Greg Posted Monday at 10:40 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:40 PM 3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Not with everything else east Everything else east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Monday at 10:40 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:40 PM 3 hours ago, jbenedet said: This reminds me of blizzard of 96 but more south/east - due to more confluence over the northeast. I referenced this pattern about a 12 days ago, and it's here...ready to deliver... I think you're in a good spot at this lead time based on latest guidance. So is the inside 95 crew of new england. North of there, yea, odds fall off fast but I'd be watching closely up to the pike. well, here you go 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Monday at 10:41 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:41 PM 2 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Where's my revenge? Clown maps show me getting pummeled, but I don't believe it. Move 20 miles NW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted Monday at 10:41 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:41 PM 24 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: could be the most powerful NJ Model low solution i've ever seen... the only competition to this i can think of is Dec 2005 in fact, 2005 didn't make the top 10 analog list, but i argue that's the western ridge component to the total field, because centric to the device, that is pretty goodly matched... maybe 85% in a narrower domain this thing at 120 hrs is actually more intense in this 18z gfs op. Jan 2005 made the list from 12z. It was 12th out of 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Monday at 10:41 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:41 PM That’s 1-3 feet all of SNE away from coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Monday at 10:42 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:42 PM Definitely want to see something similar on the 18z EPS. Note how little is held back here Compared to the 12z EPS (which was a modest improvement over 00z) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted Monday at 10:42 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:42 PM 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’m just entertaining solutions at this point. Will be good to get a storm and break up the mundane weather for years. Not much to add other than it’s all or nothing I think. Don’t see much in between. Crazy how OKX/BOX doesnt even have a mention of snow in the grids and zones. At this point you gotta be at least 30-40% pops i would i think. Not that it matters i just found it interesting they're like 0% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted Monday at 10:42 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:42 PM I wouldn’t be high fivin’ and belly bumping just yet. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted Monday at 10:43 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:43 PM Just now, The 4 Seasons said: Crazy how OKX/BOX doesnt even have a mention of snow in the grids and zones. At this point you gotta be at least 30-40% pops i would i think. Not that it matters i just found it interesting they're like 0% Still 4+ days away. They will be cautious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Monday at 10:44 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:44 PM Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: I wouldn’t be high fivin’ and belly bumping just yet. Oh we bumpin n bangin 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted Monday at 10:44 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:44 PM 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I wouldn’t be high fivin’ and belly bumping just yet. Agreed. I like that the gfs doubled down, but want to see the Euro join the party tonight. It’s a very complicated setup. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted Monday at 10:46 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:46 PM 19 hours ago, wxsniss said: I’m relatively bullish on this. Feels like there’s multiple ways to have some impact… longwave pattern is decent, stronger northern energy and/or the slightest stream interaction gets at least some impact to 95 corridor/SNE… Usual caveats, nothing is guaranteed at this point and details tbd… but the “thread the needle” outcome is OTS imo. Continued big improvement with 18z GEFS at H5 and surface members Model momentum today favors a huge impact, details tbd... I maintain what I said yesterday: Euro/EPS is the one threading the needle to a non-event. Won't be surprised if it abruptly jumps in one cycle to a big hit between tonight - Tuesday 12z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Monday at 10:47 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:47 PM Look at these changes. This is what you want to see. 00z 06z 12z 18z 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted Monday at 10:47 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:47 PM 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That’s 1-3 feet all of SNE away from coast Close but not quite. Use the 10:1 ratio map and you'll see why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted Monday at 10:47 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:47 PM Just now, wxsniss said: Continued big improvement with 18z GEFS at H5 and surface members Model momentum today favors a huge impact, details tbd... I maintain what I said yesterday: Euro/EPS is the one threading the needle to a non-event. Won't be surprised if it abruptly jumps in one cycle to a big hit between tonight - Tuesday 12z. This is what I’m looking for before I get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted Monday at 10:47 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:47 PM 4 minutes ago, Greg said: Everything else east? ? Yes every model is well east of where the GFS is currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted Monday at 10:48 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 10:48 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted Monday at 10:48 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:48 PM If that's in the cards come Friday, I'll be cancelling my event and heading up to Pit2. Give me a little wind with my snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted Monday at 10:50 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:50 PM 7 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Crazy how OKX/BOX doesnt even have a mention of snow in the grids and zones. At this point you gotta be at least 30-40% pops i would i think. Not that it matters i just found it interesting they're like 0% Humpin the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted Monday at 10:51 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:51 PM I’m still thinking today’s event to the south is mucking up the models a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Monday at 10:52 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:52 PM The next frame for those unnecessarily panicked There’s still a long way to go. Far from locked, but better than we were starting the day. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted Monday at 10:52 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:52 PM Am I wrong or is that kind of ugly for the SE quarter of CT/RI and SE Mass? Looks like a lot of taint and dry slot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted Monday at 10:54 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:54 PM 2 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: Humpin the Euro. 5 days out---plenty of time to add it in. I suspect if there's any consistency and cross-model support at 00z it'll be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Monday at 10:54 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:54 PM Just now, moneypitmike said: Am I wrong or is that kind of ugly for the SE quarter of CT/RI and SE Mass? Looks like a lot of taint and dry slot. Would be a lot of taint to BOS verbatim, but the euro is also a lot of cirrus too. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted Monday at 10:54 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:54 PM 2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Am I wrong or is that kind of ugly for the SE quarter of CT/RI and SE Mass? Looks like a lot of taint and dry slot. You're not wrong. Verbatim, it's still an exciting storm for them (heavy snow/rain, wind, and coastal flooding). If the GFS plays out, a weekend at Killington is in order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted Monday at 10:54 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:54 PM 7 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: ? Yes every model is well east of where the GFS is currently Tale of two camps on the ensembles though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted Monday at 10:55 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:55 PM If the Euro can come into the party, and we are still seeing consistency with the GFS/GEFS within 96 hours, I think we have a pretty high confidence...of course anything has taught us in the past that anything can and will happen, I am almost skeptical until go time at this point...or wait until the NAM spits out it's 60+ inch amount run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted Monday at 10:55 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:55 PM We're back to where we were at 18z on Saturday. 6 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted Monday at 10:58 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:58 PM 2 minutes ago, tavwtby said: If the Euro can come into the party, and we are still seeing consistency with the GFS/GEFS within 96 hours, I think we have a pretty high confidence...of course anything has taught us in the past that anything can and will happen, I am almost skeptical until go time at this point...or wait until the NAM spits out it's 60+ inch amount run... You know there's going to be one of those. Lol. There always is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted Monday at 10:59 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:59 PM 4 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Tale of two camps on the ensembles though Yes obviously , the phasers and unphased Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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