Jester January

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yup..I’ve developed a bald spot.

Where? Top of head or temples?

[ineedsnow]

3 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Surprised you didn't used the Kuchie... That was pure eye candy

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

kuchie is almost always overdone with any storm.. not that the other map will verify either lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

kuchie is almost always overdone with any storm.. not that the other map will verify either lol

Kutchie works better in deformation zones.

[Patrick-02540]

26 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Anything less than that is going to be a disappointment.  Let's go biblical, MFers!

[Heisy]

When you enter the subform, shit is getting real-

This is my true home in another life. Definitely cool that the there’s a bunch of eps members that look like the GFS


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[Heisy]

Storm hits down here on Saturday, could be interesting if the Eagles playoff game is scheduled for then, for those who like football in the snow


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[Allsnow]

5 minutes ago, Heisy said:

This is my true home in another life. Definitely cool that the there’s a bunch of eps members that look like the GFS


.

Today’s ensembles rebuilding the -nao and -epo in the 11-15day 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yea, that EURO closes off 12 hours sooner and its one for the record books-

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Today’s ensembles rebuilding the -nao and -epo in the 11-15day 

Should provide a lot of chances going into the second half of January if that verifies. Ridge will be offshore so there’s going to be more cutter risk, however, the NAO will help with that and there’s a lot of cold available. Prob some SWFEs in that look too. 

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Should provide a lot of chances going into the second half of January if that verifies. Ridge will be offshore so there’s going to be more cutter risk, however, the NAO will help with that and there’s a lot of cold available. Prob some SWFEs in that look too. 

EPS has some retrograding Scandi ridging going on which is always nice when trying to reload a -NAO

[mahk_webstah]

11 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Storm hits down here on Saturday, could be interesting if the Eagles playoff game is scheduled for then, for those who like football in the snow


.

I hope we know the schedule tomorrow. I don’t have to wait until after wildcard weekend. Don’t the Eagles get a week off and then play the following weekend? I’m gonna come down for one playoff game, just not sure which one. May depend on the storm.

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Should provide a lot of chances going into the second half of January if that verifies. Ridge will be offshore so there’s going to be more cutter risk, however, the NAO will help with that and there’s a lot of cold available. Prob some SWFEs in that look too. 

Yeah, after the jet ext everything starts to rebuild. This is a perfect time for your perfect storm gif “she’s not gonna let us out” 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

EPS has some retrograding Scandi ridging going on which is always nice when trying to reload a -NAO

Yeah I was mentioning the other day that this type of NAO is usually more favorable for our region. It still allows room to pin low heights in the 50/50 region but it’s not so overwhelming that it suppresses everything. That type of NAO is also less likely to link up with a SE ridge too because it’s coming from the wrong direction for that. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yeah, after the jet ext everything starts to rebuild. This is a perfect time for your perfect storm gif “she’s not gonna let us out” 

I’ll only post that if the 1/10-1/15 period fails. 

[Greg]

30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Get it to max near ACK

Absolutely! 

[Typhoon Tip]

36 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Splitting the difference would prob be good. Euro doesn’t go nuclear until Maine on the OP run. GFS maxes out down near NYC. 

that's a specific aspect i've noted about the gfs' handling of cyclogen in the past.  if/when it finally gets around to admitting there's a low developing, it tends to generate it too quickly.  it's like even middling low pressures go through an ri phase

[78Blizzard]

Not to be a debbie downer, but the red flag that I see is that both the GFS op and the Euro op are far west outliers when you look at the ensemble members.  In fact, they are just about all alone in those depictions.  Let's see if the ops hold in the next couple of runs.  I'm looking at the Pivotal maps for the members.

[ORH_wxman]

EPS ensembles. Still some work to do but a big improvement. 
 

 

[H2Otown_WX]

2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Not to be a debbie downer, but the red flag that I see is that both the GFS op and the Euro op are far west outliers when you look at the ensemble members.  In fact, they are just about all alone in those depictions.  Let's see if the ops hold in the next couple of runs.  I'm looking at the Pivotal maps for the members.

Not to be a Debbie Downer, but all the GFS has done is tease us with ridiculous BECS solutions over the last 3 weeks only to pull the rug out the next run. Theres nothing about this setup that looks less precarious with a positively tilted trough axis and confluence pressing down. Then we are relying on the southern s/w to eject at the right time. Too many moving parts imo.

[Typhoon Tip]

 

so there's a lot of differences in how the euro and gfs ( operationals ) get it done.   that's not necessarily a detraction from 180 hours out in this case, because the principle players and interactions are essentially the same.  that's important.  that suspends the mere coincidence. 

i feel like these runs are a snap shot along a trend.   like trying to judge a portrait while the artist is only part of the way into the illustration.  

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Not to be a Debbie Downer, but all the GFS has done is tease us with ridiculous BECS solutions over the last 3 weeks only to pull the rug out the next run. Theres nothing about this setup that looks less precarious with a positively tilted trough axis and confluence pressing down. Then we are relying on the southern s/w to eject at the right time. Too many moving parts imo.

But to be fair, these were op run solutions beyond 10 days out. I mean, I can’t get mad at that.
what has been frustrating is that nothing seem to be materializing although perhaps we’ll have something in seven or eight days.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS ensembles. Still some work to do but a big improvement. 
 

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...

...

 

that 970 mb low a flipped over cargo ship's distance off montauk point doesn't need any more improvement.   lol -

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

But to be fair, these were op run solutions beyond 10 days out. I mean, I can’t get mad at that.
what has been frustrating is that nothing seem to be materializing although perhaps we’ll have something in seven or eight days.

True. I’d rather be looking at this though at range than cold/dry, and the general signal for high end potential has remained for the better part of a week now so that’s a reason to be slightly more optimistic that a storm is a real possibility. 

[Volcanic Winter]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yet ..the euro's even leaving a lot on the table ...

look at this slope back from negative interference - it's clearly having trouble with this 9/10/11 period of time.   they all have been -

This rings true as an issue during the 1/29/22 storm as well, models were consistently leaving energy back in the leadup making forecasting that storm a challenge. In the end, I think it did end up taking most of the available energy and phased into a bomb.. Not sure how much relevance that event has with this one, but it popped into my brain because that image looks remarkably similar.

[78Blizzard]

Fwiw (probably not much), the Canadian ensembles have nothing even resembling a storm on the 11-12th. And the op had a weak low out near Bermuda.

 

And uncle had most of the qpf heading to Bermuda as well.

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

True. I’d rather be looking at this though at range than cold/dry, and the general signal for high end potential has remained for the better part of a week now so that’s a reason to be slightly more optimistic that a storm is a real possibility. 

Yeah given the last two runs or so have trends I think this has some validity to it. Still in wait and see mode for a few more days. 

[Patrick-02540]

2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Fwiw (probably not much), the Canadian ensembles have nothing even resembling a storm on the 11-12th. And the op had a weak low out near Bermuda.

 

And uncle had most of the qpf heading to Bermuda as well.

That's exactly what we want to see from them at this point in time. 

[cleetussnow]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

ah we're all friends. it's all good.    don't take myself that serously

anyway, i wanna also point out that as Brook' and Sey Mour' and i were mentioning of the 00z run, it was missing a capture and much bigger ordeal by a very narrow margin.

this one?  doesn't miss. 

it's really just a point of emphasis run really.

I was also on that bus.  Last night was thisclose.  Today its closer.  I don’t have a red tag but just toggling you could see it clear as day trending.

[ORH_wxman]

14 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Fwiw (probably not much), the Canadian ensembles have nothing even resembling a storm on the 11-12th. And the op had a weak low out near Bermuda.

 

And uncle had most of the qpf heading to Bermuda as well.

Much rather have those two models showing garbage than the GFS/Euro showing that. We’ll see if we get some more agreement at 00z. 

[moneypitmike]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

 

Are you posting for Primashine?

 

Just where we want to be 7 days out.