Jester January

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This December was kind of favorable too. I do feel like we left some stuff on the table, but hey many areas did have snow. 
 

I didn’t mean to come across as a complainer. Sometimes it helped to vent. I really could have used that last Friday event for many reasons, but it didn’t work out. I’ll just keep my weenie crossed for January. 

Let’s not get the pattern too epic. No offense to our Mid Atlantic friends, but I could do without 5 degree cirrus while DC and PHL are getting pummeled. The snow has been respectable up here the last couple of seasons despite the difficulties down in SNE. Let’s just get it a little colder and a little more active and roll with that. 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Let’s not get the pattern too epic. No offense to our Mid Atlantic friends, but I could do without 5 degree cirrus while DC and PHL are getting pummeled. The snow has been respectable up here the last couple of seasons despite the difficulties down in SNE. Let’s just get it a little colder and a little more active and roll with that. 

Nope, don’t need the I-95 KU pattern. Just something with a better airmass to start. 

[CoastalWx]

Definitely some active model runs today

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Nope, don’t need the I-95 KU pattern. Just something with a better airmass to start. 

18z Gfs says keep wishing againt an I-95 KU pattern...please?

[ORH_wxman]

20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Definitely some active model runs today

Ray might start posting blog updates while in the hospital right after new years. First a kind of classic SWFE on 18z gfs and then a longitude coastal (favoring eastern areas) after that. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ray might start posting blog updates while in the hospital right after new years. First a kind of classic SWFE on 18z gfs and then a longitude coastal (favoring eastern areas) after that. 

They would be late, late night blogs for the sake of my marriage...while she sleeps

[Prismshine Productions]

@40/70 Benchmark would be happy, introducing the newborn to the joyous wonder of a snow covered landscape

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[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

@40/70 Benchmark would be happy, introducing the newborn to the joyous wonder of a snow covered landscape

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk


 

She doesn't even want the laptop in the hospital....ever since I tried writing some of my outlook when we were in for my first born right before Halloween.

Gonna have to smuggle that shit and work pre dawn

[Damage In Tolland]

43 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Definitely some active model runs today

Even the Debbiest of Debbie’s stopped posting after the snow filled 12z runs. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pattern does get a lot more active after the 3rd/4th it seems. 
 

I think most people have a hard time conceptually understanding good pattern/bad pattern discourse from a probabilistic standpoint. A good pattern doesn’t guarantee anything but it loads the dice in our favor. A bad pattern doesn’t exclude snowfall either but it loads the dice against us. But I’d say about 75% of the forum posters don’t care for probabilistic discourse. They want guarantees. If the storms aren’t showing up in the short/medium term guidance inside of 5-6 days, then its going to be negative talk from them regardless of what the longer range shows…if the LR looks excellent, they will roll their eyes and say wake me up when it’s closer. If it looks like crap, they will assume it’s correct and bitch about that…I always found that part funny. 

To be fair, you need to put this into the proper context.....coming off of being boned for 8 years running I am doing that, sure. How many times have I kept slamming my head into a brick wall for the last several years to get to that point?? Take a look at my last couple of outlooks...you tell me. 

Trust me....if this reaches a certain tipping point of probability and lead time, I will flip a switch. We aren't there yet.

[Prismshine Productions]

She doesn't even want the laptop in the hospital....ever since I tried writing some of my outlook when we were in for my first born right before Halloween.
Gonna have to smuggle that shit and work pre dawn

I dunno man... I wouldn't risk that

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[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

To be fair, you need to put this into the proper context.....coming off of being boned for 8 years running I am doing that, sure. How many times have I kept slamming my head into a brick wall for the last several years to get to that point?? Take a look at my last couple of outlooks...you tell me. 

Trust me....if this reaches a certain tipping point of probability and lead time, I will flip a switch. We aren't there yet.

I know you’ve endured many BN seasons,  but even for me, the last few have been a complete molestation. Literally events just totaling .5 here, .7 there. The last one was just an unbelievable way to bend me over. So yeah, sometimes you got to put hour hands in the air and scream what the fuck, or in some cases, hands to the keyboard and vent. 
 

And before anybody starts to get in their high horse, yes I get it…missing out on the storms we got, hurt. I totally understand. But imagine literally being shut out totally for 3 years and then getting a pubic hair away from a solid snowfall. 

[CoastalWx]

There is no question in my mind, Ray would have been divorced by 2/15/15 if he were married.

[Prismshine Productions]

There is no question in my mind, Ray would have been divorced by 2/15/15.

Nothing is worth the wrath of a wife who just gave birth

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[8611Blizz]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I know you’ve endured many BN seasons,  but even for me, the last few have been a complete molestation. Literally events just totaling .5 here, .7 there. The last one was just an unbelievable way to bend me over. So yeah, sometimes you got to put hour hands in the air and scream what the fuck, or in some cases, hands to the keyboard and vent. 
 

And before anybody starts to get in their high horse, yes I get it…missing out on the storms we got, hurt. I totally understand. But imagine literally being shut out totally for 3 years and then getting a pubic hair away from a solid snowfall. 

I think my area has set a record for the number of "Traces" in the last several years.

[dendrite]

I haven’t had a 30”+ event in 4 years. 

[Hoth]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I haven’t had a 30”+ event in 4 years. 

I think you'd have to add my last three seasons to get 30".

[mahk_webstah]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I haven’t had a 30”+ event in 4 years. 

And I haven’t had at 30” snowpack for 2 years!  

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

And I haven’t had at 30” snowpack for 2 years!  

I missed the 4 year anni of the 2020 storm. I may need to bump the storm memories thread. 

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I haven’t had a 30”+ event in 4 years. 

8 years for me

[Go Kart Mozart]

54 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

She doesn't even want the laptop in the hospital....ever since I tried writing some of my outlook when we were in for my first born right before Halloween.

Gonna have to smuggle that shit and work pre dawn

Blessings have been heaped upon you.  Eff the weather.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Blessings have been heaped upon you.  Eff the weather.

The weather has heaped plenty of something else upon me.

[powderfreak]

33 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I haven’t had a 30”+ event in 4 years. 

Haha brutal.  No mercy.

[radarman]

Aside from Jan 2011 in a few favored spots, I don't know if this area has ever had a 30" storm.  Maybe 1888.  Seems like a once in a hundred year type of event.

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

8 years for me

You mean the once in a century storm hasn't arrived after 8 years? 

Some of you need a reality check. 

[WinterWolf]

18 minutes ago, radarman said:

Aside from Jan 2011 in a few favored spots, I don't know if this area has ever had a 30" storm.  Maybe 1888.  Seems like a once in a hundred year type of event.

How bout Feb of 13? How bout January of 15? How bout March of 18?  How bout January of 22? All of those had 30 inches plus in places.  Feb of 13 had about 33-34” here. 

[powderfreak]

31 minutes ago, radarman said:

Aside from Jan 2011 in a few favored spots, I don't know if this area has ever had a 30" storm.  Maybe 1888.  Seems like a once in a hundred year type of event.

 

10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

How bout Feb of 13? How bout January of 15? How bout March of 18?  How bout January of 22? All of those had 30 inches plus in places.  Feb of 13 had about 33-34” here. 

Wolfie quick to counter snowy, but what about RadarMan’s area?  30 burgers are tough.  I think October 2011 in the northern Berks?

[radarman]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

How bout Feb of 13? How bout January of 15? How bout March of 18?  How bout January of 22? All of those had 30 inches plus in places.  Feb of 13 had about 33-34” here. 

Feb 13, great storm, was 2' for a lot of the valley.  Maybe 25" for some but uniform.

Jan 15 was like 8" of arctic sand... less just west in the valley.

Jan 22 was 6", more baking powder

[GCWarrior]

I’d agree with no 30” down in the valley.  Slightly higher here in Shelburne falls we have had 30” March 2023 and October 2010 as I can remember.  And those may not have been 30”. 

[radarman]

3 minutes ago, GCWarrior said:

I’d agree with no 30” down in the valley.  Slightly higher here in Shelburne falls we have had 30” March 2023 and October 2010 as I can remember.  And those may not have been 30”. 

The Octobomb (2011) I think you might well have got 30" up there.  Not sure if you pulled it off in December 92 as well?  The valley floor sure didn't haha.  They hardly got anything.