Jester January

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Might be mostly virga though verbatim 

I was going to say it will get eaten alive on the northern edge of the precip shield.

[Go Kart Mozart]

It looks like the Newfoundland vort has been kicked about 100 miles east run-to-run.  We need one more of those.  Just one more!

[mahk_webstah]

Qpf beefing up.  DC to NYC secs in the end.  Saquon withe the record and Philly with bullseye?

[dryslot]

Just now, Go Kart Mozart said:

It looks like the Newfoundland vort has been kicked about 100 miles east run-to-run.  We need one more of those.  Just one more!

To bad it didn't kicked to the fukkin curb.

[mahk_webstah]

We’ve been tracking this awhile.  Still 3.5, out

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Go Kart Mozart said:

It looks like the Newfoundland vort has been kicked about 100 miles east run-to-run.  We need one more of those.  Just one more!

That's the really hard part...you need to keep the trends going and not have it revert back even partially.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

6 minutes ago, Patrick-02540 said:

We gotta tick north 25 miles/day.  

Gfs has been doing that each run since yesterday let’s see if it continues. Seems like we always revert back and in the end it’s not enough lately. 

[ineedsnow]

CMC blue balling now

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I was going to say it will get eaten alive on the northern edge of the precip shield.

Obviously any farther north track would negate that but I would presume there will be a sharp cutoff on the northern edge between something like 2-3'' and barely 2-3 flakes lol

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Qpf beefing up.  DC to NYC secs in the end.  Saquon withe the record and Philly with bullseye?

No record. Saquan ain’t playing. 

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

2-4 verbal assaults on the family with 4-6 broken toys.

Lollies to 8

[CoastalWx]

Looks like it will be OVC150 instead of OVC250. Epicosity.

[Typhoon Tip]

guys ...we're inside of 108 hours on that 6th deal ...it's a now caster/correction if at all, at this point... you can rock back and forth, self-soothing in hope counting down to model output times over the next run but it's too unlikely to be significantly enough different to bother... 

sig changes in the mass field/handling over western n/a in this 12z gfs wrt to the lead up to the 10/11th

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Obviously any farther north track would negate that but I would presume there will be a sharp cutoff on the northern edge between something like 2-3'' and barely 2-3 flakes lol

Yes, Definitely if it gets further north, But not sure how much more it can go with the blocking, This was my concerns last week when you start talking a -NAO and confluence that we could get skunked up here but even down your way as its really strong.

[mahk_webstah]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

No record. Saquan ain’t playing. 

He’ll play the first quarter is my bet and if he’s close, they’ll let him go for it. As for the storm…

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

He’ll play the first quarter is my bet and if he’s close, they’ll let him go for it. As for the storm…

He gets one of these anyways * as he had an extra game.

[mahk_webstah]

Just now, dryslot said:

He gets one of these anyways * as he had an extra game.

So did Dickerson.# carries and average per carry 

[radarman]

That's a historic storm in Texas on the GFS.  

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

So did Dickerson.# carries and average per carry 

Yeah. How OJ did it in 14 games is kind of wild (obviously a different game back then of course)

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, radarman said:

That's a historic storm in Texas on the GFS.  

Sure is 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah. How OJ did it in 14 games is kind of wild (obviously a different game back then of course)

More of a running game back in the day.

[tamarack]

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Sygyzy storm…that was one of the few great ones in the 1980s. Jan 9187 was actually an epic month at ORH. Almost 50” of snow that month.
 

 That decade did have some good November and spring storms as well (April ‘82, 3/29/84, 4/28/87). 

Near 50" here as well, with storms 16.0, 11.3, 4.7, 9.5, 7.3 plus some scraps for 49.3".  had some meat, too, with total precip 5.73", all flakes but ~1/2" of IP/ZR in #4.  The syzyzy storm was 2nd biggest of our 13 winters at Gardiner and went from 1st flakes to 1/8 mile visibility in <2 minutes, a classic wall.

The pack was well sustained, with 24" and ~7" SWE at the equinox.  March 23-30 had +8 temps but there was still 8" with perhaps 4" water in the very ripe pack.  Then 4.57" RA on 31-4/1 with temp near 50 (some gusts of 50, too) blew away the snow.  The Kennebec had the greatest peak flow in Maine records - 232,000 cfs - reaching 22 feet above flood stage at AUG.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

He gets one of these anyways * as he had an extra game.

It’s not the games anyway but the amount of carries. No asterisk. He’s not playing anyway so moot point.

[Patrick-02540]

3 minutes ago, radarman said:

That's a historic storm in Texas on the GFS.  

That's probably close to biblical for them.  

[Damage In Tolland]

16 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

2-4 verbal assaults on the family with 4-6 broken toys.

He just won’t take a board break lol 

[Snowcrazed71]

13 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

We’ve been tracking this awhile.  Still 3.5, out

Actually, it's more like 4.5 days out I'm reality... So definitely time for more shifts. 

This is what happened with that storm we had back in December where things shifted back north ( if I remember correctly ). Don't see why this isn't possible again.

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yes, Definitely if it gets further north, But not sure how much more it can go with the blocking, This was my concerns last week when you start talking a -NAO and confluence that we could get skunked up here but even down your way as its really strong.

Agreed, I have doubts on how far north too. In fact, with this system I think focusing on the edge of the precip shield is very misleading to thinking there is a "north trend". The bulk of the QPF is going to be tied into where forcing/ascent is strongest and that is in the mid-Atlantic. IMO, we would have to see a good couple hundred mile shift north of the ENTIRE system for anyone in SNE to even sniff out flakes.

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

That was the final big storm threat of the season near the equinox....I remember it well. ORH only needed like 3-4 inches to break their all time March monthly snowfall record and they couldn't even do it. It's amazing how much snow we got that month despite two large busts (at least in the interior)....the other one was the Mar 2nd storm which was supposed to be a rain to heavy wet snow scenario over interior. Didn't flip until way too late.

March 2018 had those 4 huge storms and like you we whiffed on #1 and #4, but the middle 2 totaled 36.4" here, pushing the season into triple digits.

[Great Snow 1717]

6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah. How OJ did it in 14 games is kind of wild (obviously a different game back then of course)

469 of those yards came against the Patriots. He averaged a little more than 6 yards per carry behind the Electric Company. And the day he went over the 2000 yard mark was also an epic bust for several  Boston TV mets. The Saturday before the game they were forecasting a very significant snowstorm for SNE but their forecasts busted badly.

[cut]

1 hour ago, Patrick-02540 said:

320 and 737.  Thinking crosswinds, too.  737 almost did a touch and go- to 30 feet.  Both had only 1 approach attempt, and shot right off to Bradley

Was at Tweed yesterday to pick up family from Orlando - their plane did the touch and go but came back in 10 minutes later. It was 4:30 so the winds were just starting. Wife said half the plane was puking.