Jester January

[Lava Rock]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It doesn't look warm and wet after the 15th. That date though looks to be when the ridge will be retroing west which will help with snow chances.

how confident are you in this, given the current pattern was supposed to be prolific

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The irony is it's snowing harder in town than the mountain due to the increase in Froude number to 1.5.

Half a foot of new snow in town and pounding.  It's got some water too, like 1/2" QPF.

The max has been in the RT 100 corridor on the east side.

Then I'll just sit there in your condo greeting you when you get back.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

how confident are you in this, given the current pattern was supposed to be prolific

I feel pretty confident. Nothing looks warm and wet at that time. You can never rule out a cutter, but the overall look isn't warm and wet. At least around the 18th.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I feel pretty confident. Nothing looks warm and wet at that time. You can never rule out a cutter, but the overall look isn't warm and wet. At least around the 18th.

I thought you weren’t looking more than 5 days ahead?

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I feel pretty confident. Nothing looks warm and wet at that time. You can never rule out a cutter, but the overall look isn't warm and wet. At least around the 18th.

Almost looks like a neutral or even slightly negative PNA pattern developing beyond 1/15 to go with the -NAO.

[roardog]

41 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I've done it when it's super cold...like single digits or below zero but my girlfriend also likes to sleep with the fan on so I usually bury myself under the blankets. Heat is set to 69.

Live a little and just set it to 70 for goodness sake.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I thought you weren’t looking more than 5 days ahead?

I causally look, but nothing else to do.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Almost looks like a neutral or even slightly negative PNA pattern developing beyond 1/15 to go with the -NAO.

That would certainly help us out with better chances while keeping temps conducive.

[Spanks45]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

So much for the epic pattern

Yeah, it seems like the only way to get snow anymore is to get lucky, thread the needle so to speak. But even then it hardly works out in our favor. Favorable patterns just end up cold/dry to warm/wet....

[Cyclone-68]

My friend in Uxbridge is without power with several trees down. Why is this so much worse out there than here?

[Patrick-02540]

Just now, Cyclone-68 said:

My friend in Uxbridge is without power with several trees down. Why is this so much worse out there than here?

Come to CT.  We don't need a weather event to lose power on a regular basis.  My road literally has poles dating back to the 1920s.  They aren't replaced until they come crashing down.  

[Prismshine Productions]

Live a little and just set it to 70 for goodness sake.

Nah, 69 is nice

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[Cyclone-68]

16 minutes ago, Patrick-02540 said:

Come to CT.  We don't need a weather event to lose power on a regular basis.  My road literally has poles dating back to the 1920s.  They aren't replaced until they come crashing down.  

Is it National Grid you have? That’s what she has. 

[Prismshine Productions]

What is funny is that I actually have to track that 6th storm... Got a cousin who lives not too far from DC so I am giving her updates

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[dryslot]

42 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I feel pretty confident. Nothing looks warm and wet at that time. You can never rule out a cutter, but the overall look isn't warm and wet. At least around the 18th.

Some in here would cut there throats if we got a cutter after this.

[CoastalWx]

25 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

My friend in Uxbridge is without power with several trees down. Why is this so much worse out there than here?

Haven’t seen much on the way of strong reports. Seems like 40-45 stuff. 

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s really not even a cold pattern . Just normal cold 

And it isn't the cold that's screwing the good pattern... it's the Atlantic blocking. So many cry for the NAO, but this is a great example of why it can be a bad thing

[UnitedWx]

43 minutes ago, roardog said:

Live a little and just set it to 70 for goodness sake.

69 is a way cooler number

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

And it isn't the cold that's screwing the good pattern... it's the Atlantic blocking. So many cry for the NAO, but this is a great example of why it can be a bad thing

It’s location too. This is sort of on the south and west limitations. 

[Patrick-02540]

14 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Is it National Grid you have? That’s what she has. 

Neversource.

[weatherwiz]

55 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I causally look, but nothing else to do.

The second half of the month seems much more favorable to me than this period was for us given how the structure of the NAO may evolve. I know you and Will touched upon that last evening, but I always felt our prospects are much higher when the core anomalies associated with the -NAO are poking into Greenland or you have a nice anomaly center just east-northeast of the tip of Greenland...assuming you have some cooperation from the PAC...a terrible PAC with this look can screw us greatly.  

[Damage In Tolland]

The first half of the month seemed favorable too.. until it didn’t 

[WxWatcher007]

I started this morning by looking at my tropical chase videos and posts from the season. Sigh.

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The first half of the month seemed favorable too.. until it didn’t 

Nah 1-3 at least coming on the 6th. Models always overestimate confluence. 

[Chrisrotary12]

I wonder what KASH's futility record is.... 2" to date with nothing on the horizon. Let's start golf season early this year! I got new sticks for Christmas. Need to break them in.

[Go Kart Mozart]

NAM stronger and further north through 84?  I wanted to do no-clown January...but I have already fallen off the wagon.

[Torch Tiger]

Looks like by the time we see a few snow shots/events, sun angle season will be upon us.  Just a massive chunk of mid-winter wasted for most.

[weatherwiz]

Anytime you have confluence around and it could be a major player, you can't let your guard down, even inside of 24-30 hours. This rings true whether models are consistent with a big hit or something more of a brush. 

Remember back in I want to say winter of 2017-2018, I think it was second half of winter, there was that big storm and models underestimated the confluence and what was looking like a good 1-2 feet for Connecticut ended up being a Long Island special. 

[Allsnow]

18 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The second half of the month seems much more favorable to me than this period was for us given how the structure of the NAO may evolve. I know you and Will touched upon that last evening, but I always felt our prospects are much higher when the core anomalies associated with the -NAO are poking into Greenland or you have a nice anomaly center just east-northeast of the tip of Greenland...assuming you have some cooperation from the PAC...a terrible PAC with this look can screw us greatly.  

It would be fitting if the pac goes to crap just as the block relaxes enough to get precipitation up into the northeast 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Anytime you have confluence around and it could be a major player, you can't let your guard down, even inside of 24-30 hours. This rings true whether models are consistent with a big hit or something more of a brush. 

Remember back in I want to say winter of 2017-2018, I think it was second half of winter, there was that big storm and models underestimated the confluence and what was looking like a good 1-2 feet for Connecticut ended up being a Long Island special. 

That was the final big storm threat of the season near the equinox....I remember it well. ORH only needed like 3-4 inches to break their all time March monthly snowfall record and they couldn't even do it. It's amazing how much snow we got that month despite two large busts (at least in the interior)....the other one was the Mar 2nd storm which was supposed to be a rain to heavy wet snow scenario over interior. Didn't flip until way too late.