Jester January

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Gina?

My wife's name

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

With a lot more s stream involvement, I wouldn’t mind this being outside the BM for another couple days. We know how miller A’s trend…

Block up north will give a limit to this. But yeah, even with the block it could still theoretically try and cut up through NYC or some crap…but I’d put the probability fairly low right now. You need a lot of downstream ridging into Quebec to make that happen and the block will try and prevent that downstream ridging up north from getting extreme. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Amazing how we can go from brawling to kumbaya in the span of a couple hours. 

We love until 0z…

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

That’s tucked but thankfully that block up north helps keep those 925s solid. Still tough for immediate coast at the height of it but just inland would slay. 

I may CJ on that depiction. 

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Gina?

Greta 

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

My wife's name

Va?

[78Blizzard]

21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The Op is still the far west outlier with 988 over DE, so hopefully it takes one of those better tracks shown on the ensemble, at least for those who would taint under the op scenario.

[dryslot]

35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

lol at the avatar

I'd swallow a hand grenade.

[dryslot]

33 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

OP keeps running way left of gefs and every member but gefs mean keeps ticking closer to the BM with most members leaning west so it’s definitely sniffing something. 

Glue?

[rclab]

15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m getting that tingle down below 

Agreed and fully understand. That’s why long range is my only hope. As always ….

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, dryslot said:

Glue?

Must have gotten into Ron Washington’s locker…

[Heisy]

Trough is a touch more positively tilted than 12z, but it does look like it’s phasing. Not as much as 18z GFs though




.

[dryslot]

28 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Post H5

 

[Heisy]

While the storm is 180 hours out the phase we need happens around day 5, so by 18z models
Tomorrow or so I hope we start seeing more models hop on board.

For me 96 hour is usually when we start seeing some semblance of agreement on the overall h5 scheme. Obviously doesn’t always work out like that though, but you get what I’m saying

[8611Blizz]

Local TV Mets are already pimping this.... I really hope this one works out.

[40/70 Benchmark]

46 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

I’d say thread this after tomorrow’s 12z runs if we stay the course tween now and then.  Tip gets the honors.

Yea, updating myself tomorrow if things hold pat- This SW energy phasing in is the escape clause I left myself from the "cold and dry" take in the Thursday night piece

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

 

Yeah that more positively tilted than 12z so prob less impactful but we wouldn’t know for sure unless we saw more panels. But good to still see plenty of southern stream involvement. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

44 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Really weird for the GEFS to be the one "following the leader"... Got to be a really big signal developing in the ensemble noise for it to baby step towards OP

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

 

GEFS have been known to be somewhat non dispersive at times...

[40/70 Benchmark]

49 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I wouldn’t even care about the dryslot on that if we actually got the front end. Reminds me of the Mar ‘17 front ender. I think I had 15” in about 8 hours on that. 

Yea, but those who avoided it out on NYS had 25-40".

[klw]

On 1/1/2025 at 6:58 PM, klw said:

 Not concerned, I locked in the 18Z yesterday.  It will come back.  Plus we will get a storm on the 17th because we always get a storm on the 17th

[78Blizzard]

5 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Trough is a touch more positively tilted than 12z, but it does look like it’s phasing. Not as much as 18z GFs though




.

That sw energy is digging further than the 12z run.

[40/70 Benchmark]

39 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

As modeled now 18z would have precipitation type issues. Inside 495 down to C Ct. it would be a bummer.
Instead of a 2' they'd only be looking at maybe 4-6" BRUTAL.

4-6"?

No way.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Va?

Alotta?

[Damage In Tolland]

This place in 10 short hours today , went from whines, fights , and death threats , to happy endings being handed out to each other 

[78Blizzard]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

4-6"?

No way.

The taint lasts only a few hours at most, and then only after a big front end, with more on the back end.

[weatherwiz]

I've been screaming for some more southern stream involvement to change up our luck so I hope this does it. Also, keep in mind we're likely to see some wavering between "storm" and "no storm" over the next 2-3 days because of how critical a phase is and we'll likely continue to see some inconsistency from model-to-model and run-to-run regarding this. But probably beginning 12z models Tuesday...we want to start seeing consistency with a great phase and track.

[Typhoon Tip]

was just reminiscing.  on jan 4, 2015 we were facing jack shit in guidance.   not sure if the tele's were quite even lit up yet.   abysmality ruled the days and bruised up red-headed step children...

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said:

Get near my taint and I lasts a few moments at most, and then I have a big front end, for a pretty boy with more on the back end.

Happy New Year?

[klw]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This place in 10 short hours today , went from whines, fights , and death threats , to happy endings being handed out to each other 

So a normal Saturday in winter in these parts.

[CoastalWx]

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This place in 10 short hours today , went from whines, fights , and death threats , to happy endings being handed out to each other 

It’s still way out there