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Jester January

Prismshine Productions

By Prismshine Productions,
in New England

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dendrite
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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman
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ORH_wxman

Pattern does get a lot more active after the 3rd/4th it seems.    I think most people have a hard time conceptually understanding good pattern/bad pattern discourse from a probabilistic standpo

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drstuess

drstuess

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On the topic of forecast accuracy, gfs forecast for the waves today has been as bad/off as I have seen in a while. This is comparing the buoy (line trace) to the latest GFS forecast for now. South swells often are late, so see if it fills in, but horrible so far.699d75fb0a776b16ad79d8efbe731b26.jpg

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ROOSTA

ROOSTA

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Please refrain from posting maps that have 0.00% chance of verifying. A D10 has 0.01%, even a D5 only has a 50/50 chance. A day after snow map is still only 99% accurate. LOL
D10 Ensemble Temp is ok but be ready to explain reasoning.

Wanna talk about nice weather? It's 75F with a dew of 68F. Talk abounds about the FRIGID Arctic outbreak down here. 

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FXWX

FXWX

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54 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not get overly emotional on 200 hour OP runs? I can't force people to not get emotional and melt down, but it's legitimately irrational that amount of weight the OP runs get at that time lead. People can wait an hour and look at ensembles. 

But to each his own....

Will... One of these days you're going to get yourself banned for being too rational... Lol... 

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

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5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This is going to feel like the longest two weeks ever. We still have like another 5-6 days before that period gets around D5 :lol: 

Yes and no..I feel that way a lot too. But for some reason this go around, I’m enjoying the myriad of different ideas and looks that have popped up. Im obviously Not expecting to cash in on all the potential, but I don’t know why, but I’m feeling some how we come out of this period decently.  

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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1/2 is rain for sne .. .but, there's room/concern there for elevations of cne, with more column blue snow possibilities in maine

1/6 is a sub-index system .. i like to refer to those as maintenance events.  as it leaves, the polar-arctic hybrid air floods in its wake, engulfing all of the np-gl-eventually ov and ma regions.  that sets stage for the 8/9/10 arena ...

8/9/10 .. 11 still looms largely in the telecon/interpretation. this has been the case for a week now, with a very bright beacon.  the recent operational gfs ( vastly too early to indict ...) runs have been oscillating between extraordinary solutions ... followed almost immediately upon the next run cycle, by almost nothing.   this 12z run with a 990 mb closed sfc pressure contour that is the size of nearly tx, while at the same time ...essentially missing any event,  is a ginormous warning flag for explosive potential.   what i'm looking at in these operational runs is "too much of a good thing"  you actually don't need 504 dm spv to subsume into the mid latitude flow in order to create something special.   what's happening is that there is too much d(gz) between 40 N and the gom.   that delta/excessive gradient is causing the s/stream s/w to rocket around the southern arc of the diving spv, at too fast of a rate ... so what ends up happening is that it outpaces - the prey runs faster than the predator.  

you can coherently see this slipping bipass between the s aspect ...out pacing the spv.   the spv ends up deepening by non linear constructive feedback, with no help from cyclogen because the s stream trigger long gone. 

there are two competing cons trying to steal what is really just a fantastic opportunity.   obviously, the winter enthusiasts among us with rather they both fail... but the first is, this tendency to over slope the heights in the mid latitude/velocity saturation thing is real.   that's A.   B, the models also have an amplitude bias in this d7-11 range.   it's difficult to parse out if/and/or how much of either A or B is delimiting this thing...  luckily for us, there is no real responsibility to correctness by any guidance beyond day 8 - it's really just a fun thing that we're even given those range.   the telecon and the ensemble-based super synoptic indicators are really the most important aspect in that range.   

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Yes and no..I feel that way a lot too. But for some reason this go around, I’m enjoying the myriad of different ideas and looks that have popped up. Im obviously Not expecting to cash in on all the potential, but I don’t know why, but I’m feeling some how we come out of this period decently.  

I really hope it works. Even if it doesn't we still have the rest of the month and February (even March) which can always deliver but if this winter ends up another dud...then I really hope we can start stringing together some neutral ENSO years. The entire atmosphere just needs to be flushed. This back-and-forth of Nino/Nina sucks. I bet if we had the neutral ENSO background state and got the good PAC/Arctic looks we would be cashing in handsomely or at least having seasons closer to average.

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Prismshine Productions

Prismshine Productions

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I heard someone say today that it feels like spring is arriving early. Little do they know…
Had a rule of thumb growing up in South Carolina that my grandparents taught me:

"If it feels like Spring around New Years (which meant, for my childhood area, 70s) a big winter storm is around the corner and winter is returning worse than it left"

It most certainly feels like Spring today (58°)

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

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5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I really hope it works. Even if it doesn't we still have the rest of the month and February (even March) which can always deliver but if this winter ends up another dud...then I really hope we can start stringing together some neutral ENSO years. The entire atmosphere just needs to be flushed. This back-and-forth of Nino/Nina sucks. I bet if we had the neutral ENSO background state and got the good PAC/Arctic looks we would be cashing in handsomely or at least having seasons closer to average.

I hear ya Paul.  Lots of potential, so just enjoy the modeling as we are still a week out at least.  

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Snowcrazed71

Snowcrazed71

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7 minutes ago, Patrick-02540 said:

I love his disclaimer 22 seconds before the end of the video.  

This guy is the biggest clown. Every one of his videos starts off with either a massive storm or historic storm in the making or Arctic cold coming down ( he started talking about Arctic air coming down back in October like it was a big freaking Arctic outbreak ).

Just let's do a couple of his videos and you'll see what I mean. I'm sure he loves the weather like we do, but for someone who is naive, he would surely make them cream their pants 10 times over, and it would all be for nothing

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