40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Kind of a mid level magic look. Shortwave was going negative. Yup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 3 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: Well modern times yeah. My father was just telling me about a winter in the early 70s where it was brutal cold and absolutely no snow much of the winter. He was running around with water companies disconnecting electrical services so they could hook up a welder to the water main to thaw them. Said they did this for a couple weeks. New Hartford and surrounding areas were hit pretty bad. Although it REALLY hasn't been all that unusually cold. We're just used to springtime winter the last few We had some cold with little snow years but also had cold and snowy years, I remember ice fishing with my uncle with little snow but thick ice one year and another year had thick ice with 2 feet of snow we had to clear to drill our holes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 24 minutes ago, Bryan63 said: Moved up from NC with one plastic snow shovel and haven't needed to upgrade yet. I will believe it when I see snow on the ground. You may need a snow blower before the year is done. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 15 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: You may need a snow blower before the year is done. I’m really hoping we can get into two or three weeks of overrunning events. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 43 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Revenge of the bogs Nope. That would destroy me...that is how mid March 2018 event looked on the clowns. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 hour ago, dendrite said: You need to get to know Ray more Pedestrianshine Productions. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 57 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 3-6” Kev... I want to believe you but you haven't been right yet. 9 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 8 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: Kev... I want to believe you but you haven't been right yet. Ive had a very good winter forecasting. I missed the 1-3 last week but S CT got into that one . You guys all had that as a SNE whiff 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 You just have to understand the KFS and know how to use it. It has its biases and generally take 1/3 off the amounts. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ive had a very good winter forecasting. I missed the 1-3 last week but S CT got into that one . You guys all had that as a SNE whiff Let's hope you're right!! Next to week could be an active one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You just have to understand the KFS and know how to use it. It has its biases and generally take 1/3 off the amounts. sounds like the NAM 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Hey I just thought of something, where's Wolfie? I hope he didn't get gored by a candy crapping unicorn. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJln491 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You just have to understand the KFS and know how to use it. It has its biases and generally take 1/3 off the amounts. tends to show ice storms 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, DJln491 said: tends to show ice storms Don't forget the wind storms. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 5 minutes ago, DJln491 said: tends to show ice storms Yeah it has a mid level warmth bias along with a radiation issue where surface temps are too cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 I started a thread for the MLK threat. 6 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, weathafella said: I started a thread for the MLK threat. As long as it wasn't Tip. 2 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 minute ago, kdxken said: As long as it wasn't Tip. Depending on how this turns out it could be my new job! 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 6 minutes ago, weathafella said: Depending on how this turns out it could be my new job! I still think it is too early, but maybe Old Man Winter can bring the juju. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I still think it is too early, but maybe Old Man Winter can bring the juju. 5-6 days out is ok I think. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 28 minutes ago, weathafella said: Depending on how this turns out it could be my new job! perhaps we need a new croupier to deal out the threads... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 humor or not… it’s apparent some of you conflate “threads” with storm and or storm drama. Without actually reading the content of the thread starter and trying to digest what is going on there, and then you judge, after the fact like you were misled? The last thread said in the title, it was either going to be a big storm or complete whiff. Fairly meaning that it was a range of possibilities and guess what what it fucking snowed. I always qualify those discussions with probability and they’re not always that great so stop associating bad turnouts to your own poor interpretation. Jerry no problem with the thread, but I would suggest mentioning that there’s very low ensemble support right now for any specific event 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 3 hours ago, Prismshine Productions said: . Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk DC weenies hanging from the Monument? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 18z Skynet bombs SC with an ice stormSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: humor or not… it’s apparent some of you conflate “threads” with storm and or storm drama. Without actually reading the content of the thread starter and trying to digest what is going on there, and then you judge, after the fact like you were misled? The last thread said in the title, it was either going to be a big storm or complete whiff. Fairly meeting that it was a range of possibilities and guess what what it fucking snowed. I always qualify those discussions with probability and they’re not always that great so stop associating bad turnouts to your own poor interpretation. Jerry no problem with the thread, but I would suggest mentioning that there’s very low ensemble support right now for any specific event It’s odd that all the ops remain steadfast with a middling event. The ensembles are minimal to unrecognizable. Guess we’ll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 7 minutes ago, weathafella said: It’s odd that all the ops remain steadfast with a middling event. The ensembles are minimal to unrecognizable. Guess we’ll see. yeah it is but I think in this case the high compression needs higher resolution to suss out the important perturbations; that which is native to the operational versions, comparing to their lesser informed ensemble members … it may give something back to confidence. It is overall a sensitive shaky set up. 18z op gfs shows how to overcome but again - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: humor or not… it’s apparent some of you conflate “threads” with storm and or storm drama. Without actually reading the content of the thread starter and trying to digest what is going on there, and then you judge, after the fact like you were misled? The last thread said in the title, it was either going to be a big storm or complete whiff. Fairly meeting that it was a range of possibilities and guess what what it fucking snowed. I always qualify those discussions with probability and they’re not always that great so stop associating bad turnouts to your own poor interpretation. Jerry no problem with the thread, but I would suggest mentioning that there’s very low ensemble support right now for any specific event Reading comprehension is not a high point with the general populus. All you have to do is listen to or read the comments after any snow event. If the forecast was 8 to 12 inches, everyone who received less than 12" complains the forecast was wrong! Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 Saw in a weather discord the Euro ensembles want a big time -EPO with a +AO towards the end of the monthSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 Time to burn the midnight oil... 0z GFS running Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyRyB Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Time to burn the midnight oil... 0z GFS running Sent from my SM-S146VL using TapatalkAnd......GFS OP missing the 20th again. Time for bed. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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