H2Otown_WX Posted Monday at 05:22 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:22 PM 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: A far western lean or a tuck right now isn't necessarily a bad thing. We know how this goes...there will be some last minute corrections...I guess as long as those corrections end up being east and not more west But I think the most tucked solutions are probably the envelops as to how tucked this can get. There is more room for east lean versus farther west lean Shoulder Lean? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted Monday at 05:23 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:23 PM 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Another busted forecast where we were in line for 20+ but the nw trends caused us to dryslot after the initial wwa. Catskills were deformed. Oh ok, yeah that's typical lol. It goes east or northwest or sometimes southwest. Ray thinks it's bad there but he doesn't know how jackpot resistant this area is... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted Monday at 05:24 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:24 PM 1 minute ago, Kitz Craver said: With the oscillating between complete whiffs and blockbusters and not much in between, is this an all or nothing scenario? Yes for the most part....I wouldn't call it literally all or nothing, but there's a very strong non-linear response to the features here. If you get the phase, it's probably going to be big, if it misses, there's a decent chance at a total whiff. There's probably a few "knife's edge" partial phase scenarios where we get a moderate event out of it. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted Monday at 05:26 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 05:26 PM Congrats ALB-BTV?HiSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted Monday at 05:27 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:27 PM Very early but the N lobe looks stronger and better positioned…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted Monday at 05:28 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 05:28 PM Very early but the N lobe looks stronger and better positioned….12z Euro?Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Monday at 05:29 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:29 PM Timing wise Saturday or overnight Saturday start time? Any thoughts? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted Monday at 05:29 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:29 PM 2 minutes ago, Heisy said: Very early but the N lobe looks stronger and better positioned… . Improved but not enough.....gonna whiff this run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted Monday at 05:31 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:31 PM 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Timing wise Saturday or overnight Saturday start time? Any thoughts? GFS had us starting snowing in SW CT at 1pm, 5 days from now. Most of the best comes evening/overnight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted Monday at 05:31 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:31 PM This run probably won’t get it done… you can see the differences better here with the N stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted Monday at 05:32 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 05:32 PM This run probably won’t get it done… you can see the differences better here with the N stream.Step in the right direction at least, that is a positive Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted Monday at 05:33 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:33 PM 36 minutes ago, dryslot said: We will need more help, I'm skeptical. Agreed. I’m kicking the can to the next period. Any snow next weekend is a win but not expecting much. Too many factors working against this gaining enough latitude for here, hope I’m wrong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted Monday at 05:33 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:33 PM Just now, NW_of_GYX said: Agreed. I’m kicking the can to the next period. Any snow next weekend is a win but not expecting much. Too many factors working against this gaining enough latitude for here, hope I’m wrong Probably not IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted Monday at 05:33 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:33 PM It’s frustrating to know that just the small difference with the N stream goes from a nothing event or a bomb . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted Monday at 05:34 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:34 PM Would rather be looking at cutters trending to SWFEs than trying to steal MA snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Monday at 05:36 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:36 PM 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Improved but not enough.....gonna whiff this run. 4 minutes ago, Heisy said: This run probably won’t get it done… you can see the differences better here with the N stream . Yep. Won’t get there but I suppose it’s something. Let’s see what the ensembles do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted Monday at 05:36 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:36 PM Roads are a freaking mess down here. Crews caught with their pants around their ankles. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted Monday at 05:36 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:36 PM Perhaps the ensembles will be more enouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted Monday at 05:37 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:37 PM My map is 75 hours out, one of the models is going to be atrociously wrong. Almost always is the GFS. Just like it’s 6z run it’s more prone to making large scale changes, it could easily cave at 18z, we’ll see what happens . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted Monday at 05:37 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:37 PM Just now, Go Kart Mozart said: Roads are a freaking mess down here. Crews caught with their pants around their ankles. Sad that a dusting causes this much issues down here, guy behind me speeding hit a telephone pole.. 1 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted Monday at 05:38 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:38 PM GFS typically handles the northern stream better, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted Monday at 05:38 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:38 PM Not enough on the 12z Euro but it was a slight improvement over 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted Monday at 05:39 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:39 PM 4 minutes ago, Heisy said: It’s frustrating to know that just the small difference with the N stream goes from a nothing event or a bomb . This does seem to be an all or nothing scenario unfortunately. I would be fine with half the totals on the gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted Monday at 05:40 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:40 PM 1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Sad that a dusting causes this much issues down here, guy behind me speeding hit a telephone pole.. OT obviously but the drivers in this state are some of the worst I've ever seen. I guess that applies to the whole northeast though south of I-90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted Monday at 05:40 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:40 PM Dr No with a resounding NO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted Monday at 05:40 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 05:40 PM Dr No with a resounding NO.More like a "plausible maybe"Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Monday at 05:41 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:41 PM Last couple years folks tossed the Euro. Now suddenly it’s right 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted Monday at 05:41 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:41 PM Just now, dryslot said: Dr No with a resounding NO. Oh, Hell no? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted Monday at 05:45 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:45 PM The differences between H5, not only with the northern stream, but the southern stream are absolutely wild but the differences are much more extreme with the northern stream. Must be a sampling difference...have to look at a larger view then just CONUS focused 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted Monday at 05:45 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:45 PM SnowGoose and all models except the GFS FTW? Stay tuned to the 18z runs to find out. I'd like to see the happy hour GooFuS indulge in Ronnie's stash and double down with 30-40" lollies to 50" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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