Jester January

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, weathafella said:

wtf is Skynet?  I thought it was a media company. 

Didn't you watch the Terminator and Terminator 2 years ago? Skynet is the AI computer that becomes self-aware and tries to destroy humanity.

[weatherwiz]

32 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

This period will define the winter. If this fails to produce bigtime, its going to be another shitty season.

Agreed, without turning this into another Friday night posting disaster, I won't say much else but it will scare me if we're going into mid-January with one legit "threat". I just don't like how chaotic everything looks within the longwave pattern...it's not a smooth pattern (if that makes sense). I get the ensembles are the way to go in the medium-to-extend range but sometimes the smoothing done by the ensembles is not a good thing, especially when there is too much chaos on-hand. 

Think back to was it 2010 and then again in 2013 when we had those epic stretches...we had a beautiful longwave pattern but there wasn't a whole hell of a lot of chaos. I thought about it like a railroad track...you have the longwave pattern (train tracks) and then a steady supply of shortwaves (the train) with little destructive interference. This...just looks like a chaotic mess. When I see that it just leads me to believe that you really only have one legit shot at something. That's why I was saying cold/dry with the one potential in the 10th-12th when there looked to be the most favorable alignment of teleconnections. 

[iceman1]

56 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Eh, only reason I am throwing it out there is to show there are still more chances

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

looks like alot of rain moving up in to ct 

 

[WinterWolf]

It was 2011.

A few days ago you were worried about no shortwaves being around. I said that’s probably not a bad thing due to exactly what you’re saying now.   Now we’re seeing more active solutions, with shortwaves kind of making things chaotic as you say.    
 

Things will emerge more clearly as the time moves forward. We are still a week away from any initial system possibility, and the other one after that is 12 days out.  Modeling is trying to resolve the differences at this stage…hang tough. At least we have the action showing up now. A few days back there was no action lol. 

[WinterWolf]

As far as the Mid Atlantic goes…those poor guys have had it even worse than us the last while. Pretty much Nothing down there.  So if we’re just looking at the averages…they are as Due as it gets down that way. So they’ll probably be grabbing some too…let’s just hope it isn’t a 2010 shut out for us up in NE, and we all can share in the fun. But the risk is there. Although my gut tells me we will get in on some of this cake as we head into the new year.  

[Snowcrazed71]

10 minutes ago, iceman1 said:

looks like alot of rain moving up in to ct 

 

This is the January thread.  Not December 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It was 2011.

A few days ago you were worried about no shortwaves being around. I said that’s probably not a bad thing due to exactly what you’re saying now.   Now we’re seeing more active solutions, with shortwaves kind of making things chaotic as you say.    
 

Things will emerge more clearly as the time moves forward. We are still a week away from any initial system possibility, and the other one after that is 12 days out.  Modeling is trying to resolve the differences at this stage…hang tough. At least we have the action showing up now. A few days back there was no action lol. 

A few days ago though we were really only going out until around the 10th or 11th on the OP. It is becoming more active with shortwaves after that period but everything is a chaotic mess and yes...not uncommon given its way out there but outside of this Wednesday/Thursday (which isn't fun for anyone except the moose up north) we have to go well into the first week of January before there's even something remotely possible to track and even then could be playing with fire. 

[Kitz Craver]

21 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Agreed, without turning this into another Friday night posting disaster, I won't say much else but it will scare me if we're going into mid-January with one legit "threat". I just don't like how chaotic everything looks within the longwave pattern...it's not a smooth pattern (if that makes sense). I get the ensembles are the way to go in the medium-to-extend range but sometimes the smoothing done by the ensembles is not a good thing, especially when there is too much chaos on-hand. 

Think back to was it 2010 and then again in 2013 when we had those epic stretches...we had a beautiful longwave pattern but there wasn't a whole hell of a lot of chaos. I thought about it like a railroad track...you have the longwave pattern (train tracks) and then a steady supply of shortwaves (the train) with little destructive interference. This...just looks like a chaotic mess. When I see that it just leads me to believe that you really only have one legit shot at something. That's why I was saying cold/dry with the one potential in the 10th-12th when there looked to be the most favorable alignment of teleconnections. 

Beyond the chaotic state of undefined shortwaves, which I agree with, the block is going to add mucho velocity and could create a shortwave shredder. We need some amped up shortwaves.

[OceanStWx]

32 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Didn't you watch the Terminator and Terminator 2 years ago? Skynet is the AI computer that becomes self-aware and tries to destroy humanity.

Was it wrong though?

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Kitz Craver said:

Beyond the chaotic state of undefined shortwaves, which I agree with, the block is going to add mucho velocity and could create a shortwave shredder. We need some amped up shortwaves.

This is why I do like the 10th-12th period that several have mentioned, it seems to offer the best potential for good shortwave amplification and potential for deep trough amplification...of course this could also result in cutters but this is where we want some degree of blocking. 

[weathafella]

I never watched a second of the terminator movies hence my ignorance.

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No. Need a blizzard.

An emotional support blizzard

[Layman]

6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I never watched a second of the terminator movies hence my ignorance.

I was super snappy one day and decided to binge watch the Terminator movies. Never felt better afterwards!

 

I kid!

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Beyond the chaotic state of undefined shortwaves, which I agree with, the block is going to add mucho velocity and could create a shortwave shredder. We need some amped up shortwaves.

All this could create a lot of things that we have been discussing.  It’s all there in these OP runs now…the monster from the gulf the GFS just had, that gets pulled into NYC at 963mb.  The shredded mess that was shown last night. The suppressed solutions are there too.  And the bombs off the coast are thee too…It’s all there now.    
 

The good news as Will explained, there’s alot of ways for alot of this to work, when the pattern is that stacked in your favor. that’s the difference between threading a needle pattern, and a very good pattern.  
 

And yes, all of this could fail, and we come away skunked, and the Mid Atlantic is sitting back with record snows.  It’s happened before(2010), it can and will happen again. But hopefully this time around we all get to play.  Lots of time to watch the model cinema…the great news is, there’s alot of movies playing the next few weeks at the theater.  Get comfy in your seats, and enjoy the show. 

[cleetussnow]

48 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Didn't you watch the Terminator and Terminator 2 years ago? Skynet is the AI computer that becomes self-aware and tries to destroy humanity.

With weather

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

OP Euro was a near-miss next Monday. But yeah, they are close....EPS is more amplified and gets precip into most of the region.

My biggest concern is still suppression on these....the block in the NAO region is really strong and it's the type of setup where we've seen suppression in the past.

For up here, That's close to a death sentence, If the Mid Atlantic or RIC is giving out high fives, I pretty much know what the outcome will be.

[40/70 Benchmark]

29 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

As far as the Mid Atlantic goes…those poor guys have had it even worse than us the last while. Pretty much Nothing down there.  So if we’re just looking at the averages…they are as Due as it gets down that way. So they’ll probably be grabbing some too…let’s just hope it isn’t a 2010 shut out for us up in NE, and we all can share in the fun. But the risk is there. Although my gut tells me we will get in on some of this cake as we head into the new year.  

No...they had some good seasons mixed around the turn of the decade.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Captain obvious is here to save you all the trouble. Buckle up and follow his lead…

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

For up here, That's close to a death sentence, If the Mid Atlantic or RIC is giving out high fives, I pretty much know what the outcome will be.

The good news is…these are just possibilities right now, and I’ll still take our odds, and yours even more, over Raleigh or Richmond at 8-14 days lead time.  Modeling can’t yet decide which of these waves are the main players yet…at least the action is showing up now.  A few days ago that’s all anybody wanted…was show the action, deets to be determined as we close in. 

 

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No...they had some good seasons mixed around the turn of the decade.

Ya but they’ve been screwed even more than us of late is more my point. Pretty much nothing there the last few years. 

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Captain obvious is here to save you all the trouble. Buckle up and follow his lead…

What’s your point smart guy? What I explained isn’t inaccurate at all.  The action is showing up…that’s what we wanted to see. The chances are there. 

You told us we’d have to wait til ‘25 back on 12/6 for any more snow…that was a huge fail. You’re at normal snow now for December.  That’s a far cry from your call of no snow till 25 back on 12/6.  

[Go Kart Mozart]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

wtf is Skynet?  I thought it was a media company. 

Euro AI, lol.  I think CoastalWx gave it that label.

[CoastalWx]

This might be me if this pattern porks.

 

 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

The good news is…these are just possibilities right now, and I’ll still take our odds, and yours even more, over Raleigh or Richmond at 8-14 days lead time.  Modeling can’t yet decide which of these waves are the main players yet…at least the action is showing up now.  A few days ago that’s all anybody wanted…was show the action, deets to be determined as we close in. 

 

Ya but they’ve been screwed even more than us of late is more my point. Pretty much nothing there the last few years. 

Yes, They are possibilities, But that does exist and sits in the back of my mind, Strong confluence squeezes systems more ENE once it gets up towards the BM, Just my thoughts.

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would rather risk the cuttter...I hate the shredder scenarios. Even in the former, its probably a great front-ender.

I’m with you 100% here. I’m absolutely exhausted with the shredder wiping out good shortwaves the last few years. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, dryslot said:

Yes, They are possibilities, But that does exist and sits in the back of my mind, Strong confluence squeezes systems more ENE once it gets up towards the BM, Just my thoughts.

Agreed Jeff..no doubt. Hopefully the block isn’t quite as strong as we move closer. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

The good news is…these are just possibilities right now, and I’ll still take our odds, and yours even more, over Raleigh or Richmond at 8-14 days lead time.  Modeling can’t yet decide which of these waves are the main players yet…at least the action is showing up now.  A few days ago that’s all anybody wanted…was show the action, deets to be determined as we close in. 

 

Ya but they’ve been screwed even more than us of late is more my point. Pretty much nothing there the last few years. 

No, not relative to climo they have not. I haven't had a normal season in 7 years, dude. Find a locale with a longer stretch...

[weatherwiz]

Maybe some strong storms tomorrow evening into early overnight from New Jersey into Fairfield County Connecticut? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think it was 2021-2022 NJ had that fantastic season, while I sat watching everything hit the Mass pike and shred to shit.

[Go Kart Mozart]

Let the widespread panic begin!

 

 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, not relative to climo they have not. I haven't had a normal season in 7 years, dude. Find a locale with a longer stretch...

I wasn’t talking about your specific area Ray…as a whole I was meaning. look at Anthony’s last 4-5 seasons, and south of him too. Some places zero or less than an inch or two. We’ve all been screwed over the last few years. Just overall they seem to be even worse.  That’s all.