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Jester January

Prismshine Productions

By Prismshine Productions,
in New England

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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

Pattern does get a lot more active after the 3rd/4th it seems.    I think most people have a hard time conceptually understanding good pattern/bad pattern discourse from a probabilistic standpo

CoastalWx
CoastalWx

One red neck hill in CT has near normal snow and suddenly the whole region turns into Denali.

Sey-Mour Snow
Sey-Mour Snow

Wish that would actually verify that’s damn cold and potentially snowy days 10-15.. but I am jaded as there have been many perfect patterns modeled the last few years and the opposite ended up verifyi

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UnitedWx

UnitedWx

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, ice1972 said:

try as hard as you can to explain how a winter where you lose December can still be great.....it can't.....it could have always been greater.....so shut up

You REALLY just don't get it do you! December is NEVER guaranteed here in SNE, especially valley south.  Not saying it will happen but most of our best winters don't include white in December. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

You REALLY just don't get it do you! December is NEVER guaranteed here in SNE, especially valley south.  Not saying it will happen but most of our beat winter ls don't include white in December. 

He’s not gonna answer until he wakes up and shakes off the hangover at noontime. He does this every 1-2 weeks during winter when the libations are flowing generously. :lol:

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted

I get that some got shut out…And it’s been a loss for some, and I feel for those. Fresh snow here on Xmas eve…ensuring a white Xmas, and very close to normal snow for December at my locale, with some good cold, and frigid temps the last 4 days.  I can’t complain.  Hopefully we all get the major system we are looking for in January.   Merry Xmas boys! 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
50 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

He’s not gonna answer until he wakes up and shakes off the hangover at noontime. He does this every 1-2 weeks during winter when the libations are flowing generously. :lol:

1993-1994 was barren of any snow thru Dec 28 ...then all hell broke loose and many sites over eastern SNE would go on to laying down their greatest snow season in history because of what happened after Dec was lost.  

it's an open a shut case...  a dumb case/debate to begin with, but just fwiw -

-------------------------

quite the the guidance source battle.   You intimated there was a conflict yesterday?  or someone did.   Anyway, conflict is the first description that leaped to mind when comparing the EPS vs the GEFs mean ( 00z) this morning.

I lean EPS and suggest this system is real ... at least more real than the paltry (if at all existing...) GEFs.

image.png.76b32cd25ac742f80a8a427d5819e8dd.png

  but again, I'm not sure if the troposphere will modulate ( in guidance ) colder as this time period gets closer.  

In theory ...the NAO derivatives of both sources enter a statically negative value from about 3 days from now, out to the end of the 360 hrs; spatial synoptic handling would have it manifesting over the western limb, too. 

Meanwhile,  that is not being very well represented in the operational versions of either the Euro or GFS.   That's tricky...because for one, that means that it can reemerge at any time; small correction vector is suggested, pointed at suppression/colder even though it may or may not be presently seen.   The other aspect is that these operational layouts, having less NAO ... they don't offer enough suppression and cold, so these systems are cutting inland in the recent operational tenors.    

There are two main aspects to contend/resolve for me.  The first is whether the ensemble mean of the EPS is more or less correct than the GEFs with the Pac across N/A.  The 2nd is whether the circulation mode over eastern Canada doesn't exert out of seemingly no where ... seeing as there's a memo in circulation telling that department it's okay to do so.   

I will say though that the GEFs has almost completely lost the +d(PNA) that the EPS still has.  There's quite a lot of tension and implicit impact differences there.  Yesterday, the GEFs mean still had, albiet more modestly, a +d(PNA) heading into the 2nd of January(ish).   As of last night, it's gone.  It's really been a remarkable feat of engineering watching the GEFs forecast system work to eradicate it.   So now ... yeah, conveniently the GFS is no longer out of sync with it's ensemble mean.   It doesn't fit the MJO comin' around the bend out there in 7 and then moving through 8, however.  Nor the Nina foot print that's "suppposed" be strengthening through this period - these latter aspects according to the MJO desk/CPC.

"...• An MJO signal crossing the Pacific tends to be associated with a pattern change favoring increased troughing over the eastern US. This pattern shift has recently become quite prominent in dynamical model forecasts for early January....."   

They both are -EPO out there toward Jan 10... and also have the negative AO...  these are actually correlated well to phase 8--> 2...

putting all this together ... it seems there is room for the GEFs to be wrong here - or more wrong than the EPS.     But I have to fair and honest, having the GEFS/GFS now together ...mmm  

The thing is...I'm interested ( tho less than two days ago, admittedly) in the Jan 2nd/3rd-ness becaues typically ... events take place closer to the entry and exit temporality of large mass field changes - which is what these telecons are designed to mark in time.   The EPS spatial synoptic cinema fits that expectation -  for now.

 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

1993-1994 was barren of any snow thru Dec 28 ...then all hell broke loose and many sites over eastern SNE would go on to laying down their greatest snow season in history because of what happened after Dec was lost.  

it's an open a shut case...  a dumb case/debate to begin with, but just fwiw -

-------------------------

quite the the guidance source battle.   You intimated there was a conflict yesterday?  or someone did.   Anyway, conflict is the first description that leaped to mind when comparing the EPS vs the GEFs mean ( 00z) this morning.

I lean EPS and suggest this system is real ... at least more real than the paltry (if at all existing...) GEFs.

image.png.76b32cd25ac742f80a8a427d5819e8dd.png

  but again, I'm not sure if the troposphere will modulate ( in guidance ) colder as this time period gets closer.  

In theory ...the NAO derivatives of both sources enter a statically negative value from about 3 days from now, out to the end of the 360 hrs; spatial synoptic handling would have it manifesting over the western limb, too. 

Meanwhile,  that is not being very well represented in the operational versions of either the Euro or GFS.   That's tricky...because for one, that means that it can reemerge at any time; small correction vector is suggested, pointed at suppression/colder even though it may or may not be presently seen.   The other aspect is that these operational layouts, having less NAO ... they don't offer enough suppression and cold, so these systems are cutting inland in the recent operational tenors.    

There are two main aspects to contend/resolve for me.  The first is whether the ensemble mean of the EPS is more or less correct than the GEFs with the Pac across N/A.  The 2nd is whether the circulation mode over eastern Canada doesn't exert out of seemingly no where ... seeing as there's a memo in circulation telling that department it's okay to do so.   

I will say though that the GEFs has almost completely lost the +d(PNA) that the EPS still has.  There's quite a lot of tension and implicit impact differences there.  Yesterday, the GEFs mean still had, albiet more modestly, a +d(PNA) heading into the 2nd of January(ish).   As of last night, it's gone.  It's really been a remarkable feat of engineering watching the GEFs forecast system work to eradicate it.   So now ... yeah, conveniently the GFS is no longer out of sync with it's ensemble mean.   It doesn't fit the MJO comin' around the bend out there in 7 and then moving through 8, however.  Nor the Nina foot print that's "suppposed" be strengthening through this period - these latter aspects according to the MJO desk/CPC.

"...• An MJO signal crossing the Pacific tends to be associated with a pattern change favoring increased troughing over the eastern US. This pattern shift has recently become quite prominent in dynamical model forecasts for early January....."   

They both are -EPO out there toward Jan 10... and also have the negative AO...  these are actually correlated well to phase 8--> 2...

putting all this together ... it seems there is room for the GEFs to be wrong here - or more wrong than the EPS.     But I have to fair and honest, having the GEFS/GFS now together ...mmm  

The thing is...I'm interested ( tho less than two days ago, admittedly) in the Jan 2nd/3rd-ness becaues typically ... events take place closer to the entry and exit temporality of large mass field changes - which is what these telecons are designed to mark in time.   The EPS spatial synoptic cinema fits that expectation -  for now.

 

You could have just said that’s a Rainer. 

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Layman

Layman

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

I love how jaded you are. Makes everything positive a surprise.  Good attitude 

If I’m ever feeling stressed from work, I just jump on here for a couple minutes and realize I’m good, life is excellent and I’ve got nothing to worry about! Then, with that big smile on my face and feeling of contentment, I carry on with my day enjoying each minute that ticks by. 

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

MJO influence looks to fade. So after that pattern shakes up, I’m not sure how long it holds. Weeklies are voodoo so I’m not sure how much weight they hold. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve heard buckle up since 2023.

Take away…just happy things look to get interesting, and winter like in January.  It’s All we know at the moment, but I’d rather this, than the opposite.  

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

haha LOL  ...

hey, in the spirit of the empathic diplomacy ... choosing words delicately here. 

altho- it's true that that a modulating -nao is in that noise out there. 

I’m kidding. 
 

I do think we wait until later in the first week as we flush out the garbage of the next 7 days and get the Pacific in better shape. 

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  • dendrite changed the title to Jester January

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