Jester January

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Why would it make it more common for ridge linkage? You’d need the heights in the mid-latitude band to be rising faster than the heights in the arctic to make that true….otherwise you just get the same exact pattern as 1996 except everything is just up 10 or 20dm if the heights are rising together in similar magnitude. We’ve had excellent -PNA/-NAO patterns relatively recently (portions of 2016-17 come to mind and even the massive Mar 2018 snowgasm was -PNA/-NAO) 

 

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Not sure what you’re getting at here. Height anomalies are higher, but that doesn’t necessarily mean more ridging. Just think of it as having December H5 climo during January. 

This is true. But I did see some pretty convincing composites from Bluewave. I guess we will have to see how much this secondary nadir of the Pac cold phase has biased things.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Also, I never meant that every RNA/neg NAO pattern would do that, either....ovviously the individual patterns matter...just that its possible its becoming more prevalent. 

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Bufkit roars with 60+ possible 

This is one of the more impressive wind signals we've had in a while I think. The trees are bare so that limits damage potential but there will be some power outages and downed trees. 

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

This is true. But I did see some pretty convincing composites from Bluewave. I guess we will have to see how much this secondary nadir of the Pac cold phase has biased things.

It’s an empirical fact we’ve seen more of the huge SE ridge linking with a -NAO the pst few years but just because that part is true, it doesn’t mean it’s true going forward or that a warmer climate caused it. 
 

Im always cautious in attributing largely stochastic features to a particular variable. 
 

So much of our snow blitzes in the 2000s/2010s came from that -NAO/-PNA couplet despite heights being noticeably higher than the 1960s when we saw a bunch of similar snow blitzes on that couplet. 

[ineedsnow]

I wish I got a better shot of the bigger virga producing cloud it looked amazing in person with four streams from one cloud.  

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This is one of the more impressive wind signals we've had in a while I think. The trees are bare so that limits damage potential but there will be some power outages and downed trees. 

60 is the general threshold for bigger damage with no leaves. NW winds don’t do as much damage as SSE gusts since trees are more accustomed to NW direction . But you’ll see a lot of white pines snapped if areas see 60+

[Prismshine Productions]

5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I wish I got a better shot of the bigger virga producing cloud it looked amazing in person with four streams from one cloud.  

saw the same up here on the way home from the store... it was amazing 

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, Prismshine Productions said:

saw the same up here on the way home from the store... it was amazing 

Ya it was awesome!! Probably one of the cooler cloud formations I've ever seen

[weathafella]

36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I just said it isn't just two years. I've seen the composites. 

Ok I missed that but does a 15 year trend override 150 years of data?  What CC model would freeze California and warm New England?  I honestly don’t know and I’m sure CC is real and alarming but not sure the 15 year nao trend is related.  

[HoarfrostHubb]

8 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I wish I got a better shot of the bigger virga producing cloud it looked amazing in person with four streams from one cloud.  

Ha!   I was just looking at those same clouds as I was walking around my neighborhood 

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

60 is the general threshold for bigger damage with no leaves. NW winds don’t do as much damage as SSE gusts since trees are more accustomed to NW direction . But you’ll see a lot of white pines snapped if areas see 60+

made a thread! 

Who doesn't want to begin the year with damage

[Prismshine Productions]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Ya it was awesome!! Probably one of the cooler cloud formations I've ever seen

honestly my focus today isnt even on weather, college football is on so watching the Citrus Bowl

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, Prismshine Productions said:

honestly my focus today isnt even on weather, college football is on so watching the Citrus Bowl

Go Gamecocks 

[ineedsnow]

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Ha!   I was just looking at those same clouds as I was walking around my neighborhood 

Lol took those down the road at Narragansett best view I thought of that was close by 

[Prismshine Productions]

13 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Go Gamecocks 

HELL YEAH

[Prismshine Productions]

wtf is this Icon...

[40/70 Benchmark]

33 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Ok I missed that but does a 15 year trend override 150 years of data?  What CC model would freeze California and warm New England?  I honestly don’t know and I’m sure CC is real and alarming but not sure the 15 year nao trend is related.  

No, I'm not saying CC caused the record RNA.

[40/70 Benchmark]

32 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

honestly my focus today isnt even on weather, college football is on so watching the Citrus Bowl

TWZ marathon for me.

[DJln491]

more high winds for CT huh? I’ll be sure to batten down the hatches 

[moneypitmike]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The 6th has a better chance than the 11th with Arctic air firmly in place then. I’d

 

 

 

implore folks to not give up 

 

[weathafella]

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, I'm not saying CC caused the record RNA.

Ok got it.  It will be interesting if the trend continues over the next 15 years.  Good chance I’ll never know…

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, weathafella said:

Ok got it.  It will be interesting if the trend continues over the next 15 years.  Good chance I’ll never know…

You should....75?

 

..

[Prismshine Productions]

little less confluence on the GFS through 108 (watching it during commercial breaks)

 

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

little less confluence on the GFS through 108 (watching it during commercial breaks)

 

Like Iconic 

[weathafella]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You should....75?

 

..

78.  I’m doing everything I can so we’ll see.

[dendrite]

8 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

(watching it during commercial breaks)

 

[Go Kart Mozart]

Is this a bit of a squally look for our region?

[dendrite]

A little less confluence…going back the last 5 cycles the off hour runs have had less confluence than 00/12z. Maybe it’s just coincidence.

In the end it doesn’t move the needle for us. We need a lot more work to get it up here.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

During comm breaks…riiiiight.

[Typhoon Tip]

massive changes on the 18z gfs wrt the 10th-ish potential thru 220 hrs