Jester January

[Kitz Craver]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is actually by far the worst of the past 7 duds into mid January. You just can allow yourself to entertain the notion that it can't get can't worse because then it does.

All of this cold air we’ve had and I have just north of 2” to show for it and looks like nothing to add to that massive total for who the F knows how long.

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is like 1979-80.

Polar vortex killed the heavy snow star. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I honestly believe that a sub 10” snowfall season is possible in SNE as a hypothetical bottom. 

Boston has done it.

[Typhoon Tip]

47 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The thread title is fitting because all you can do is laugh at how many different ways to get screwed in a good pattern.

it's really only one way ... correct below, a lot of this consternation goes away.

all these troughs in the flow ( really have to look at it in a mercadian vantage to see it - ) are positively tilted. 

a lot of these winters have this a leitmotif where any positive heights are trying to 'fold over'.   like ridge top wave breaking.  the reason is complicated ...

probably won't communicate very well buuut it's due to quickening ambient velocities near the seam of where the Ferrel circulation interfaces with mid latitude westerlies - roughly 55 N at this time of year.  steeper gradients around the hemisphere --> jet responses and westerly momentum are increased ( in the means ).  ...we end up with structures like this...

it may be attribution frankly ( 'attribution' in the context refers to a part of cc expression ).    much to the chagrin of the eye rolling that started 2.4 seconds ago -  

anyway, those bigger bombs that took place out around the "dependable" ( lol ) day 12's?  they occurred whenever this tipping tendency was less.  i noticed that. in fact, whenever the troughs even hint at neutrality, almost in lock step there was more proficiency in cyclonic genesis points.  

it may be that this predicament has become what that prefix syllable implies: a "pre" condition. one that is perhaps built in and has to be overcome nowadays.  it just lowers the odds that any neg tilted phase hard-on out in time will ever make into interior time frames, in tact.  

[RDRY]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

Pittsfield crushed

 

https://wnyt.com/cdphp-first-warning-cam-pittsfield/

Looks like Bousquet in the background.

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Most positively titled trough on the face of the planet.

Good night.

I made a smilar OB last night, John...agreed.

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

it's really only one way ... correct below, a lot of this consternation goes away.

all these troughs in the flow ( really have to look at it in a mercadian vantage to see it - ) are positively tilted. 

a lot of these winters have this a leitmotif where any positive heights are trying to 'fold over'.   like ridge top wave breaking.  the reason is complicated ...

probably won't communicate very well buuut it's due to quickening ambient velocities near the seam of where the Ferrel circulation interfaces with mid latitude westerlies - roughly 55 N at this time of year.  steeper gradients around the hemisphere --> jet responses and westerly momentum are increased ( in the means ).  ...we end up with structures like this...

it may be attribution frankly ( 'attribution' in the context refers to a part of cc expression ).    much to the chagrin of the eye rolling that started 2.4 seconds ago -  

anyway, those bigger bombs that took place out around the "dependable" ( lol ) day 12's?  they occurred whenever this tipping tendency was less.  i noticed that. in fact, whenever the trough even hint at neutrality, almost in lock step there was more proficiency in cyclonic genesis points.  

it may be that this predicament has become what that prefix syllable implies: a "pre" condition. one that is perhaps built in and has to be overcome nowadays.  it just lowers the odds that any neg tilted phase hard-on out in time will ever make into interior time frames, in tact.  

 

[wokeupthisam]

If it's not a pac trough digging to Baja, it's a cyclonic energy well anchored there, it's become the Boo Hoo peninsula for NE winter hopes

[40/70 Benchmark]

Good time to check out for a while, I think...tune back mid month.

[78Blizzard]

27 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Looks like we wait until around the 18th for the next shot, Both the GFS and Euro have something for then.

[8611Blizz]

23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is like 1979-80.

Exactly! I couldn't place the year but this winter reminds me of those early 80's winters. Very little snow and high heating bills.  As we said back then it was shazbat.

[ORH_wxman]

39 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

End of the run we loose the -epo and +pna 

Gladly take a roll of the dice with this pattern at end of EPS.....slightly neg PNA with AK ridging and an east-based -NAO....at least suppression would be less of a worry.

[MJO812]

33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's going to be so much colder than last winter by mid month and as of now, likely will have just an inch and change to show for it. More snow at that point last winter. Un-effing-real.

I'm near 4 inches but hopefully more coming up. We need a big storm.

[WinterWolf]

22 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

All of this cold air we’ve had and I have just north of 2” to show for it and looks like nothing to add to that massive total for who the F knows how long.

Wow..have 7” here so far this year. 

[weatherwiz]

This is what I was trying to say Friday...maybe what we perceive as "great" or "perfect" isn't so great after all. I mean how many times can something look "great" and not produce before one takes a step back and says, "well geeze, maybe this isn't as good as thought"? But we can keep labeling these great because at some point the pattern will produce and it will elicit, "it finally worked" or "told ya so" :or "its all about patience"...but this is aiken to playing the lotto and playing the same numbers over and over, eventually the number is going to hit. 

We are probably skewed because of the larger storms than can be a product of these patterns, but what is the return rate on these patterns? If you were to play these patterns 100 times and maybe only 5 times does it elicit a big storm or a snowy period...can you really say the pattern is "great"? I mean the big question is...what is that return rate on this pattern and what return rate constitutes "great"?

[weathafella]

2 hours ago, mahk_webstah said:

He’ll play the first quarter is my bet and if he’s close, they’ll let him go for it. As for the storm…

He’s injury prone.  He’s out for game 17.

[Cyclone-68]

Got about three inches of snow so far this year. It looked like an Alaskan winter landscape for a little while compared to the last several years. 

[OceanStWx]

41 minutes ago, tunafish said:

Let's go for futility.  The April storm last Spring kept PWM off the top 10 least snowiest winters.  At 6.0" season to date and nothing on the horizon, let's keep this season under 25" and start Spring early.

 

[Edit- PWM had 38.0" last season.  GYX graphic out of date @OceanStWx?)

Still, if it isn't going to snow, futility or bust.

Sure seems that way. Maybe we've just gotten used to so little snow that it didn't seem out of the ordinary.

More than likely somebody hasn't updated the graphic yet.

[MJO812]

[Typhoon Tip]

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Gladly take a roll of the dice with this pattern at end of EPS.....slightly neg PNA with AK ridging and an east-based -NAO....at least suppression would be less of a worry.

there's a trend i don't like.   i mean i agree with the above, in principle - i boasted a post last evening showing something similar myself. 

however, about two weeks ago we were drooling over eps/gefs/geps means that looked similarly and/or canonically fantastic.  yet, here we are. as i was annotating/describing above...strife with this irritating rolled over trough look. that is what's materialized out of said 13 day outlook/footprint from back then.   that, become this

 

 

at a broader/seasonal perspective ... it shouldn't sit well with folks that we're burning up the first 10 days of january, with a la nina february on deck after the last 7 years worth of them ...half have had 70 to 80 - during an ever-attributable cc thing no less... yikes

i'll call the systems that show up in the 2 week window, either way... but outside of that effort, this winter is like Costanza in line at the soup nazi kitchen, "you're pushing your luck little man"

 

[powderfreak]

It’s been snowing in Stowe Village all day and not as much at the mountain.

Has to be easy 8-12” in town so far.

3,000ft High Road plot has had 14” since yesterday morning.

[radarman]

Heavy snow and wind here.  

[ineedsnow]

Just now, radarman said:

Heavy snow and wind here.  

hoping that band can move a bit north later on looks fun... congrats

[mahk_webstah]

12 minutes ago, weathafella said:

He’s injury prone.  He’s out for game 17.

No

[Allsnow]

 

[Typhoon Tip]

it's just like the great lakes.

i can remember so many painful days as a lad in/around Kalamazoo Michigan winters where it would be unadulterated purity of blue sky above ...while 10 mi away there was solid wall of merged low top cbs - under witch white out conditions. 

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

there's a trend i don't like.   i mean i agree with the above, in principle - i boasted a post last evening showing something similar myself. 

however, about two weeks ago we were drooling over eps/gefs/geps means that looked similarly and/or canonically fantastic.  yet, here we are. as i was annotating/describing above...strife with this irritating rolled over trough look. that is what's materialized out of said 13 day outlook/footprint from back then.   that, become this

 

 

at a broader/seasonal perspective ... it shouldn't sit well with folks that we're burning up the first 10 days of january, with a la nina february on deck after the last 7 years worth of them ...half have had 70 to 80 - during an ever-attributable cc thing no less... yikes

i'll call the systems that show up in the 2 week window, either way... but outside of that effort, this winter is like Costanza in line at the soup nazi kitchen, "you're pushing your luck little man"

 

Yeah maybe it doesn't work out....but then again, this current pattern is still only in its infancy. Something in the 1/10-1/15 range could easily pop. We had zero problems getting negatively tilted troughs on New Year's day.....

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

No

It’s already been reported he’s not playing a snap.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It’s been snowing in Stowe Village all day and not as much at the mountain.

Has to be easy 8-12” in town so far.

3,000ft High Road plot has had 14” since yesterday morning.

FU emoji…

[Great Snow 1717]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

..and the surprise is?? lol Reality is beginning to sink in for the for the believers...

[radarman]

5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

hoping that band can move a bit north later on looks fun... congrats

Like a half inch in 15 minutes and pound town