Jester January

[kazimirkai]

At least with this sort of pattern the northern Greens get some significant up-slope totals over the next two weeks even if there are no systems. I don't ski but I imagine that would make someone happy

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, kazimirkai said:

At least with this sort of pattern the northern Greens get some significant up-slope totals over the next two weeks even if there are no systems. I don't ski but I imagine that would make someone happy

Paging @40/70 Benchmark …

[Bryan63]

1 hour ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Is there anywhere else in the country having a snowy winter  this year or is this deficit a more widespread (country wide) phenomenon?

I haven't looked at snowfall maps but every time I am constantly seeing posts about snow in the Boone and Beech Mountain areas of NC. Seems like the hills down there are having a decent year so far.

[Spanks45]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Bernoulli’s law lol. GL forecasting with that…

We cooked down here.....It's going to snow again, but instead of discussing above or below average for snowfall we will be discussing the over or under of 20 inches. Sad times, but we might as well get used to it

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Spanks45 said:

We cooked down here.....It's going to snow again, but instead of discussing above or below average for snowfall we will be discussing the over or under of 20 inches. Sad times, but we might as well get used to it

It’s the new norm. 7-8 BN seasons per decade with 2-3 AN seasons.

[Spanks45]

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s the new norm. 7-8 BN seasons per decade with 2-3 AN seasons.

We want to say its the 80s all over again....the results maybe the same, how we are getting there is a whole different story, though some want to ignore those facts. I'm all for using analogs, but they just aren't very useful anymore unless we have some from at least a billion years ago, then again there was most likely a supercontinent and they wouldn't matter either.....Anyways, hopefully it snows soon

[40/70 Benchmark]

27 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Paging @40/70 Benchmark …

Tremendous consolation....phew.

[Great Snow 1717]

5 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

We want to say its the 80s all over again....the results maybe the same, how we are getting there is a whole different story, though some want to ignore those facts. I'm all for using analogs, but they just aren't very useful anymore unless we have some from at least a billion years ago, then again there was most likely a supercontinent and they wouldn't matter either.....Anyways, hopefully it snows soon

I've been saying the same for several years. It's like comparing QB's from the 60's and 70's to current day QB's. It is important to understand how the "stats" during the analog years were compiled...the background matters and must be taken into consideration but it is often disregarded.

[Layman]

8 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

We want to say its the 80s all over again....the results maybe the same, how we are getting there is a whole different story, though some want to ignore those facts. I'm all for using analogs, but they just aren't very useful anymore unless we have some from at least a billion years ago, then again there was most likely a supercontinent and they wouldn't matter either.....Anyways, hopefully it snows soon

Our observed and recorded weather data set is so infinitesimally small in the grand scheme that it sometimes seems ridiculous to refer to our current "norms" and "averages".  Maybe the past thousand years would be something that's more manageable from a recency-biased perspective of norms and averages.  Hard telling.  From my perspective, 40-100 years doesn't even scratch the surface but it's what we've got to work with.   

[Great Snow 1717]

11 minutes ago, Layman said:

Our observed and recorded weather data set is so infinitesimally small in the grand scheme that it sometimes seems ridiculous to refer to our current "norms" and "averages".  Maybe the past thousand years would be something that's more manageable from a recency-biased perspective of norms and averages.  Hard telling.  From my perspective, 40-100 years doesn't even scratch the surface but it's what we've got to work with.   

I've long thought the "norms" and "averages" should come from the entire dataset from a reporting station. Using the so called 30 year averages is senseless. A complete waste of time because much of the data is not used in coming up with a norm/average.

[WinterWolf]

20 minutes ago, Layman said:

Our observed and recorded weather data set is so infinitesimally small in the grand scheme that it sometimes seems ridiculous to refer to our current "norms" and "averages".  Maybe the past thousand years would be something that's more manageable from a recency-biased perspective of norms and averages.  Hard telling.  From my perspective, 40-100 years doesn't even scratch the surface but it's what we've got to work with.   

This.  And in the end who really gives a shit anyway, as long as it snows at some point again this winter.   Which it will.  

[mahk_webstah]

2 hours ago, Zeus said:

I'll let you know.

I thought you were in jersey 

[bwt3650]

2 hours ago, mreaves said:

Well, some of Vermont has some snow. The ski areas along the spine are ok but you don’t have to move far to drop significantly. 

Yeah, understood.  I was referring to DIT comment about skiing.  The upslope areas are the ones loaded.

[Zeus]

9 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I thought you were in jersey 

I was. I moved.

[Dan76]

 

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, wx2fish said:

Euro showing a little more interest in that system than 0z 

Yeah it was a little delayed…more like 1/13 on the euro but that looked interesting with the ejecting energy from SW. Ended up being a DC/PHL system this run but wouldn’t take much to make it interesting here. Funny how the euro is burying the energy far more than other guidance….I don’t know the stats these days on it but I wonder if it continues to carry the longtime bias of burying energy in the southwest. 

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Is there anywhere else in the country having a snowy winter  this year or is this deficit a more widespread (country wide) phenomenon?

Obviously places here and there always stand out, especially a few lake effect snow locations this year (Gaylord and Sault Ste Marie, MI), but as a whole, snowfall is down in a huge majority of the country. Lots of flakes but not much to show for it here. I am at 6.2" on the season with my largest fall so far 1.5" (Detroit area). Its a bad pattern for almost all of the upper midwest, lakes, and new england. I am ALWAYS beating the drum that pattern/systems are more important than temps, and this pattern is a great example why. Undoubtedly better times lie ahead this winter...but they cant get here soon enough. 

[Patrick-02540]

This is what we're left with.  Littered with crushed beer cans, weekly flyers, and an old lady's tattered leather glove.  
Courtesy: Shoprite Plaza, Southbury, CT

[cleetussnow]

9 minutes ago, Patrick-02540 said:

This is what we're left with.  Littered with crushed beer cans, weekly flyers, and an old lady's tattered leather glove.  
Courtesy: Shoprite Plaza, Southbury, CT

lovely.

[Layman]

24 minutes ago, Patrick-02540 said:

This is what we're left with.  Littered with crushed beer cans, weekly flyers, and an old lady's tattered leather glove.  
Courtesy: Shoprite Plaza, Southbury, CT

It’s a beaut!

is that a TRX I spy…?

[Go Kart Mozart]

36 minutes ago, Patrick-02540 said:

This is what we're left with.  Littered with crushed beer cans, weekly flyers, and an old lady's tattered leather glove.  
Courtesy: Shoprite Plaza, Southbury, CT

That's Currier and Ives stuff right there.

[Go Kart Mozart]

Funny little stall-out for the Delmarva with NAM.

[Chrisrotary12]

3 hours ago, dendrite said:

I threw it in last Feb and then got pounded with multiple heavy wet snow events in March and April.

Sucks for you. I think I played golf 1st week of April.

[MJO812]

[DJln491]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Mid Atlantic might continue to cash in

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cold/dry to warm/wet?

[MJO812]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Cold/dry to warm/wet?

Weird right 

[Lava Rock]

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

lol, right on que for the above normal temps. see you in Feb

[WxWatcher007]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Weird right 

At the risk of being admonished for not being positive enough, I’m kidding, for the record. 

We just need to get as many swings as possible. If we completely whiff, which I still doubt we will, it is what it is. By whiff I mean no region wide warning level event. 

[ORH_wxman]

Anytime you see BN temps in NYC/NJ and AN in NNE in January, that is not a rain threat here.