Jester January

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

And you put out statements all the time about severe..that never ever play/pan out, so I think it evens out.  So you should understand the situation.  

These are two totally different scales and aren't comparable. Convection is mesoscale and severe is generally extremely localized. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

These are two totally different scales and aren't comparable. Convection is mesoscale and severe is generally extremely localized. 

I have a strong feeling you will be weeneing out over extreme 700mb fronto with an epic snowfall map in the next 7-10 days, patience….

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

That looks dam decent..nice! 

It hasn’t been bad up north for snow.  Places have had coverage consistently since November.  There was a healthy 2” rain storm in mid-Dec but temps were like 34F so it wasn’t as bad as recent years’ thaws.

It’s been a below normal month of December.  Thats going to snow in the north.  As the seasonal jet lowers, suppression becomes a concern up here in January and February before the jet migrates north again.

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

These are two totally different scales and aren't comparable. Convection is mesoscale and severe is generally extremely localized. 

The point is, you like to talk about the potential, when the pieces are looking to “potentially” come together for severe/or thunder in general, this is the same thing in that aspect. So yes, it is comparable in that regard. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Another one that would work 

That's a New England Blizzard

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

That's a New England Blizzard

Agreed. 

[dryslot]

BECS?

[powderfreak]

I’m impressed with MVL (-1.4), BTV (-1.9) and MPV (-2.4).

Its a low bar these days to be below normal during a winter month… but after last winter‘s torch, damn it feels like winter.

Last December was +7.8 at MVL.  Holy shit that is warm. -1.4 this year is almost a 10 degree swing in the means.

The heating bill feels it.

Its the difference between monthly mix/max means of 37/24 and 29/15.  Sensibly speaking, it’s a big difference to keep the highs below freezing.

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Would you rather the medium to long range have a trough down to the Baja and a record breaking eastern ridge with highs near 70  on Jan 3rd and beyond? If we want snow you need certain pieces in place, Bring in the cold, and the right teleconnections and snow should follow most of the time, if we strike out again, well that will suck yet again. But there is plenty of hope. 

Agreed on that but more often than not, storms come at the onset of pattern changes. When we get lucky, we can get the pattern to setup right and drill us with multiple storms in the span of weeks but that's not what this upcoming period looks to be. Look at even the last several winters...we have been in a terrible rut where we're lacking cold air ahead of storms but we have no problem getting cold in here on the backside of systems but once the next system approaches, we warm. 

This upcoming stretch looks like we get very cold, but lack an active pattern. There is that one period in the 10th-12th where teleconnections seem like they could line up to favor a storm within the East but the overall pattern seems absent of an abundance of shortwave energy. 

[WxWatcher007]

Kind of an aside but I was walking along the CT river today and I think I see the makings of an ice jam? The bridge was literally the dividing line between flowing water and ice. Doubt this all melts before the cold returns. I don’t recall many ice jams this far south, especially in recent years. 
 

 

 

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I have a strong feeling you will be weeneing out over extreme 700mb fronto with an epic snowfall pay in the next 7-10 days, patience….

I certainly hope so! I am dying to do this

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

The point is, you like to talk about the potential, when the pieces are looking to “potentially” come together for severe/or thunder in general, this is the same thing in that aspect. So yes, it is comparable in that regard. 

Fair

[HIPPYVALLEY]

The mid-week storm will start frozen for the interior.   The warm up isn't a big deal and we have had a cold December.  The past few weeks have felt normal New England winter over the interior.  Hippy approved.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Agreed on that but more often than not, storms come at the onset of pattern changes. When we get lucky, we can get the pattern to setup right and drill us with multiple storms in the span of weeks but that's not what this upcoming period looks to be. Look at even the last several winters...we have been in a terrible rut where we're lacking cold air ahead of storms but we have no problem getting cold in here on the backside of systems but once the next system approaches, we warm. 

This upcoming stretch looks like we get very cold, but lack an active pattern. There is that one period in the 10th-12th where teleconnections seem like they could line up to favor a storm within the East but the overall pattern seems absent of an abundance of shortwave energy. 

Let’s start with one snowstorm, then go from there. Hopefully we can get one then get a reload and a storm on the reload. 

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Agreed on that but more often than not, storms come at the onset of pattern changes. When we get lucky, we can get the pattern to setup right and drill us with multiple storms in the span of weeks but that's not what this upcoming period looks to be. Look at even the last several winters...we have been in a terrible rut where we're lacking cold air ahead of storms but we have no problem getting cold in here on the backside of systems but once the next system approaches, we warm. 

This upcoming stretch looks like we get very cold, but lack an active pattern. There is that one period in the 10th-12th where teleconnections seem like they could line up to favor a storm within the East but the overall pattern seems absent of an abundance of shortwave energy. 

Maybe we don’t want an abundance of shortwaves this go around…too many pigs fighting for food in the same feed sack…a few well placed ones might work better… 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Let’s start with one snowstorm, then go from there. Hopefully we can get one then get a reload and a storm ok the reload. 

I am becoming extremely impatient and quite honestly, I still have a sour taste in my mouth from the last February event where I thought for sure I would get around a foot and only ended up with 3.5''. Maybe it has become a defense mechanism to just poo-poo extended range when it looks good for fear of being disappointed but I really am fed up with these garbage winters. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Let’s start with one snowstorm, then go from there. Hopefully we can get one then get a reload and a storm ok the reload. 

I think it's coming, mid-month or a bit earlier.  Warning snows from coastal CT to S VT.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Maybe we don’t want an abundance of shortwaves this go around…too many pigs fighting for food in the same feed sack…a fed well placed ones might work better… 

yeah that's something I've thought about too. When we have an abundance of shortwaves it creates chaos with guidance and one reason for the struggle in the short-term but on the other hand...you would think with the abundance of shortwaves that eventually regression to the mean will work in our favor. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I am becoming extremely impatient and quite honestly, I still have a sour taste in my mouth from the last February event where I thought for sure I would get around a foot and only ended up with 3.5''. Maybe it has become a defense mechanism to just poo-poo extended range when it looks good for fear of being disappointed but I really am fed up with these garbage winters. 

Sure, it’s sucked for the most part, but we’ve busted out of ruts before many times, so stay calm, and let’s see what happens. 

[dryslot]

We need to make a sacrifice to Ullr, We have a lot of choices to select from here.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, dryslot said:

We need to make a sacrifice to Ullr, We have a lot of choices to select from here.

I sacrifice Zadorov 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

yeah that's something I've thought about too. When we have an abundance of shortwaves it creates chaos with guidance and one reason for the struggle in the short-term but on the other hand...you would think with the abundance of shortwaves that eventually regression to the mean will work in our favor. 

Then there’s The whole timing and spatial issues too…that’s what f’d us a week ago today.  We don’t need that, we’ve had enough of that. 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I sacrifice Zadorov 

I agree

[weatherwiz]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Then there’s The whole timing and spatial issues too…that’s what f’d us a week ago today.  We don’t need that, we’ve had enough of that. 

Just seems like no matter what, we get screwed  

Can't wait to we eventually get out of this

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Just seems like no matter what, we get screwed  

Can't wait to we eventually get out of this

You’re very young yet…I’ve lived through this crap before. Eventually it ends. 

[Prismshine Productions]

I think it's coming, mid-month or a bit earlier.  Warning snows from coastal CT to S VT.

Hi

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[Prismshine Productions]

We need to make a sacrifice to Ullr, We have a lot of choices to select from here.

Sacrifice Forky and omega

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[mreaves]

36 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

but he’s supposedly the Meteorologist.

I rarely, if ever call out anything said here but this is a shit statement for you to make about Paul. We all saw his sometimes winding road to become a pro met. There is no one who deserves that tag more. This isn’t saying you can’t disagree and I think you made a much better point when you noted he talks about potential a lot. Saying he is “supposedly” a meteorologist is BS though. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Yea no one knows what will happen but one thing we do know is something for the better will happen, at some point, eventually. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

38 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

The mid-week storm will start frozen for the interior.   The warm up isn't a big deal and we have had a cold December.  The past few weeks have felt normal New England winter over the interior.  Hippy approved.

 Not sure I agree with the first part.  I’m leaning cold rain. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

 Not sure I agree with the first part.  I’m leaning cold rain. 

Wintery mix incoming,  @ineedsnowwill keep us updated where the freezing line is.