dice loading.   if we're tending to rotate troughs positive more so than in history, we started getting more failures kind of a thing.  

i'd rather have an objective limitations identified that are different from the super productive, impossible to ameliorate    'oh god oh god oh god'  thing that gets posted. 

Do we know for a fact that we are getting more positively tilted troughs than usual in recent years? That would normally have a consequence of much drier sensible wx than normal, but that doesn't seem to fit the observed data.

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Do we know for a fact that we are getting more positively tilted troughs than usual in recent years? That would normally have a consequence of much drier sensible wx than normal, but that doesn't seem to fit the observed data.

i've personally observed this trending phenomenon, but i can assure you ...it's more than purely anecdotal.

this article from Phys.org ( a nice site that offers paraphrased content across multiple scientific disciplines ... ) is among others that have been popping up.

https://phys.org/news/2024-12-longer-climate-impact-atmospheric-circulation.html

there's several paragraphs there, forwarded from this source: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024AV001297

"..Already-detected signals of climate change affecting circulation include a poleward shift of jet streams in the lower troposphere and a weakening of the Northern Hemisphere jet stream and storm track. The dynamics of some signals are understood and have been ..."   

polarward shift in jet tendencies is quite consistent with increased westerly momentum above mid latitudes - but folks can read it

 

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

i've personally observed this trending phenomenon, but i can assure you ...it's more than purely anecdotal.

this article from Phys.org ( a nice site that offers paraphrased content across multiple scientific disciplines ... ) is among others that have been popping up.

https://phys.org/news/2024-12-longer-climate-impact-atmospheric-circulation.html

there's several paragraphs there, forwarded from this source: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024AV001297

"..Already-detected signals of climate change affecting circulation include a poleward shift of jet streams in the lower troposphere and a weakening of the Northern Hemisphere jet stream and storm track. The dynamics of some signals are understood and have been ..."   

polarward shift in jet tendencies is quite consistent with increased westerly momentum above mid latitudes - but folks can read it

 

Poleward shift but also weaker trend as well....i dunno, doesn't seem very convincing in explaining our current predicament. But my default is always to be skeptical of attribution of any given setup to a larger trend.

It would seem to only explain a general warming trend and the the result of deceasing delta-T between polar region and mid-latitudes (hence the weakening of the jets when arctic warms faster than mid-latitude). Of course, I'm sure we'll have no problem getting negatively tilted troughs when we are lacking good confluence in Quebec.

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Jester changed to Joke…January?

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Poleward shift but also weaker trend as well....i dunno, doesn't seem very convincing in explaining our current predicament. But my default is always to be skeptical of attribution of any given setup to a larger trend.

It would seem to only explain a general warming trend and the the result of deceasing delta-T between polar region and mid-latitudes (hence the weakening of the jets when arctic warms faster than mid-latitude). Of course, I'm sure we'll have no problem getting negatively tilted troughs when we are lacking good confluence in Quebec.

 

if you have fast jet's n of you in the mean, than your building heights underneath the jets...that certainly displaces/slopes the ridge. 

that's just true.  

look, these studies are there for people to use at some point, in a practicum.  it makes no use for them to just exist.   we can keep being skeptical of attribution but that strikes me as passive denial - which i'm not even going to approach.   that's just objectively false

[Hoth]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I honestly believe that a sub 10” snowfall season is possible in SNE as a hypothetical bottom. 

Been there, done that two years ago. And nearly last year if not for a last minute stick save. 

[Patrick-02540]

Ripping here now.  Sustained at 20-25.  Gusts to 40.

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

if you have fast jet's n of you in the mean, than your building heights underneath the jets...that certainly displaces/slopes the ridge. 

that's just true.  

look, these studies are there for people to use at some point, in a practicum.  it makes no use for them to just exist.   we can keep being skeptical of attribution but that strikes me as passive denial - which i'm not even going to approach.   that's just objectively false

Yeah it's true in a vacuum....the idealized model so-to-speak. You are preaching to the choir on the physics of this. But clearly there is something offsetting the isolated variable of westerlies/polar jet because our cold season precipitation is not even holding neutral.

That's why I'm skeptical of "oh the reason we can't get a storm to amplify right now is because climate change has screwed the orientation of the jet stream so now we're stuck with a disproportionate number of positively tilted troughs versus the 1981-2010 baseline." If that were true, we'd see a drastic decrease in cold season precipitation, but we haven't.

It's hard to ever prove anything in the case of a few events or even a few seasons....but my hunch is the reason we're failing in the shorter term here is that the block is verifying stronger and further west than originally progged which is turning the flow extremely meridional to our west next week while simultaneously not allowing any real downstream ridging....so it is going to leave us with a positively tilted longwave trough.

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it's true in a vacuum....the idealized model so-to-speak. You are preaching to the choir on the physics of this. But clearly there is something offsetting the isolated variable of westerlies/polar jet because our cold season precipitation is not even holding neutral.

That's why I'm skeptical of "oh the reason we can't get a storm to amplify right now is because climate change has screwed the orientation of the jet stream so now we're stuck with a disproportionate number of positively tilted troughs versus the 1981-2010 baseline." If that were true, we'd see a drastic decrease in cold season precipitation, but we haven't.

It's hard to ever prove anything in the case of a few events or even a few seasons....but my hunch is the reason we're failing in the shorter term here is that the block is verifying stronger and further west than originally progged which is turning the flow extremely meridional to our west next week while simultaneously not allowing any real downstream ridging....so it is going to leave us with a positively tilted longwave trough.

Absolutely.  The blocking(location and strength) is causing the problem.  But as you pointed out, this pattern is just now setting in, so something may pop(or not) or change as we go along. 

[CoastalWx]

If you loop H5, you can see the flow is so meridional....even at times pealing back to the SSW because of the block. I do see Tippy's point though. In the long run we are screwing things up...but in this case, I think the block is just augmenting this issue. Maybe we have some undertones of CC baked in there.

[ineedsnow]

that band is nuts west of Utica 

[weatherwiz]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If you loop H5, you can see the flow is so meridional....even at times pealing back to the SSW because of the block. I do see Tippy's point though. In the long run we are screwing things up...but in this case, I think the block is just augmenting this issue. Maybe we have some undertones of CC baked in there.

What about solar activity...there is a correlation between solar activity and blocking so I wonder what, if any, influence solar activity is having. Perhaps it isn't necessarily influencing the structure of the blocking but it very well could be. The atmospheric chemistry isn't something I understand well (though that was a fun course...wish we got more out of that class) but chemical reactions occurring within the stratosphere could be helping to shape the stratospheric PV.

Just kind of thinking out loud here. I wish I could retake atmospheric chemistry...that wasn't the name of the class...maybe it was remote sensing but that was interesting stuff. 

[ORH_wxman]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If you loop H5, you can see the flow is so meridional....even at times pealing back to the SSW because of the block. I do see Tippy's point though. In the long run we are screwing things up...but in this case, I think the block is just augmenting this issue. Maybe we have some undertones of CC baked in there.

I think there is always undertones of CC baked in anywhere, but the question is whether it explains 60% of the issue or 1% of the issue. I lean toward the latter in this specific case. There's so many other variables (including other parts of the atmospheric circulation that CC influences) that can offset a single variable....a very simplistic example would be "more precip in the winter is offsetting warmer temps which is why we saw an increase in snowfall from the 1970s-2010s". There's probably a large influence of natural variability there as well, but we do know that increased precip and increased temps are an undertone to CC and both of those occurred...however, when it came to snowfall, one of those was offsetting the other.

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think there is always undertones of CC baked in anywhere, but the question is whether it explains 60% of the issue or 1% of the issue. I lean toward the latter in this specific case. There's so many other variables (including other parts of the atmospheric circulation that CC influences) that can offset a single variable....a very simplistic example would be "more precip in the winter is offsetting warmer temps which is why we saw an increase in snowfall from the 1970s-2010s". There's probably a large influence of natural variability there as well, but we do know that increased precip and increased temps are an undertone to CC and both of those occurred...however, when it came to snowfall, one of those was offsetting the other.

Yeah, I don’t disagree. We need a longer sample size too, to really dig into this.

[weatherwiz]

The other thing with Monday is there could be some robust convection moving across the Gulf Coast states late Sunday and early Monday...that is going to rob moisture north. Something that may even hold back accumulations within portions of the Ohio Valley (Indiana/Ohio)

[ineedsnow]

lol 18z ICON

[ineedsnow]

[SnowGoose69]

5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

lol 18z ICON

There's been a joke for a few years that the ICON is better at 120 or 144 than it is inside Day 4 and I've honestly felt thats overall true.  I've seen many instances where a storm is inside that range and the Euro/GFS/UKIE/NAM all agree and the ICON is nowhere close yet 2 days before it had that idea the others all now agree on

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Virga north of NYC on that look 

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

lol 18z ICON

These storms trend north .

[Layman]

35 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think there is always undertones of CC baked in anywhere, but the question is whether it explains 60% of the issue or 1% of the issue. I lean toward the latter in this specific case. There's so many other variables (including other parts of the atmospheric circulation that CC influences) that can offset a single variable....a very simplistic example would be "more precip in the winter is offsetting warmer temps which is why we saw an increase in snowfall from the 1970s-2010s". There's probably a large influence of natural variability there as well, but we do know that increased precip and increased temps are an undertone to CC and both of those occurred...however, when it came to snowfall, one of those was offsetting the other.

It's even simpler than that.  May I introduce "poisonous fog":  https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-14239417/thick-fog-mystery-chemical-smell-reports.html 

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

These storms trend north .

Click your heals Dorothy.