Jester January

[qg_omega]

1 hour ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Never heard of this guy. Is he respectable ( not just a hyped weather enthusiasts )? 

He’s triple bun 

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

MJO influence looks to fade. So after that pattern shakes up, I’m not sure how long it holds. Weeklies are voodoo so I’m not sure how much weight they hold. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve heard buckle up since 2023.

Agreed. The forecasted pattern normally goes to crap after he tweets about it 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

Best month in decades

Well local screw zone here. I understand it was better in other areas.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Agreed. The forecasted pattern normally goes to crap after he tweets about it 

My comment was more about the weeklies. 

[DavisStraight]

48 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Even Ruaaway Berg has 7-8” this month . AN for SW CT

I have about that, maybe an inch more, I feel for those getting hosed, but this is one of the better Decembers and Christmases in a while in my area.

[WxWatcher007]

I’m at 3.8 womp womp

Very little complaints here though. The holidays have been wintry. That’s all that matters in December to me. After Dec 25? Time to produce. Bigly.

[brooklynwx99]

lol i guess all it takes is two crap winters for people to start trashing a respected met. god bless

[brooklynwx99]

also the upcoming pattern for most of early-mid Jan objectively looks very good. people can shit on it and PTSD reverse psychology their way out of it all they want but it doesn't change what pretty much every ensemble is showing

[DavisStraight]

25 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’m at 3.8 womp womp

Very little complaints here though. The holidays have been wintry. That’s all that matters in December to me. After Dec 25? Time to produce. Bigly.

Need a two footer or a couple of 10-15 would do too.

[Typhoon Tip]

16 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

also the upcoming pattern for most of early-mid Jan objectively looks very good. people can shit on it and PTSD reverse psychology their way out of it all they want but it doesn't change what pretty much every ensemble is showing

gefs migrated though ...

...I mean I get what you mean with the 'ptsd' barb.   that's funny by the way, and quite true.  see, people don't realize that sardonic humor isn't conveyed very well, not in a toneless written media, so they only achieve sounding like trollic assholes  .. i kind of get this image of a person typing with a smirk grin on their face, thinking they got the room laughing along with their grapes, when really everyone's going 'you're a douche'

anyway, the gefs may come back..  there are some east asia/west pac arguments that combined with the mjo projections ... sort of make the gefs recent move come under scrutiny.   the short version i'm personally more in the eps side for generalizing the pattern foot.   we'll see 

as far as meat,  the better hamburg is probably the 5/6th like we were saying the other day, but this one on the 2nd is still there.   for what it is not worth ( which is a lot of not worthiness haha), the 00z euro skynet model is mix miller b with the 2nd, then a mix/snow for the 6th.  who's with me!?

[brooklynwx99]

9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

gefs migrated though ...

...I mean I get what you mean with the 'ptsd' barb.   that's funny by the way, and quite true.  see, people don't realize that sardonic humor isn't conveyed very well, not in a toneless written media, so they only achieve sounding like trollic assholes  .. i kind of get this image of a person typing with a smirk grin on their face, thinking they got the room laughing along with their grapes, when really everyone's going 'you're a douche'

anyway, the gefs may come back..  there are some east asia/west pac arguments that combined with the mjo projections ... sort of make the gefs recent move come under scrutiny.   the short version i'm personally more in the eps side for generalizing the pattern foot.   we'll see 

as far as meat,  the better hamburg is probably the 5/6th like we were saying the other day, but this one on the 2nd is still there.   for what it is not worth ( which is a lot of not worthiness haha), the 00z euro skynet model is mix miller b with the 2nd, then a mix/snow for the 6th.  who's with me!?

the GEFS just made a pretty large move towards the EPS line of thinking with much lower heights in the GoA before the pattern gets going. leads to less crap getting stuck behind

[UnitedWx]

9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the GEFS just made a pretty large move towards the EPS line of thinking with much lower heights in the GoA before the pattern gets going. leads to less crap getting stuck behind

So, you're saying less swamp ass? Seriously though, that's about as promising as you could ask for at this point 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Well local screw zone here. I understand it was better in other areas.

It certainly didn’t seem that impressive here but somehow I managed to nickel and dime my way to 9” for the month. 
That is probably close to average for Greenfield but I’m not sure.

[Great Snow 1717]

40 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lol i guess all it takes is two crap winters for people to start trashing a respected met. god bless

TWO???????????????

[CoastalWx]

21 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the GEFS just made a pretty large move towards the EPS line of thinking with much lower heights in the GoA before the pattern gets going. leads to less crap getting stuck behind

Getting to be a nice Davis Strait block. Too bad the airmass blows. 

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Getting to be a nice Davis Strait block. Too bad the airmass blows. 

GEFS looks like it's caving to the EPS. and yeah the airmass will suck until around the 3rd... first storm risk is Jan 4-5, then a larger one Jan 6-8

[Snowcrazed71]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Getting to be a nice Davis Strait block. Too bad the airmass blows. 

Man... Do you ever have anything optimistic to say..lol

I know you feel burnt, but doesn't it get old staying in the Negative zone? It's bound to get better.

[brooklynwx99]

here are my thoughts I posted in the NYC forum:

as we pass the 3rd or so, we probably do enter a pretty damn favorable pattern with -EPO/-NAO and a strong signal for N ATL confluence that will help press storms to the south alongside ample cold air. there's even a hint of sagginess off Baja California indicating a somewhat active STJ. overall, this presents the chance of phasing potential over the OH / MS valleys with 50/50 confluence in place

now, the strength and character of the -NAO still needs to be worked out, as this will dictate the confluence... this isn't a shoe in and there is still time for things to change, of course. I would like to see this look persist towards NYE. it's relatively high confidence overall

regardless of if you're pessimistic or optimistic, objectively, this should be our best shot at seeing a larger snowstorm in a while

[qg_omega]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

here are my thoughts I posted in the NYC forum:

as we pass the 3rd or so, we probably do enter a pretty damn favorable pattern with -EPO/-NAO and a strong signal for N ATL confluence that will help press storms to the south alongside ample cold air. there's even a hint of sagginess off Baja California indicating a somewhat active STJ. overall, this presents the chance of phasing potential over the OH / MS valleys with 50/50 confluence in place

now, the strength and character of the -NAO still needs to be worked out, as this will dictate the confluence... this isn't a shoe in and there is still time for things to change, of course. I would like to see this look persist towards NYE. it's relatively high confidence overall

regardless of if you're pessimistic or optimistic, objectively, this should be our best shot at seeing a larger snowstorm in a while

Looks good but that has close to zero chance of verifying anywhere near that.  You can bump this in 300 hrs

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Time to make AEMATT great again. 

I’ll trade you my 8” month of pennies for your eventual 30” HECS…because it’s coming and when it does, I’ll be skinning fur off the CT predator. 

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, qg_omega said:

Looks good but that has close to zero chance of verifying anywhere near that.  You can bump this in 300 hrs

any reason why?

[eduggs]

1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Man... Do you ever have anything optimistic to say..lol

I know you feel burnt, but doesn't it get old staying in the Negative zone? It's bound to get better.

This recent string of posts is the best and most objective I've ever seen from him. It counters the overconfidence and unsupported optimism quite well. Snow is uncommon in the low elevation coastal plain. A lot has to go right to get it. Failure is the default outcome. Many people still haven't learned that there is more uncertainty in long range ensembles than they think.

[dryslot]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Then this happens

[weathafella]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Actually BOS had a good event so some of the area is already great.  
 

 

Good is pretty far from great in this case.  BOS will probably finish subnormal for the month but not by much.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Walking away with about 2” on the month spread out between 3 events. Not sure I can even call that mediocre.

 

It wasn’t a good month here. We whiffed on several good chances, and about 5-10 miles NW of me got 4-5” on Friday while we got an inch here.

 

Next 

[DavisStraight]

19 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Good is pretty far from great in this case.  BOS will probably finish subnormal for the month but not by much.

Great would have been if we all got a foot plus a few days ago but it is still good considering past years.

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Man... Do you ever have anything optimistic to say..lol

I know you feel burnt, but doesn't it get old staying in the Negative zone? It's bound to get better.

So you want me to lie? I tell it like it is. 
 

Maybe you missed my earlier posts about the pattern.

[CoastalWx]

40 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Good is pretty far from great in this case.  BOS will probably finish subnormal for the month but not by much.

True but all relative. I still would be out there nude with a mistletoe over my weenie if I got what you got. 

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

here are my thoughts I posted in the NYC forum:

as we pass the 3rd or so, we probably do enter a pretty damn favorable pattern with -EPO/-NAO and a strong signal for N ATL confluence that will help press storms to the south alongside ample cold air. there's even a hint of sagginess off Baja California indicating a somewhat active STJ. overall, this presents the chance of phasing potential over the OH / MS valleys with 50/50 confluence in place

now, the strength and character of the -NAO still needs to be worked out, as this will dictate the confluence... this isn't a shoe in and there is still time for things to change, of course. I would like to see this look persist towards NYE. it's relatively high confidence overall

regardless of if you're pessimistic or optimistic, objectively, this should be our best shot at seeing a larger snowstorm in a while

Yep, just get deeper into first week of Jan. Not much more to say until the pieces come together as we get a week out. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

So you want me to lie? I tell it like it is. 
 

Maybe you missed my earlier posts about the pattern.

Yes. Tell em everything is awesome…they like that.