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Prismshine Productions

By Prismshine Productions,
in New England

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dendrite
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ORH_wxman
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Northern stream is def a bit better on EPS but when it's not enough to produce the big dog, you are still going to get overwhelming majority of members out to sea....this is what I'm talking about wit

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
53 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Excellent response, and IMO, clearly presented.  Perchance, is this your field?

no ... it's not, but thanks. 

i write outside of this medium, however.  sometimes in helps.   sometimes it should have helped, but just didn't  <_<  

but i also spend a lot of nerdy time embedded in the extents cosmology .. to the minute quantum mechanics, and just about any other science in between that range.  just interested ... 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Lack of cross-guidance support makes the 1/11 threat pretty low probability at the moment. GFS is the one model that wants to not bury so much energy southwest. Ukie and Canadian weren’t too far off. I fully expect the euro to bury this to Cabo because it loves doing that. 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
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36 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Thanks Dr Ray.  But Plenty here breed tension…I’m not unreasonable by any means.  Have a great weekend.  

JD...some helpful advice....emojis are a pretty good barometer of the general board sentiment...notice most of your contributions to this exchange end up with excrement attached to them?? This is a solid sign that your posting style is breeding the most tension.

You have a great weekend, as well.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ensembles have a storm signal but pretty far offshore. Workable I guess. Op was definitely a wild member.

bun me if one needs to ...i have little left to protect ... but i don't think the solution is altogether terrible.  

i spent time going over this this morning - what's amusing is that i specifically pointed out that the better timed expulsion of the southern wave, out of the sw, was less likely, because leaving that behind is actually a better fit for the western ridge ..etc..etc.   in my defense, however, this run makes my point.

the entire sensitivity pretty much comes/came down to the amount of stream interaction and if/when there'd actually be a s component to this thing.  in principle, the run isn't bad in that space.

course it doesn't mean it's going to happen, either.. just sayn'

the gefs mean is a huge trend potentially though. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

bun me if one needs to ...i have little left to protect ... but i don't think the solution is altogether terrible.  

i spent time going over this this morning - what's amusing is that i specifically pointed out that the better timed expulsion of the southern wave, out of the sw, was less likely, because leaving that behind is actually a better fit for the western ridge ..etc..etc.   in my defense, however, this run makes my point.

the entire sensitivity pretty much comes/came down to the amount of stream interaction and if/when there'd actually be a s component to this thing.  in principle, the run isn't bad in that space

I agree that I think it’s somewhat likely a larger storm occurs if you eject and phase that southern stream considering how meridional the northern steam is. Almost every single solution that phases it has been pretty huge going back a week when it was out at D14-15. 

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

JD...some helpful advice....emojis are a pretty good barometer of the general board sentiment...notice most of your contributions to this exchange end up with excrement attached to them?? This is a solid sign that your posting style is breeding the most tension.

You have a great weekend, as well.

Wow..lol.  I’ll have to start emoji-ing the excrement sign more often I guess.  Cuz there’s lot of that here, that I just most times  let go.  But thanks again.   
 

 

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Posted
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7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

GFS has been atrocious this winter . It had that cane of 38 run the other day and next run was sunny and cold 

Like I have said for a couple of days...odds are against this one, but more of a shot with this than the one this weekend...we watch.

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Posted
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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Wow..lol.  I’ll have to start emoji-ing the excrement sign more often I guess.  Cuz there’s lot of that here, that I just most times  let go.  But thanks again.   
 

 

My initial sarcastic response to you wasn't helpful, either...I accept responsibility for that. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

bun me if one needs to ...i have little left to protect ... but i don't think the solution is altogether terrible.  

i spent time going over this this morning - what's amusing is that i specifically pointed out that the better timed expulsion of the southern wave, out of the sw, was less likely, because leaving that behind is actually a better fit for the western ridge ..etc..etc.   in my defense, however, this run makes my point.

the entire sensitivity pretty much comes/came down to the amount of stream interaction and if/when there'd actually be a s component to this thing.  in principle, the run isn't bad in that space.

course it doesn't mean it's going to happen, either.. just sayn'

the gefs mean is a huge trend potentially though. 

Yeah, I think we all agree on that point of a storm either will or won’t happen depending on how that energy behaves to the southwest.

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Posted
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13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

bun me if one needs to ...i have little left to protect ... but i don't think the solution is altogether terrible.  

i spent time going over this this morning - what's amusing is that i specifically pointed out that the better timed expulsion of the southern wave, out of the sw, was less likely, because leaving that behind is actually a better fit for the western ridge ..etc..etc.   in my defense, however, this run makes my point.

the entire sensitivity pretty much comes/came down to the amount of stream interaction and if/when there'd actually be a s component to this thing.  in principle, the run isn't bad in that space.

course it doesn't mean it's going to happen, either.. just sayn'

the gefs mean is a huge trend potentially though. 

Appears as though Kev needed to lol

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