Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: folks ... don't get confused. we're not discussing 'getting an event' out of 1/6 ... we're strictly identifying limitations ( actually..) and therein, how longs shots might overcome. there's difference there We are getting an event Sun nite/ Monday . At least SNE and maybe CNE 1 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Less each run. This one’s easy to forecast Except the confluence was decidedly stronger on the GFS....ICON is was weaker. Canadian was a bit stronger with confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Kiss the one after goodbye too on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Literally N-S flow at 500 out west and the PV sitting on our face. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Except the confluence was decidedly stronger on the GFS....ICON is was weaker. Canadian was a bit stronger with confluence. Toss gfs . You know how these go . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Just now, CoastalWx said: Literally N-S flow at 500 out west and the PV sitting on our face. We want that PV west. Having it sit over us would basically be 10-14 days of cold/dry. Epic pond skating. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 It’s Tuesday morning. It’s got 4-5 days of north trending to do 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Literally N-S flow at 500 out west and the PV sitting on our face. ..outside of that it is a direct hit for SNE and CNE... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Just now, ORH_wxman said: We want that PV west. Having it sit over us would basically be 10-14 days of cold/dry. Epic pond skating. Suppression depression. Too much of a good thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: We want that PV west. Having it sit over us would basically be 10-14 days of cold/dry. Epic pond skating. Might be one of these METARS coming soon from KLWM if that happens:KLWM 111551Z 30020G30KT 10SM FEW090 SCT150 BKN210 M09/M12 A2993 RMK FU NW-NE 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 12z OPs trending to boredom. the 6z EURO-AI was dreadful - At least there's still plenty of time for that confluence to loosen a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 The gfs giving snow to the oil rigs in the gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 75 pages of posts about January before we end December… Impressive! Hey, if it’s cold, we will have chances. Still better than overcast and 40’s. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Ukie is still amped....was the most amped at 00z too. It still has confluence problems though at the last second. Does get maybe 2-4" into most of SNE....less further northeast abd maybe a bit more in SW CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Ukie is still amped....was the most amped at 00z too. It still has confluence problems though at the last second. Does get maybe 2-4" into most of SNE....less further northeast abd maybe a bit more in SW CT. And usually is very suppress happy . Another warning signal not to be ignored 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Gotta love this solution for 306H on the GFS: The entire state of Tennessee is colder then the entire state of Wisconsin. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: And usually is very suppress happy . Another warning signal not to be ignored 0z was better 12z meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 can we ban posting snow maps beyond 5 days out??? 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: can we ban posting snow maps beyond 5 days out??? ... in here? that question is equivalent to rollin up to a crack house and asking the people inside the crack house if they'd mind not actually doing the crack ... 2 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 I remember living in Delaware during the 2009-10 season. Watching the confluence get weaker within 72 hrs to allow the precip shield to come further north on multiple events. In one event I recall it was too much and we ended up with a tainted mess instead of a snowstorm. Hopefully that is what we are doing here in SNE this time around.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: ... that question is like rollin up to a crack house and asking the people inside the crack house if they don't mind actually not doing the crack ... crack may actually have more value than snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 13 minutes ago, ariof said: Gotta love this solution for 306H on the GFS: The entire state of Tennessee is colder then the entire state of Wisconsin. The cold air sweeps down from Canada right down the middle of the country and goes right, this cold is going right south, like to get it more north to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 So much confluence seeing AN surface temps showing up in eastern NH and Maine now. Without a pack in the region it’s definitely believable. I’ll happily take that over the severe cold and dry I was looking at a few days ago…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 12 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: I remember living in Delaware during the 2009-10 season. Watching the confluence get weaker within 72 hrs to allow the precip shield to come further north on multiple events. In one event I recall it was too much and we ended up with a tainted mess instead of a snowstorm. Hopefully that is what we are doing here in SNE this time around.... Well I remember living HERE during the 2009-2010 season and it was the most frustrating meteorological experience of my life. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 19 minutes ago, ariof said: Gotta love this solution for 306H on the GFS: The entire state of Tennessee is colder then the entire state of Wisconsin. It’s pretty much what you should expect in significant -NAO/-AO pattern which is being clearly telegraphed on guidance now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 I really hope the 8th-12th time frame can pan something out. I don't feel very confident or very good about our prospects once the pattern relaxes. I feel like most of the bullets will have been used up by then and once the pattern relaxes its an inactive storm track. But hopefully the relax of the pattern will come with another reload and not a relaxation then do a warmer pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: It’s pretty much what you should expect in significant -NAO/-AO pattern which is being clearly telegraphed on guidance now. The NAO is an unwelcome development relative to my expectation for January last fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well I remember living HERE during the 2009-2010 season and it was the most frustrating meteorological experience of my life. These last 3 seasons make 09-10 feeling like 14-15. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Looks like great black ice pond skating weather. Did that a few times in the 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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